Norwegian low-intensity ovine and bovine farming systems—a resilience perspective

Figures & data

Fig. 1. The SURE-Farm framework for resilience assessment

Fig. 2. Farm size at county level in Norway in 2017 (Statistics Norway n.d.,e)

Fig. 3. Change in agricultural land (Statistics Norway n.d.,d) and change in the number of farms (Statistics Norway n.d.,c) in four counties in Norway between 2007 and 2017

Fig. 4. Changes in types of livestock production at county level from 1998 to 2017; data for poultry unavailable for several years for Sogn og Fjordane (Statistics Norway n.d.,h)

Fig. 5. Changes in production of cereals, fruit (including berries), and vegetables (including potatoes) between 1999 and 2017 (Statistics Norway n.d.,g)

Table 1. Resilience attributes in 2018 (when interviews were held), and in SSP1 Sustainability and SSP5 Fossil-fueled development

Resilience attributes	Situation when interviews were held	SSP1 Sustainability	SSP5 Fossil-fueled development
Resources to implement sustainable production	Compliance with requirements for agricultural land and cultural landscape support
	Payments had been held back in rather few cases	Although assumed stricter environmental laws result in stricter requirements for agricultural land and cultural landscape support, most farmers are able to adhere to these requirements.	The assumed focus on local environmental problems comprises stricter environmental laws resulting in stricter requirements for agricultural land and cultural landscape support. However, most farmers are able to adhere to these requirements.
	Availability of areas for spraying manure
	In most municipalities, farmers either experienced few challenges with access to spraying areas or they had found solutions to handle potential challenges.	Assumed stricter environmental laws causing a need for larger spraying areas have become a serious problem for some municipalities, not at least since availability of agricultural land decreases. In other municipalities, livestock farmers can still enter into agreements with farmers who have enough land or lack manure. However, the former solution is less available due to decreased availability of agricultural land.	The assumed focus on local environmental problems that comprise stricter environmental laws causing a need for larger spraying areas is not a challenge for farms since availability of agricultural land is not a limiting factor.
	Availability of agricultural land
	Access to infields was a medium to big challenge. Access to infields was a greater challenge in densely settled areas than in more economically marginal areas. Outfields were readily available to some extent.	Due to the assumed increase in environmental restrictions and following reduced availability of land, especially farmers in centrally located areas will experience challenges to gaining access to infield areas. Outfield areas will most likely still be more available than infield areas, but reduced imports of ingredients for concentrate feed production may result in increased interest in and competition for outfields. Assumed increased costs of fuel may result in even stronger competition for land located in close vicinity of the farms. Use of technological innovation and other developments in types of production resulting in higher productivity may reduce competition for land.	Due to the assumed availability of land as a result of increased productivity, access to both infields and outfields is not a challenge for farmers. Land is available irrespective of where it is located within the municipalities.
	Price of agricultural land
	The price of agricultural land was either a medium or small challenge. Little land was sold.	Assumed increased prices of agricultural land might result in serious problems in some municipalities but cause medium challenges in others.	Due to the assumed availability of agricultural land, the price of land remains a medium or small challenge.
	Investments in the farm
	Farmers had mainly invested in the renewal of farm buildings, drainage, and cultivation of new land. Investments had been delayed to varying degrees.	Cultivation of new land may become restricted due to assumed stricter environmental regulations. To keep up with the use of technological innovation and other developments in types of production, comprehensive investments are necessary, especially regarding machinery. Farms already lagging in terms of investments may decide to practice farm exit.	Cultivation of new land may become restricted due to assumed stricter environmental regulations. To keep up with the use of technological innovation and other developments in types of production, comprehensive investments are necessary, especially in machinery. Farms already lagging in terms of investments may decide to practice farm exit.
	Share of part-time versus full-time farmers
	Within about three-quarters of the municipalities, the share of part-time farmers was higher than the share of full-time farmers.	Part-time farmers are challenged by the time needed to produce food, such as vegetables, that would satisfy the assumed change in consumer preferences. The assumed increased food prices may make it attractive for part-time farmers to become full-time farmers.	Assumed low prices of food, increased productivity, increased spending on feedstuff and imports of meat challenge the economic viability of meat production, despite higher meat consumption. Full-time farmers may have a larger capacity to handle the situation, while part-time farmers may have to rely on additional sources of income.
	Use of local fodder resources
