Projected changes of rain, sleet, and snowfall in Norway

Figures & data

Fig. 1. Study area and selected tourism regions

Table 1. Model combinations retrieved from the high-resolution Euro-CORDEX data set

Global climate model and realisation	Regional climate model	Institution that performed the simulation
CNRM-CERFACS-CM5_r1i1p1	CCLM4-8-17	Climate Limited-area Modelling Community (CLM-Community)
CNRM-CERFACS-CM5_r1i1p1	RCA4	Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SMHI), Rossby Centre
ICHEC-EC-EARTH_r12i1p1	CCLM4-8-17	CLM-Community
ICHEC-EC-EARTH_r3i1p1	HIRHAM5	Danish Meteorological Institute (DMI)
ICHEC-EC-EARTH_r1i1p1	RACMO22E	Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI)
ICHEC-EC-EARTH_r12i1p1	RCA4	SMHI
MOHC-HadGEM2-ES_r1i1p1	RCA4	SMHI
IPSL-CM5A-MR_r1i1p1	RCA4	SMHI
MPI-ESM-LR_r1i1p1	CCLM4-8-17	CLM-Community
MPI-ESM-LR_r1i1p1	RCA4	SMHI

Note: *An open international network of scientists working in the area of regional climate modelling and climate change (Climate Limited-area Modelling Community n.d.)

Table 2. Average annual and seasonal precipitation as rain, sleet and snow, and number of days with precipitation as rain, sleet and snow in Norway during the period 1971–2000, based on the ensemble-mean of 10 bias-adjusted series in the COR-BA dataset, with percentage of total precipitation and number of days with precipitation in the different phases given for the COR-BA dataset and the observation based reference dataset

Precipitation phase	Season	Average precipitation COR-BA (mm)	Percentage of annual or seasonal precipitation		Average number of precipitation days COR-BA	Percentage of annual or seasonal precipitation days
			COR-BA	REF		COR-BA	REF
Rain	Annual	1026	64%	54%	136	56%	53%
	Winter	174	38%	29%	12	19%	18%
	Spring	149	51%	40%	24	44%	41%
Sleet	Annual	198	12%	11%	26	11%	10%
	Winter	86	19%	16%	9	14%	13%
	Spring	52	18%	17%	8	15%	16%
Snow	Annual	370	23%	34%	80	33%	37%
	Winter	203	44%	55%	42	67%	69%
	Spring	92	31%	43%	22	41%	43%
Total precipitation	Annual	1594	100%	100%	242	100%	100%
	Winter	462	100%	100%	63	100%	100%
	Spring	292	100%	100%	54	100%	100%

Fig. 2. Average number of days per year with (a) rain, (b) sleet and (c) snow during the period 1971–2000, according to the COR-BA dataset

Table 3. Average values (mm) of the annual and seasonal amounts of rain, sleet, snow, and total precipitation in Norway during the reference period 1971–2000 and for the two scenario periods 2031–2060 and 2071–2100 under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, with all values as ensemble medians based on the COR-BA dataset, and change from reference period (in %) given for the scenarios

Precipitation phase	Season	Reference	rcp4.5		rcp8.5
		1971–2000	2031–2060	2071–2100	2031–2060	2071–2100
Rain	Annual	1026	1230 (+20%)	1334 (+30%)	1299 (+27%)	1561 (+52%)
	Winter	174	232 (+33%)	267 (+54%)	260 (+50%)	355 (+105%)
	Spring	149	190 (+28%)	221 (+49%)	204 (+37%)	258 (+74%)
Sleet	Annual	198	182 (-8%)	170 (-14%)	174 (-12%)	138 (-31%)
	Winter	86	87 (+1%)	82 (-4%)	85 (-1%)	74 (-13%)
	Spring	52	51 (-2%)	50 (-3%)	50 (-3%)	41 (-20%)
Snow	Annual	370	252 (-32%)	210 (-43%)	226 (-39%)	139 (-63%)
	Winter	203	150 (-26%)	126 (-38%)	139 (-31%)	93 (-54%)
	Spring	92	64 (-31%)	54 (-41%)	56 (-39%)	36 (-61%)
All phases (sum)	Annual	1594	1663 (+4%)	1714 (+8%)	1699 (+7%)	1838 (+15%)
	Winter	462	468 (+1%)	475 (+3%)	484 (+5%)	522 (+13%)
	Spring	292	304 (+4%)	325 (+11%)	310 (+6%)	335 (+15%)

