Compulsory Schooling Laws, Overcrowding, and Youth Crime: A Quasi-Experimental Study of Brazilian Municipalities

Figures & data

Figure 1. Variation in violent youth crime in treated and control municipalities.

Figure 2. Test of pre-trends.

Table 1. Transparency of the treatment variable

	All	Allied Mayor-Gov	Non-allied Mayor-Gov
Variables	(1)	(2)	(3)
Log(population 15–19)	0.0196***	0.0211***	0.0172**
	(0.006)	(0.008)	(0.007)
Constant	0.6199***	0.6271***	0.6335***
	(0.077)	(0.150)	(0.088)
State dummies	Yes	Yes	Yes
Year dummies	Yes	Yes	Yes
State $\times$ year dummies	Yes	Yes	Yes
Observations	49,284	22,727	26,557
R-squared	0.079	0.086	0.079

Notes: The dependent variable is Treated in columns (1)–(3). It is a binary treatment variable that takes a value of 1 if a municipality had experienced an increase in high school enrolment supported by federal educational transfers over 2010–2013 relative to those in 2009; it is zero otherwise. Cluster-robust standard errors by the municipality are shown. Significance level: ***p < 0.01, **p < 0.05, *p < 0.1.

Table 2. Difference-in-difference estimates for crime indicators in rates and levels – OLS and municipality FE estimates, 2006–2013

	15–19 crime rates			Natural logarithm of 15–19 crimes
Variables	Gun deaths	Assault	Violent	Gun deaths	Assault	Violent
Panel 1. OLS
Post $\times$ treated	−0.1619	−0.1491	−0.4109	−0.0230**	−0.0262**	−0.0357**
	(0.134)	(0.142)	(0.284)	(0.012)	(0.011)	(0.016)
Observations	24,803	27,852	23,562	24,803	27,852	23,562
R-squared	0.099	0.084	0.105	0.495	0.512	0.503
Panel 2. Municipality FE baseline
Post $\times$ treated	−0.1981	−0.1684	−0.4579	−0.0282**	−0.0302***	−0.0425***
	(0.134)	(0.142)	(0.283)	(0.011)	(0.011)	(0.016)
Observations	24,803	27,852	23,562	24,803	27,852	23,562
R-squared	0.033	0.027	0.037	0.051	0.044	0.049
No of muni	3243	3638	3078	3243	3638	3078
Panel 3. Municipality FE with additional controls
Post $\times$ treated	−0.1827	−0.1621	−0.5304	−0.0235**	−0.0251**	−0.0393**
	(0.145)	(0.159)	(0.305)	(0.012)	(0.011)	(0.017)
Observations	17,418	19,494	16,552	17,418	19,494	16,552
R-squared	0.020	0.016	0.021	0.029	0.025	0.027
No of muni	3217	3608	3053	3217	3608	3053
Panel 4. Municipality FE baseline using panel 3 sample for each outcome and panel 2 regressors
Post $\times$ treated	−0.1790	−0.1465	−0.4989	−0.0252**	−0.0264**	−0.0407**
	(0.144)	(0.158)	(0.305)	(0.012)	(0.011)	(0.017)
Observations	17,418	19,494	16,552	17,418	19,494	16,552
R-squared	0.018	0.015	0.020	0.028	0.025	0.027
No of muni	3217	3608	3053	3217	3608	3053
Mean dep var	2.221	2.726	5.266	0.396	0.432	0.651

Notes: This table shows the DD estimates of crime (rates and logs) with and without municipality FE using data for 2006–2013. Treated takes a value 1 if a municipality experienced an increase in enrolment coupled with an increase in educational transfers over 2010–2013 relative to 2009; it is zero otherwise. Post = 1 if year> =2010 and 0 otherwise. Controls included in panels 1 and 2 are Treated, Post, mayor gender, mayor graduate, mayor party is the same as President’s party, population, GDP per capita, illiteracy rate, Gini index, public inter-municipal transport, municipal internet services, municipal policing, number of public health clinics, number of public libraries, state dummies, year dummies, and state $\times$ year dummies. Panel 3 includes additional controls: mayor aligned with the state governor, the governor aligned with the president, the share of municipality public expenditure as a fraction of GDP, the fraction of public expenditure devoted to education and health, the number of Bolsa Familia recipients, the amount of Bolsa Familia payments, log of 15- to 19-year-old population. Cluster-robust standard errors by the municipality are shown in parentheses. Significance level: ***p < 0.01, **p < 0.05, *p < 0.1.

