The United States, Bilateral Debt-for-Nature Swaps, and Forest Loss: A Cross-National Analysis

Figures & data

Table 1. Descriptive statistics and bivariate correlation matrix for forest loss analysis N = 85

	Mean	SD	(1)	(2)	(3)	(4)	(5)	(6)	(7)	(8)	(9)	(10)	(11)	(12)	(13)	(14)
(1) Wet Forest Loss, 2001–2014	.146	.234	1.000
(2) Dry Forest Loss, 2001–2014	.104	.197	.464	1.000
(3) Bilateral Debt-For-Nature Swap Conservation Funding, 1990–2000	.461	1.747	−.103	−.076	1.000
(4) Bilateral Debt-For-Nature Swap Debt Reduction, 1990–2000	.491	1.983	−.099	−.071	.978	1.000
(5) Debt Service, 2000	43.371	25.393	.033	.177	−.027	−.025	1.000
(6) International Monetary Fund Loans, 2000	2.782	1.208	.039	−.003	−.056	−.011	.043	1.000
(7) Bilateral Environmental Aid, 1990–2000	.001	.001	−.056	−.013	.117	.137	.098	.131	1.000
(8) Environmental Non-Governmental Organisations, 2000	.001	.001	.013	.030	−.007	.018	.235	.120	.146	1.000
(9) Democracy, 2000	4.082	1.566	.025	−.041	−.233	−.231	.026	.038	−.138	−.168	1.000
(10) Protected Forest Area, 2000	2.389	.883	.118	.005	.116	.100	−.031	−.168	.165	−.220	−.063	1.000
(11) Population Growth Rate, 1990–2000	.200	.139	.390	.323	−.063	−.074	.114	−.344	.019	−.092	.141	.235	1.000
(12) Agricultural Land Area, 2000	3.683	.610	.108	.006	−.012	−.037	−.165	.014	−.128	−.252	.026	.084	−.167	1.000
(13) Gross Domestic Product per capita, 2000	6.617	1.019	−.241	−.203	.258	.276	−.351	−.086	.058	.254	−.443	−.003	−.284	−.078	1.000
(14) Economic Growth Rate, 1990–2000	3.449	3.696	−.077	−.180	−.074	−.089	−.248	.074	−.025	−.307	.251	.183	−.228	.385	−.056	1.000

Table 2. Second stage instrumental variable regression estimate of debt-for-nature swaps on wet forest loss

	Model 1	Model 2	Model 3	Model 4	Model 5	Model 6	Model 7	Model 8	Model 9	Model 10
Independent Variables
Bilateral Debt-For-Nature Swap Conservation Funding, 1990–2000	−.074*		−.077*		−.094*		−.091*		−.088*
	(.038)		(.039)		(.046)		(.043)		(.049)
Bilateral Debt-For-Nature Swap Debt Reduction, 1990–2000		−.620**		−.063*		−.077*		−.075*		−.073*
		(.033)		(.033)		(.038)		(.035)		(.041)
Debt Service, 2000			.001	.001	.001	.001	.001	−.001	−.001	−.001
			(.001)	(.001)	(.001)	(.001)	(.001)	(.001)	(.001)	(.001)
International Monetary Fund Loans, 2000			.001	.006	.008	.013	.034	.040*	.033	.039
			(.024)	(.023)	(.025)	(.024)	(.025)	(.024)	(.024)	(.024)
Bilateral Environmental Aid, 1990–2000			.001	.001	−.001	−.001	−.001	−.001	−.001	−.001
			(.001)	(.001)	(.001)	(.001)	(.001)	(.001)	(.001)	(.001)
Non-Governmental Organisations, 2000					1956.158	2875.303	5157.933	5894.512	4984.996	5509.505
					(9016.68)	(8827.93)	(8554.01)	(8362.75)	(9375.45)	(9169.23)
Democracy, 2000					−.019	−.017	−.029	−.027	−.026	−.024
					(.022)	(.021)	(.020)	(.020)	(.021)	(.020)
Protected Forest Area, 2000					.056	−.054	.031	.029	.036	.034
					(.035)	(.156)	(.034)	(.033)	(.034)	(.034)
Population Growth Rate, 1990–2000							.751***	.761***	.696**	.707**
							(.223)	(.217)	(.234)	(.230)
Agricultural Land Area, 2000							.068	.064	.076	.072
							(.047)	(.046)	(.048)	(.048)
Gross Domestic Product per capita, 2000									−.009	−.007
									(.040)	(.041)
Economic Growth Rate, 1990–2000									−.006	−.006
									(.009)	(.009)
Constant	.180	.177	.171	.152	.106	.080	−.262	−.271	−.212	−.238
R-Squared	.147	.160	.134	.153	.079	.112	.209	.239	.233	.256
Number of Countries	85	85	85	85	85	85	85	85	85	85
Highest Variance Inflation Factor Score	1.00	1.00	1.12	1.13	1.54	1.46	1.58	1.51	2.39	2.48
Mean Variance Inflation Factor Score	1.00	1.00	1.07	1.07	1.23	1.21	1.28	1.26	1.57	1.57
Anderson Under-Identification Test	15.519***	16.176***	15.478***	16.817***	12.472**	14.003***	12.590**	13.999***	10.091**	10.965**
Sargan Over-Identification Test	1.062	1.390	1.137	1.351	.853	1.065	.876	1.165	1.123	1.397
Cragg-Donald Weak Instrument Test	9.157**	9.636**	8.794**	9.742**	6.535*	7.495*	6.433*	7.295*	4.849	5.332*