Fig. 3. Change (% of 1971–2000 average) in annual precipitation sums as (a) rain, (b) sleet and (c) snow from the period 1971–2000 to the period 2071–2100 under RCP4.5, according to the COR-BA dataset

Table 4. Average number of days per year or season with rain, sleet, snow, and total precipitation in Norway during the reference period 1971–2000 and for the two scenario periods 2031–2060 and 2071–2100 under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, with all values as ensemble medians based on the COR-BA dataset

Precipitation phase	Season	Reference	rcp4.5		rcp8.5
		1971–2000	2031–2060	2071–2100	2031–2060	2071–2100
Rain	Annual	136	152	161	157	180
	Winter	12	17	22	20	28
	Spring	24	30	34	32	39
Sleet	Annual	26	25	24	24	21
	Winter	9	10	10	10	11
	Spring	8	9	8	8	7
Snow	Annual	80	57	48	52	33
	Winter	42	33	29	31	22
	Spring	22	15	13	14	9
All phases (sum)	Annual	242	232	233	233	234
	Winter	63	60	61	61	61
	Spring	54	54	55	54	55

Fig. 4. Change in average annual number of days with precipitation as (a) rain, (b) sleet and (c) snow from the period 1971–2000 to the period 2071–2100 under RCP4.5, according to the COR-BA dataset

Fig. 5. Distribution in tourism region W3 of rain, sleet, and snow for different altitude intervals in winter (December, January, February) and spring (March, April, May) in the reference period 1971–2000 (left-hand panels), and projections for the period 2031–2060 (right-hand panels) under RCP4.5, according to the COR-BA dataset

Fig. 6. Distribution in tourist region E3 of rain, sleet, and snow for different altitude intervals in winter (December, January, February) and spring (March, April, May) in the reference period 1971–2000 (left-hand panels), and projections for the period 2031–2060 (right-hand panels) under RCP4.5, according to the COR-BA dataset

Fig. 7. Distribution in tourism region N4 of rain, sleet, and snow for different altitude intervals in winter (December, January, February) and spring (March, April, May) in the reference period 1971–2000 (left-hand panels), and projections for the period 2031–2060 (right-hand panels) under RCP4.5, according to the COR-BA dataset

Fig. 8. Annual number of days with precipitation as of rain, sleet, and snow for different altitude intervals in winter (December, January, February) and spring (March, April, May) in the reference period 1971–2000 (left-hand panels), and projected changes to the period 2031–2060 (right-hand panels) under RCP4.5, according to the COR-BA dataset, for tourism regions W3 (panel/row a), E3 (panel/row b), and N4 (panel/row c)

Table 5. Distribution of rain, sleet, and snow in winter (December, January, February) during the reference period 1971–2000 and for the projections for the period 2031–2060 under RCP4.5

		0–300 m a.s.l.			300–600 m a.s.l.			600–900 m a.s.l.			900–1200 m a.s.l.			1200–1500 m a.s.l.			1500–1800 m a.s.l.
Tourism region	Period	Rain	Sleet	Snow	Rain	Sleet	Snow	Rain	Sleet	Snow	Rain	Sleet	Snow	Rain	Sleet	Snow	Rain	Sleet	Snow
E1	1971–2000	26	27	81	20	29	108	15	28	147	14	23	187	–	–	–	–	–	–
	2031–2060	48	35	63	33	44	91	23	45	136	18	35	190	–	–	–	–	–	–
E2	1971–2000	13	13	43	23	22	69	25	29	132	34	38	205	39	45	302	32	41	371
	2031–2060	26	17	32	40	25	53	42	40	108	52	52	178	54	62	275	43	54	354
E3	1971–2000	–	–	–	12	14	78	11	14	138	10	13	161	8	11	179	8	12	170
	2031–2060	–	–	–	25	20	63	19	25	127	16	24	155	12	19	181	12	19	171
W1	1971–2000	517	63	41	640	169	114	547	320	286	406	420	533	102	176	853	–	–	–
	2031–2060	592	33	18	783	110	54	728	277	168	579	428	362	150	207	798	–	–	–
W2	1971–2000	615	76	47	710	183	112	663	321	229	372	325	391	141	198	569	138	236	700
	2031–2060	703	38	21	877	105	50	890	238	111	542	311	245	213	227	470	203	292	574
W3	1971–2000	439	87	74	508	161	137	463	238	219	310	273	339	167	207	429	116	182	609
	2031–2060	528	49	38	654	99	72	649	173	118	471	257	207	254	238	312	173	243	487
M	1971–2000	342	84	96	365	124	165	327	148	244	272	161	329	207	150	386	143	124	429
	2031–2060	422	59	46	471	99	88	442	132	147	385	159	221	300	163	281	211	145	340
N1	1971–2000	365	96	132	373	159	244	322	202	346	315	248	475	–	–	–	–	–	–
	2031–2060	439	64	65	491	121	141	454	176	221	452	244	324	–	–	–	–	–	–
N2	1971–2000	370	119	128	417	171	211	429	222	318	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–
	2031–2060	508	77	39	607	127	72	655	188	126	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–
N3	1971–2000	120	64	152	91	60	190	60	46	208	61	49	247	80	61	299	104	92	474
	2031–2060	196	66	82	150	74	128	90	64	172	82	71	219	98	90	265	126	138	432
N4	1971–2000	26	19	93	9	9	89	25	26	182	33	40	262	18	27	267	–	–	–
	2031–2060	49	27	69	17	16	83	44	44	161	55	66	234	25	37	275	–	–	–

