Confidence Charms: How Superstition Influences Overconfidence Bias in Han and the Qiang Ethnic Minority Chinese

Abstract

The overconfidence effect is a cognitive bias in which individuals’ subjective confidence in their judgements is greater than their actual performance. Extending beyond a range of contributing factors in the emergence of the overconfidence bias, the present research examines whether superstition, an under-explored yet important factor, can influence people’s perceived level of confidence. Drawing on previous findings regarding the consequences of superstitions, we propose that activating the good-luck-related superstitions can increase overconfidence in one’s judgment. Specifically, Experiments 1 and 2 show that Chinese Han student and non-student participants, who were activated by different types of superstitions, displayed a higher level of overconfidence than those in the absence of superstition. Experiment 3 fully replicated the causal effect of superstition beliefs on the heightened overconfidence bias in a traditional population of Chinese Qiang people. Moreover, Experiments 1 through 3 consistently show that self-efficacy mediates the relationship between superstition and overconfidence. Taken together, these findings suggest that superstition strengthens people’s belief in their own performance ability, which in turn boosts overconfidence.

Keywords:

• Superstition
• self-efficacy
• overconfidence
• cross-cultural
• cognitive bias

Additional information

Notes on contributors

Heng Li

Heng Li is a Cognitive Linguistics and psycholinguistics professor in the College of International Studies at Southwest University. His work seeks to explore cultural and individual differences in cognitive processing. His multidisciplinary interests bring him to address this question from various interrelated perspectives: cognitive linguistics, signed languages, spontaneous gestures, experimental studies and field research.