Global Divergence in Nuclear Power Plant Construction: The Role of Political Decentralization

Figures & data

Fig. 1. OCC of NPPs in the United States.²²

Fig. 2. LT of NPPs in the United States (source: IAEA).

TABLE I Count of Completed Reactors by Country as April 6, 2021

Western Bloc		Eastern Bloc		East Asia		Other
United States	133	USSR	69	Japan	59	India	22
France	70	Czechoslovakia	13	China	49	Pakistan	5
United Kingdom	45	Russia (post 1991)	8	South Korea	26	Argentina	3
West Germany	30	East Germany	6	Taiwan	6	Mexico	2
Canada	25	Bulgaria	6			Brazil	2
Sweden	13	Hungary	4			South Africa	2
Spain	10	Romania	2			Yugoslavia	1
Belgium	8					Iran	1
Switzerland	6					UAE	1
Italy	4
Finland	4
Netherlands	2
Subtotal	350	Subtotal	108	Subtotal	140	Subtotal	39

TABLE II Descriptive Statistics of NPP LT by Region*

Region	Mean	Standard Deviation	N
Western Bloc	7.6	3.4	350
Eastern Bloc	7.7	2.9	106
East Asia	5.5	1.4	139
Global South	10.6	5.0	38
World	7.4	3.3	633

*In years.

TABLE III Lead Time by Type of Reactor*

Acronym	Reactor Type	Mean	Standard Deviation	N
PWR	Pressurized water reactor	7.5	3.2	359
BWR	Boiling water reactor	6.5	3.0	116
PHWR	Pressurized heavy water reactor	8.3	3.4	57
GCR	Gas-cooled reactor	7.6	4.9	52
LWGR	Light water graphite reactor	6.5	1.5	30
Other	Miscellaneous reactor types	8.3	3.4	23
Total		7.4	3.3	637

*In years.

TABLE IV Descriptive Statistics of Decentralization by Global Region

	Has Federal Constitution		RAI Self-Rule Index
Region	mean	n	mean	n
East Asia	0.00	140	11.3	140
Western Bloc	0.58	350	17.0	350
Eastern Bloc	0.83	108	11.6	8
Global South	0.92	39	17.7	36
World	0.51	637	15.5	534

TABLE V Marginal Effects of Design Characteristics on NPP LT*

	Marginal Effect	(Standard Error)
100 MW(electric) increase in power output	5.7%	(0.8%)
1°C increase in reactor outlet temperature	0.2%	(0.04%)
1 MPa increase in operating pressure of the primary coolant	−0.6%	(1.9%)
One additional primary coolant loop	3.1%	(1.3%)
One additional pump/circulator in the reactor coolant system	−0.2%	(1.1%)
OTC to discharge waste heat	−13.2%	(3.4%)
Standardized reactor design	−10.3%	(3.9%)
Measurement error related to multi-unit construction	10.0%	(2.2%)
Reactor Type Fixed Effects
PWR: pressurized water reactor (reference category)	—	—
BWR: boiling water reactor	−27.4%	(12.5%)
PHWR: pressurized heavy water reactor	−13.3%	(13.9%)
GCR: gas-cooled reactor	−28.4%	(21.3%)
LWGR: light water graphite reactor	−22.8%	(17.9%)
Other: miscellaneous reactor designs	−22.6%	(23.3%)
Containment Design Fixed Effects
Large dry (reference category)	—	—
Subatmospheric	−6.2%	(12.8%)
Vacuum building	2.0%	(14.4%)
Ice condenser	16.5%	(11.2%)
Mark I	41.6%	(21.4%)
Mark II	45.3%	(23.0%)
Mark III	42.2%	(23.1%)
Other BWR containment design	36.4%	(22.7%)
No containment	35.0%	(29.7%)
Other containment/missing data	53.6%	(20.4%)
Country fixed effects	✓
Year fixed effects	✓
Observations	582

*Dependent variable: $ln(L{T}_i)$.

TABLE VI Predictors of Reactor Design Standardization*

	(1)	(2)	(3)
GDP per capita	1.93	0.93	5.15
One standard deviation increase in $ln(GDPp{c}_{c,y})$	(1.30)	(−0.18)	(1.64)
Democracy	0.75	3.43	2.57
One standard deviation increase in $Dem$	(−0.97)	(3.23)	(2.21)
Decentralization	0.94
1 if country has a federal constitution	(−0.10)
One standard deviation increase in $De{c}_{c,y}$		0.67	1.31
		(−1.21)	(0.46)
Population			2.76
$ln(Po{p}_{c,y})$			(2.21)
Electricity sector fragmentation			0.26
$ln(NumUti{l}_c)$			(−2.02)
Investor-owned utility	0.19	0.31	1.04
$IO{U}_i$	(−2.36)	(−1.77)	(0.05)
Time trend	1.12	1.17	1.09
Year construction began	(3.59)	(5.27)	(2.33)
Observations	774	626	626

*Dependent variable: 1 if the reactor is standardized, 0 otherwise; odds ratio shown with t-statistics in parentheses.