Notes: * Indicates p < .05, ** indicates p < .01, and *** indicates p < .001 for a one-tailed test. The first number is the unstandardized coefficient, the second number in parentheses is the standard error.

Table 3. Second stage instrumental variable regression estimate of debt-for-nature swaps on dry forest loss

	Model 1	Model 2	Model 3	Model 4	Model 5	Model 6	Model 7	Model 8	Model 9	Model 10
Independent Variables
Bilateral Debt-For-Nature Swap Conservation Funding, 1990–2000	−.074*		−.072*		−.100*		−.106*		−.120*
	(.038)		(.037)		(.032)		(.047)		(.059)
Bilateral Debt-For-Nature Swap Debt Reduction, 1990–2000		−.060*		−.058*		−.081*		−.086*		−.100*
		(.033)		(.031)		(.038)		(.039)		(.049)
Debt Service, 2000			.001	.001	.001	.001	.001	.001	.001	.001
			(.001)	(.001)	(.001)	(.001)	(.001)	(.001)	(.001)	(.001)
International Monetary Fund Loans, 2000			−.009	−.004	−.006	−.001	.010	−.016	.012	.020
			(.021)	(.020)	(.023)	(.022)	(.025)	(.023)	(.026)	(.025)
Bilateral Environmental Aid, 1990–2000			.001	.001	.001	.001	.001	.001	.001	.001
			(.001)	(.001)	(.001)	(.001)	(.001)	(.001)	(.001)	(.001)
Non-Governmental Organisations, 2000					−2414.550	−1423.456	−1217.088	−351.688	−4912.59	−4243.357
					(8358.40)	(8071.32)	(8560.335)	(8250.22)	(10,178.36)	(9851.77)
Democracy, 2000					−.031	−.029	−.039	−.037*	−.031	−.028
					(.021)	(.020)	(.021)	(.020)	(.022)	(.021)
Protected Forest Area, 2000					.017	.014	.004	.001	.012	.009
					(.033)	(.144)	(.224)	(.033)	(.037)	(.036)
Population Growth Rate, 1990–2000							.451*	.463*	.418*	.432*
							(.224)	(.215)	(.251)	(.244)
Agricultural Land Area, 2000							.024	.019	.042	.037
							(.047)	(.045)	(.052)	(.051)
Gross Domestic Product per capita, 2000									.025	.028
									(.045)	(.045)
Economic Growth Rate, 1990–2000									−.009	−.010
									(.010)	(.010)
Constant	.138	.134	.010	.081	.198	.168	.049	.036	−.199	−.236
R-Squared	.038	.001	.001	.039	.211	.137	.211	.133	.352	.285
Number of Countries	85	85	85	85	85	85	85	85	85	85
Highest Variance Inflation Factor Score	1.00	1.00	1.12	1.13	1.54	1.46	1.58	1.51	2.39	2.48
Mean Variance Inflation Factor Score	1.00	1.00	1.07	1.07	1.21	1.21	1.28	1.24	1.57	1.57
Anderson Under-Identification Test	15.519***	16.176***	15.478***	16.817***	12.472**	14.003***	12.590**	13.999***	10.091**	10.965**
Sargan Over-Identification Test	4.225*	4.930*	3.878*	4.318*	3.008	3.514	3.393	4.099	3.082	3.694
Cragg Donald Weak Instruments Test	9.157**	9.636**	8.794**	9.742**	6.535*	7.495*	6.433*	7.295**	4.849	5.332*

Notes: * Indicates p < .05, ** indicates p < .01, and *** indicates p < .001 for a one-tailed test. The first number is the unstandardized coefficient, the second number in parentheses is the standard error.