	Silage and, in about half of the municipalities, some amounts of hay were produced. Outfields were used as pasture, and ca. 10–30% of the total fodder uptake was in outfields.	Due to an assumed focus on own feed resources, the use of local fodder resources increases. Use of technological innovation and other developments in types of production will be necessary to produce enough fodder, also in outfields, and to produce concentrated feed without the need for imported ingredients. Increased use of local fodder resources is challenged by a reduced availability of agricultural land.	Due to assumed import of concentrated feed, the need for local fodder resources is declining. This concerns fodder from infields, as well as from outfields.
	Employment of foreign seasonal workers
	Foreign seasonal workers were to a little degree employed in milk and meat production. Fruit (including berries) production was strongly dependent on seasonal workers.	The assumed moderate availability of a labor force does not result in many challenges for milk and meat producers but fruit producers face increasing challenges in finding seasonal workers.	The assumed easy availability of laborers has not resulted in challenges for many producer.
	Resources to provide cowsheds in accordance with coming regulations
	Farms that were big enough or that had the potential to grow would be able to provide appropriate cowsheds. Other farms would exit milk production. Availability of outdoor areas for cattle close to the cowsheds varied among the five counties.	Stricter environmental laws do not comprise new regulations for animal welfare.	Stricter environmental laws do not comprise new regulations for animal welfare.
Farm heterogeneity	Product diversity at farm level
	Product diversity varied among municipalities; between 15% and 85% of the farms had at least two types of production. Farms had become more specialized.	The assumed changed consumer preferences towards less milk and meat consumption and increased fruit and vegetable consumption challenge farmers with meat and milk production, especially those focusing entirely on those products. Most interviewees at county level agreed that the changed consumer preferences would result in declined production and farm exit. Farmers combining sheep and cereal/berry production may find it easier to respond to consumer preferences. Specialization at farm level may make it difficult to respond to consumer preferences.	Specialized farms may be able to respond more easily to increased meat demand than more diverse farms but lower prices and increased competition with imported food will also challenge specialized farms.
	Product diversity at county level
Region diversity and redundancy	Product diversity at county level had increased.	Increased product diversity at county level (especially a greater selection of vegetables) may allow larger regions to respond to changed consumer preferences. A diversity at county level may allow to offer a greater selection of products over a larger part of the year.	Specialization at county level may be necessary to develop strong enough regions to respond to the need for increased productivity.
	Types of collaboration
Opportunities for collaboration	Joint use of cowsheds increased farmers’ opportunities to implement technical innovations and to reduce their workloads. The possibility to rent unfilled milk quotas had reduced the need for collaboration. Other types of collaboration occurred within livestock keeping and shared machinery, but they might have been decreasing due to growing farms and declining farming communities.	A potential demand to change types of production to satisfy consumer needs may increase the need for knowledge exchange and cooperation Use of technological innovations and other developments in types of production many increase the need to make investments in the farm, which in turn may increase the need for cooperation.	Cooperation, especially in the form of knowledge exchange, among farmers may be needed to enable farmers to develop specialized regions to respond to increased competition with imported food and reduced food prices. Use of technological innovations and other developments in types of production many increase the need to make investments in the farm, which in turn may increase the need for cooperation.
	Local food production and processing
Stakeholder engagement	With the exception of in one municipality, few farmers were involved in local food production and processing.	Producers are not prepared to meet the changed consumer preferences. However, the interviewees saw opportunities for increased production.	Consumer preferences are not assumed to require more production and processing of local food.
Open attitude to innovation	With the exception of in one municipality, little local food production and processing occurred in the municipalities.	Producers are not prepared to meet the changed consumer preferences. However, the interviewees saw opportunities for increased production.	Consumer preferences are not assumed to require more production and processing of local food.
	Organic production
	Few farmers had organic production. There seemed to be little interest in starting organic production.	Producers are not prepared to meet the changed consumer preferences. The interviewees pointed out that increased demand might result in a producer response in terms of increased production. However, they feared that increased demand might be covered by imports.	Consumer preferences are not assumed to require more organic production.
	Use of technological innovation and other developments in types of production
	Technological innovations had been taken into use. However, it would take time before they would become widespread. To make the use of milking robots economically viable, the number of cows per farm needed to be higher than the national average in 2017. Productivity per cow had increased.	Technological innovations such as precision agriculture are important in order to increase productivity.	Technical innovations, such as precision agriculture, are the key to increase productivity in order to tackle low prices and competition from imported food.

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