Table 3. Treatment effects on school quality indices – municipality FE estimates

Variables	Class size	Share of night students	Fail rate	Age-grade distortion
Panel 1. All municipalities
Post $\times$ treated	0.9113***	0.0192***	0.1602	0.6583***
	(0.095)	(0.004)	(0.128)	(0.204)
Observations	35,925	35,338	35,907	35,801
R-squared	0.241	0.315	0.184	0.447
No of municipalities	5356	5354	5356	5359
Mean of the dependent variable	29.297	0.398	9.783	37.025
Panel 2. Poor municipalities
Post $\times$ treated	1.0876***	0.0123*	0.3930	1.0098**
	(0.196)	(0.007)	(0.250)	(0.417)
Observations	10,525	10,370	10,519	10,518
R-squared	0.271	0.360	0.203	0.487
No of municipalities	1557	1557	1557	1557
Mean of the dependent variable	30.354	0.413	9.837	44.213
Panel 3. Non-poor municipalities
Post $\times$ treated	0.8582***	0.0221***	0.0815	0.5689**
	(0.108)	(0.004)	(0.150)	(0.231)
Observations	25,400	24,968	25,388	25,283
R-squared	0.234	0.303	0.184	0.427
No of municipalities	3799	3797	3799	3802
Mean of the dependent variable	28.8778	0.392	9.650	34.171
Poor/non-poor F-stat (p value)	8.69*** (0.0032)	9.16 *** (0.0025)	0.36 (0.5474)	2.33 (0.1266)

Notes: Other controls are the same as in Table 2 (panel 2). Cluster-robust standard errors by municipality. Significance level: *** p < 0.01, **p < 0.05, *p < 0.1.

Table 4. Heterogeneous impact on youth crime by poor/non-poor municipalities

	Logarithm of 15–19 youth crimes
	Gun deaths	Assault	Violent	Gun deaths	Assault	Violent
(1) All	Poor municipalities			Non-poor municipalities
Post $\times$ treated	−0.0099	−0.0108	−0.0190	−0.0306**	−0.0343**	−0.0447**
	(0.018)	(0.017)	(0.026)	(0.014)	(0.014)	(0.020)
Observations	7757	8717	7396	17,046	19,135	16,166
R-squared	0.058	0.052	0.063	0.066	0.058	0.061
No of muni	1003	1126	955	2240	2512	2123
Mean of the dependent variable	0.206	0.251	0.390	0.479	0.510	0.765
(2) Poor	2009 Class size greater than the median			Class size smaller than the median
Post $\times$ treated	−0.0014	−0.0036	−0.0062	−0.0152	−0.0007	−0.0415
	(0.023)	(0.023)	(0.034)	(0.033)	(0.032)	(0.051)
Observations	5099	5632	4902	2949	3392	2754
R-squared	0.075	0.059	0.075	0.067	0.081	0.089
No of muni	1006	1128	957	678	775	638
Mean of the dependent variable	0.242	0.291	0.444	0.144	0.185	0.293
(3) Non-poor	2009 Class size greater than the median			Class size smaller than the median
Post $\times$ treated	−0.0494**	−0.0570***	−0.0690**	0.0025	−0.0002	0.0018
	(0.021)	(0.020)	(0.029)	(0.019)	(0.018)	(0.031)
Observations	10,668	11,786	10,300	7700	8846	7108
R-squared	0.095	0.080	0.085	0.039	0.034	0.039
No of muni	2296	2579	2176	1645	1872	1535
Mean of the dependent variable	0.645	0.679	0.981	0.248	0.284	0.451

Notes: Other controls are the same as in Table 2 (panel 2). Cluster-robust standard errors by municipality. Significance level: ***p < 0.01, **p < 0.05, *p < 0.1.