Table 6. Distribution of rain, sleet and snow in spring (March, April, May) during the reference period 1971–2000 and for the projections for the period 2031–2060 under RCP4.5, with values given for the 11 tourist regions shown in Fig. 1, and in each region for different 300 m a.s.l. altitude intervals

		0–300 m a.s.l			300–600 m a.s.l			600–900 m a.s.l			900–1200 m a.s.l			1200–1500 m a.s.l.			1500–1800 m a.s.l.
Tourism region	Period	Rain	Sleet	Snow	Rain	Sleet	Snow	Rain	Sleet	Snow	Rain	Sleet	Snow	Rain	Sleet	Snow	Rain	Sleet	Snow
E1	1971–2000	111	15	17	108	23	30	104	32	54	94	34	92	–	–	–	–	–	–
	2031–2060	140	12	11	141	21	20	136	36	41	118	49	76	–	–	–	–	–	–
E2	1971–2000	55	5	7	57	9	13	69	20	35	70	30	73	52	33	131	37	29	180
	2031–2060	66	5	4	69	8	8	88	19	24	92	33	55	68	41	108	46	38	161
E3	1971–2000	–	–	–	68	13	25	66	22	57	58	26	82	44	30	108	30	31	131
	2031–2060	–	–	–	87	11	17	87	23	44	78	31	66	62	37	97	46	42	121
W1	1971–2000	326	22	10	387	77	35	324	162	110	240	195	242	128	94	330	–	–	–
	2031–2060	366	10	5	474	42	14	434	138	54	316	231	148	148	142	290	–	–	–
W2	1971–2000	388	24	11	443	78	36	382	171	104	206	153	220	101	86	291	69	78	420
	2031–2060	421	10	6	521	40	14	500	130	43	268	182	132	126	114	238	80	104	381
W3	1971–2000	292	26	15	331	71	42	273	125	101	165	126	199	86	78	257	52	59	358
	2031–2060	320	13	8	395	39	18	356	104	46	210	159	122	103	107	207	60	76	325
M	1971–2000	272	41	30	271	81	73	205	101	141	126	105	225	63	79	286	32	48	320
	2031–2060	298	24	14	326	57	34	266	93	78	172	119	151	85	104	222	40	67	276
N1	1971–2000	309	52	44	296	109	116	200	162	211	123	196	363	–	–	–	–	–	–
	2031–2060	351	31	20	375	81	59	290	152	124	184	239	247	–	–	–	–	–	–
N2	1971–2000	263	68	52	243	126	129	177	184	253	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–
	2031–2060	333	37	21	361	90	49	330	162	118	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–
N3	1971–2000	123	43	64	76	52	102	35	37	129	21	27	171	17	24	232	13	25	383
	2031–2060	172	34	30	123	53	61	57	55	96	28	48	150	17	32	232	18	22	398
N4	1971–2000	50	19	46	29	16	54	26	28	120	15	24	190	6	9	170	–	–	–
	2031–2060	73	19	28	44	19	40	45	42	96	24	44	172	7	12	175	–	–	–

Climate Limited-area Modelling Community. n.d. ‘Climate Limited-area Modelling Community’. https://www.clm-community.eu/ (accessed 23 May 2024).

 Google Scholar