Armed Conflict and Adolescents’ Early Transition to Childbearing

Figures & data

Table 1. Index of violence and conflict

$\mathrm{D}\mathrm{i}\mathrm{s}\mathrm{p}\mathrm{l}\mathrm{a}\mathrm{c}\mathrm{e}\mathrm{m}\mathrm{e}\mathrm{n}\mathrm{t}\mathrm{r}\mathrm{a}\mathrm{t}{\mathrm{e}}_{\mathrm{i}2005}$	Coef.		Std Err.	Z	P > z
Confrontations	0.605	***	0.216	2.800	0.005
Armed contact	0.274	***	0.040	6.900	0.000
Total terrorist acts	0.160	**	0.076	2.120	0.034
Homicides and kidnappings per 10,000 inhabitants	0.173	**	0.081	2.140	0.033
Assaults on private property per 10,000 inhabitants	0.580	***	0.212	2.740	0.006
Ambush	0.036		0.291	0.120	0.902
Harassment	0.099		0.121	0.820	0.410
Cons	−1.874	***	0.100	−18.760	0.000

Source: Universidad de los Andes – CEDE and Observatory of the Presidential Programme for Human Rights and International Humanitarian Law.

Table 2. Distributions of the dependent variables by IVC level

	Adolescents aged 12–20				Adolescents aged 12–24
	IVC<0.5	IVC≥0.5	Diff.		IVC<0.5	IVC≥0.5	Diff.
Models in origin	0.082	0.097	0.015	*	0.177	0.202	0.025	*
			(0.0006)				(0.0007)
Context change models	0.258	0.292	0.034	*	0.361	0.398	0.0367	**
			(0.019)				(0.017)
Violence aftermath models	0.199	0.233	0.034		0.328	0.325	−0.002
			(0.025)				(0.023)

Source: Sisben data 2006–2009. Notes: Standard errors in parenthesis. Since the population for the models in origin is larger than 1 million, the coefficients are statistically significant (*) when the t values are greater than or equal to the Leamer–Schwarz critical value, $\sqrt{\mathrm{l}\mathrm{n}\left(N\right)}$. For the context change and violence aftermath models: *** significant at 99 per cent, ** significant at 95 per cent, and * significant at 90 per cent.

Table 3. Models in origin – 2009

	Women aged 12–20			Women aged 12–24
	Coeff.		Odds ratio	Coeff.		Odds ratio
Age in 2009	0.552	*	1.737	0.398	*	1.489
	(0.003)			(0.001)
Living with both parents	−1.275	*	0.280	−1.482	*	0.227
	(0.023)			(0.022)
Education of the head	0.021	*	1.021	0.046	*	1.047
	(0.002)			(0.002)
Sisben 1	0.621	*	1.861	0.657	*	1.928
	(0.014)			(0.012)
From rural areas	0.124	*	1.132	0.251	*	1.285
	(0.020)			(0.017)
IVC	0.121		1.128	0.171		1.186
	(0.088)			(0.085)
Rural*IVC	0.253	*		0.185	*
	(0.054)			(0.048)
Intercept	−3.338	*		−2.330	*
	(0.031)			(0.029)
Var (intercept)	0.280	*		0.288	*
	(0.017)			(0.017)
Var (age)	0.003	*		0.001	*
	(0.000)			(0.000)
Var (both parents)	0.426	*		0.418	*
	(0.026)			(0.023)
Var (head’s education)	0.002	*		0.002	*
	(0.000)			(0.000)
Var (Sisben 1)	0.054	*		0.073	*
	(0.007)			(0.006)
Var (rural)	0.062	*		0.067	*
	(0.007)			(0.005)
Number of zeros	1,231,531			1,519,503
Number of ones	101,677			294,083
Leamer–Schwarz critical value	3.755			3.796

Source: Sisben data 2006–2009. Notes: The reference category for rural is urban; for living with both parents it is living with one or no parents; and for level 1 of Sisben it is level 2. Standard errors in parenthesis. The coefficients are statistically significant (*) when the t values are greater than or equal to the Leamer–Schwarz critical value, $\sqrt{\mathrm{l}\mathrm{n}\left(N\right)}$.

Table 4. Predicted probabilities for an adolescent aged 12–24 when the intercept and the coefficient of ‘from rural areas’ vary based on Table 3

Context:	1 As Table 3	2 Intercept+1 std dev.	3 Coeff. rural+1 std dev.	4 Intercept+1 std dev. and coeff. rural+1 std dev.
Intercept (IVC = 0)	0.089	0.143	0.089	0.143
Probabilities with the following changes:
Rural areas (IVC = 0)	0.111	0.176	0.140	0.217
IVC = 1	0.104	0.165	0.104	0.165
Rural areas and IVC = 1	0.152	0.234	0.188	0.284

Note: The intercept is the value for an adolescent of average age in 2009, from an urban area, who is poor, who lives with one or no parents, whose head of household has an average educational level and who resides in a peaceful area or IVC = 0.