Table A1. Variable definitions, sources, and summary statistics

Variable	Description	Obs	Mean	Std. dev.	Source
Gun death rate 15–19	Rate of the number of deaths by guns and resident youth population (15 to 19 years old) $\times$10,000	26,776	2.220948	4.957573	DATASUS
Assault death rate 15–19	Rate of number of deaths by assault and resident youth population (15 to 19 years old) $\times$10,000	30,087	2.726002	5.599788	DATASUS
Violent death rate 15–19	Rate of number of violent deaths and resident youth population (15 to 19 years old) $\times$10,000	25,407	5.266497	10.21039	DATASUS
Gun deaths 15–19	Logarithm of number of deaths by guns – people from 15 to 19 years old	30,087	0.4315466	0.784622	DATASUS
Assault deaths 15–19	Logarithm of number of deaths by assault (aggressions) – people from 15 to 19 years old	25,407	0.6505063	1.019898	DATASUS
Violent deaths 15–19	logarithm of sum of deaths by gun and assault –people from 15 to 19 years old	44,463	0.599	1.00014	DATASUS
Gun death rate 15–19 male	Rate of number of male deaths by guns and resident youth population (15 to 19 years old) $\times$10,000	25,024	2.178973	4.835747	DATASUS
Assault death rate 15–19 male	Rate of number of male deaths by assault and resident youth population (15 to 19 years old) $\times$10,000	28,407	2.56662	5.34952	DATASUS
Violent death rate 15–19 male	Rate of number of violent male deaths and resident youth population (15 to 19 years old) $\times$10,000	23,895	5.054264	9.90553	DATASUS
Gun deaths 15–19 male	Logarithm of number of male deaths by guns – people from 15 to 19 years old	25,024	0.4031734	0.7797929	DATASUS
Assault deaths 15–19 male	Logarithm of number of male deaths by assault (aggressions) – people from 15 to 19 years old	28,407	0.4264219	0.7824821	DATASUS
Violent deaths 15–19 male	logarithm of sum of male deaths by gun and assault – people from 15 to 19 years old	23,895	0.6493514	1.02204	DATASUS
Hospitalisations 15–19	Number of hospitalisations due to aggressions among 15 to 19 years old	31,462	2.916498	7.269107	DATASUS
Suicide deaths 15–19	Logarithm of number of deaths by suicide deaths 15 to 19 years old	21,784	0.1291117	0.3242839	DATASUS
High-school enrolments	Number of enrolments at high school	44,296	1511.267	8892.608	INEP
Treated	It is 1 if the municipality 15–19 enrolments and federal transfers over 2010–2013 are both greater than those in 2009; 0 otherwise.	49,284	0.5241052	0.4994237	INEP
Treated intensity	Size of the annual increase in high school enrolment after 2009 relative to that in 2009 in the treated municipalities receiving federal transfers.	46,855	1.953936	1.341144	INEP
Treated net	It takes a value one if there is an increase in the high school enrolment net of high school dropout as well as an increase in federal educational transfers during 2010–2013 relative to 2009; 0 otherwise	49,167	0.5531759	0.4971693	INEP
GDP per capita	logarithm of municipal gross domestic product per capita – prices of 2000	44,384	1.601258	0.7319205	IBGE
Mayor education	binary variable: 1 = mayor graduated at a college; 0 = the opposite	50,328	0.5167899	0.499723	TCU
Mayor aligned with President	Mayor and President are from the same party	50,328	0.3595017	0.4798591	TCU
Mayor aligned with Governor	Mayor and state governor are from the same party	50,328	0.4585718	0.4982857	TCU
Governor aligned with the President	State governor and President are from the same party	50,328	0.1552615	0.3621574	TCU
Gini index	Gini index by municipalities, according to the residents’ distribution of income	44,512	0.5052046	0.0730255	IBGE
Population	Municipal resident population	44,708	33947.76	200647.2	TCU
Population 15–19 years old	15–19 years old resident population	50,076	3067.374	15812.7	TCU
Illiteracy rate	Illiteracy rate – people older than 15 years old.	42,818	0.3264535	0.0892025	IBGE
Class size	Number of enrolments at high school	44,372	29.29758	6.174631	INEP
Night school enrolment rate	Number of students in night schools over total of high school students	37,994	0.3978946	0.2335122	INEP
Fail rate	Number of all high school students who failed the grade	44,352	9.783958	5.983803	INEP
Age-grade distortion	Number of students older than the ideal age for the current grade over total of high school students	38,834	37.02474	18.03483	INEP
Dropout rate after middle school	Dropout rate at elementary and middle school	44,352	11.62899	5.364612	INEP
Municipal police	Municipality with municipal police	50,076	0.1597372	0.3663658	IBGE
Poor municipality	Municipality with less than half minimum wage as income per capita	50,076	0.2843278	0.4510982	IBGE
Mayor gender	Mayor gender	50,328	0.3595017	0.4798591	TCU
Education board	Municipality has an education board	50,076	0.3461339	0.4757412	IBGE
Safety board	Municipality has a safety board	50,071	0.0973418	0.2964256	IBGE
Employment/ income index	Composite index of employment and income	49,832	0.4814732	0.1364881	FIRJAN
Public transport	Existence of public transport to/from other municipalities in 2008	50,076	0.8172178	0.3864917	IBGE
Internet services	Public services on Internet of municipal government in 2009	50,076	0.7715672	0.4198271	IBGE
Public clinics	Number of public clinics in 2009	50,076	11.37078	23.66731	IBGE
Public libraries	Number of public libraries	50,049	1.267398	2.740802	IBGE
Share public expenditure	Share of municipality public expenditure as a fraction of GDP	31,215	0.148764	0.084807	IPEA
Bolsa Família	Number of Bolsa Família recipients	38,948	2181.603	6557.838	IPEA
Bolsa Família values	Amount of Bolsa Familia payments	44,511	237910.2	741162.4	IPEA
Urban	Percentage of municipal population living in urban areas	50,076	48.28939	34.27246	IBGE
Audited	Municipality has not been audited	38,976	0.0256055	0.1579573	CGU
Health expenditure rate	Municipal expenditure in health/total municipal expenditure	31,169	0.2988212	0.0745723	IPEA
Education expenditure rate	Municipal expenditure in education/total municipal expenditure	31,193	0.4119367	0.1192844	IPEA

Notes: DATASUS: Health Informatics Department of the Brazilian Ministry of Health; INEP: National Institute for Educational Studies and Research ‘Anísio Teixeira’; IBGE: Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics; TCU: Tribunal de Contas da União – Federal court accounts; FIRJAN: Federation of Industries of Rio de Janeiro; IPEA: Institute of Applied Economic Research; CGU: Corregedoria Geral da União’s (CGU) anti-corruption program.