Table 5. Context change models

	Women aged 12–20			Women aged 12–24
	Coeff.		Odds ratio	Coeff.		Odds ratio
Age in 2009	1.035	***	2.815	0.609	***	1.839
	(0.088)			(0.040)
Living with both parents	−0.047		0.954	−0.011		0.989
	(0.202)			(0.148)
Education of the head	−0.035	**	0.966	−0.011		0.989
	(0.018)			(0.011)
Sisben 1	0.612	***	1.844	0.468	***	1.596
	(0.219)			(0.154)
From rural areas	0.056		1.057	0.263	*	1.301
	(0.236)			(0.152)
Exposure time	−0.072	***	0.930	−0.026	**	0.974
	(0.017)			(0.012)
IVC	0.977	**	2.656	0.907	***	2.476
	(0.454)			(0.328)
Intercept	−3.427	***		−1.912	***
	(0.354)			(0.202)
Var (intercept)	1.469	**		0.789	***
	(0.603)			(0.291)
Var (age)	0.304	***		0.078	***
	(0.101)			(0.024)
Var (both parents)	2.667	***		2.451	***
	(0.972)			(0.743)
Var (head’s education)	0.031	***		0.016	***
	(0.012)			(0.005)
Var (Sisben 1)	0.729			1.125	***
	(0.582)			(0.394)
Var (rural)	5.634	***		2.732	***
	(1.655)			(0.700)
Var (exposure time)	0.028	***		0.021	***
	(0.010)			(0.005)
Number of zeros	1964			2393
Number of ones	729			1431

Source: Sisben data 2006–2009. Notes: The reference category for rural is urban; for living with both parents it is living with one or no parents; and for level 1 of Sisben it is level 2. Standard error in parenthesis. *** Significant at 99 per cent, ** significant at 95 per cent, and * significant at 90 per cent.

Table 6. Predicted probabilities for an adolescent when the intercept and the coefficient of ‘from rural areas’ vary based on Table 5

	1		2
Destination:	As Table 5		Intercept+1 std dev.
Age group	12–20	12–24	12–20	12–24
Intercept (IVC = 0)	3.15	12.88	9.84	26.44
Probabilities with the following changes:
IVC = 1	7.94	26.80	22.48	47.08

Note: The intercept corresponds to an adolescent of average age in 2009, from an urban area, who was poor, who lived with one or no parents, whose head of household had an average educational level and who migrated to a peaceful area or IVC = 0.

Table 7. Violence aftermath models

	Women aged 12–20			Women aged 12–24
	Coeff.		Odds ratio	Coeff.		Odds ratio
Age in 2009	1.418	***	4.127	0.587	***	1.798
	(0.189)			(0.041)
Living with both parents	−1.574	***	0.207	−0.125		0.883
	(0.557)			(0.130)
Education of the head	−0.002		0.998	0.013		1.013
	(0.046)			(0.012)
Sisben 1	1.628	*	5.092	0.351	**	1.420
	(0.840)			(0.146)
From rural areas	−1.773	**	0.170	−0.401	*	0.669
	(0.684)			(0.224)
Exposure time	−0.500	***	0.606	−0.166	***	0.847
	(0.082)			(0.018)
IVC	2.823		16.829	−0.519		0.595
	(1.861)			(0.453)
Sisben 1*IVC	−4.790	**
	(2.403)
Rural*IVC				1.142	*
				(0.671)
Intercept	−8.552	***		−1.660	***
	(1.187)			(0.189)
Var (intercept)	16.263	***		0.473	*
	(6.095)			(0.266)
Var (age)	1.818	**		0.159	***
	(0.796)			(0.039)
Var (both parents)	18.056	**		0.728	**
	(7.946)			(0.311)
Var (head’s education)	0.399	***		0.029	***
	(0.155)			(0.006)
Var (Sisben 1)	32.736	***		2.490	***
	(12.541)			(0.611)
Var (rural)	30.990	**		2.028	***
	(12.159)			(0.598)
Var (exposure time)	1.216	***		0.040	***
	(0.426)			(0.009)
Number of zeros	2000			2683
Number of ones	513			1305

Source: Sisben data 2006–2009. Notes: The reference category for rural is urban; for living with both parents it is living with one or no parents; and for level 1 of Sisben it is level 2. Standard errors in parenthesis. *** Significant at 99 per cent, ** significant at 95 per cent, and * significant at 90 per cent.

Table 8. Predicted probabilities for an adolescent when the intercept and the coefficient of Sisben and ‘from rural areas’ vary based on Table 7

Context	1 As Table 7	2 Intercept+1 std dev.	3 Coeff. Sisben l + 1 std dev.	4 Intercept+1 std dev. and coeff. Sisben 1 + 1 std dev.
Age range	12–20	12–20	12–20	12–20
Intercept	0.02%	1.08%	0.02%	1.08%
Probabilities with the following changes:
Sisben 1	0.10%	5.26%	23.10%	94.43%
IVC = 1	0.32%	15.50%	0.32%	15.50%
Sisben 1 and IVC = 1	0.01%	0.77%	4.03%	70.33%
Context	5 As Table 7	6 Intercept+1 std dev.	7 Coeff. rural l + 1 std dev.	8 Intercept+1 std dev. and coeff. rural+1 std dev.
Age range	12–24	12–24	12–24	12–24
Intercept	15.98%	27.45%	15.98%	27.45%
Probabilities with the following changes:
Rural areas	11.29%	20.21%	38.14%	55.10%
IVC = 1	10.16%	18.37%	10.16%	18.37%
Rural areas and IVC = 1	19.18%	32.08%	53.49%	69.59%

Notes: The intercept corresponds to an adolescent of average age in 2009, from an urban area, who was poor, who lived with one or no parents, whose head of household had an average educational level and who migrated to a peaceful area or IVC = 0.