TABLE VII Estimation Results of Eq. (4(4) $ln(\widehat{\mathrm{L}{\mathrm{T}}_i})={\beta }_{1}ln(\mathrm{G}\mathrm{D}\mathrm{P}p{c}_{c,y})+{\beta }_{2}De{m}_{c,y}+{\beta }_{3}De{c}_{c,y}+{\epsilon }_i.$(4) )*

	(1)	(2)	(3)
GDP per capita	12.2%	13.1%	−2.15%
One standard deviation increase in $ln(GDPp{c}_{c,y})$	(1.79)	(1.51)	(−0.41)
Democracy	1.11%	−0.35%	4.57%
One standard deviation increase in $De{m}_{c,y}$	(0.40)	(−0.09)	(1.10)
Decentralization	−0.31%
1 if country has a federal constitution	(−0.05)
One standard deviation increase in $De{c}_{c,y}$		0.12%	−1.07%
		(0.03)	(−0.23)
Capacity			3.94%
100 MW(electric) increase in power output			(3.73)
Observations	612	513	513
Adjusted $R^2$	0.074	0.063	0.269

*Dependent variable: $ln(\widehat{L{T}_i})$; transformed marginal effects on $\widehat{L{T}_i}$ in in percent and t-statistics in parentheses.

TABLE VIII Estimation Results of Eq. (5(5) $\begin{array}{rl}& ln(\mathrm{L}{\mathrm{T}}_i)={\beta }_{1}ln(\mathrm{G}\mathrm{D}\mathrm{P}p{c}_{c,y})+{\beta }_{2}De{m}_{c,y}+{\beta }_{3}De{c}_{c,y}\\ & +\sum _{x\in X}{\xi }_{x,i}+{\gamma }_{2}1\{\mathrm{I}\mathrm{O}{\mathrm{U}}_i\}+{\gamma }_{1}ln(\widehat{\mathrm{L}{\mathrm{T}}_i})\\ & +{\delta }_m+{\epsilon }_i.& (5)\end{array}$(5) )*

	(1)	(2)	(3)	(4)
TMI accident	17.7%	19.4%	20.1%	23.6%
Under construction on March 28, 1979	(3.20)	(2.31)	(4.13)	(3.10)
TMI accident $\times$ USA	37.0%	40.2%	31.4%	35.1%
Under construction on March 28, 1979 in the USA	(3.98)	(3.47)	(5.07)	(4.17)
Chernobyl disaster	2.8%	−2.5%	13.2%	6.0%
Under construction on April 26, 1986	(0.29)	(−0.22)	(1.92)	(0.85)
Chernobyl disaster $\times$ USSR	−31.6%	Not	−31.7%	Not
Under construction on April 26, 1986 in the USSR	(−2.92)	estimable	(−3.63)	estimable
Fukushima Daiichi disaster	−11.9%	−18.1%	9.9%	0.8%
Under construction on March 11, 2011	(−0.73)	(−0.86)	(1.49)	(0.10)
Regime change	31.8%	19.1%	50.3%	48.1%
Under construction during regime change	(2.39)	(1.04)	(3.13)	(2.10)
GDP per capita	−0.9%	4.5%	−9.2%	−11.4%
One standard deviation increase in $ln(GDPp{c}_{c,y})$	(−0.20)	(1.34)	(−2.38)	(−2.34)
Democracy	−4.1%	−6.9%	1.0%	0.4%
One standard deviation increase in $De{m}_{c,y}$	(−1.50)	(−1.64)	(0.41)	(0.12)
Decentralization	7.1%		22.6%
1 if country has a federal constitution	(1.08)		(5.00)
One standard deviation increase in $De{c}_{c,y}$		1.4%		9.8%
		(0.40)		(3.17)
Investor-owned utility	−10.4%	−10.5%	−16.0%	−14.9%
$IO{U}_i$	(−2.44)	(−2.44)	(−6.05)	(−3.41)
Expected LT, conditional on design	0.85%	0.86%	0.68%	0.71%
1% increase in $\widehat{L{T}_i}$	(5.32)	(4.94)	(8.17)	(7.30)
Reactor model fixed effects	✓	✓
Observations	556	476	590	500
Adjusted $R^2$	0.720	0.740	0.663	0.660

*Dependent variable: $ln(L{T}_i)$; transformed marginal effects on $L{T}_i$ in percent and t-statistics in parentheses.

Fig. 3. Divergent regional trends in NPP LT.

Fig. 4. Goodness of fit of Eq. (3).

TABLE IX Estimation Results of Eq. (6(6) $\begin{array}{rl}& ln(L{T}_i)=\beta ln(\widehat{L{T}_i})+{\gamma }_{1}ln(GDPp{c}_{c,y})\\ & +{\gamma }_{2}1\{IO{U}_i\}+\sum _{x\in X}{\xi }_{x,i}+{\delta }_f+{\mu }_c\\ & +{\nu }_y+{\epsilon }_i.& (6)\end{array}$(6) )*

	(1)	(2)	(3)	(4)
Expected LT, conditional on design	0.91%	0.88%	0.85%
1% increase in $\widehat{L{T}_i}$	(13.04)	(9.60)	(11.03)
Expected LT $\times$ Democracy		−0.01	−0.00
… $\times$ one standard deviation increase in $De{m}_{c,y}$		(1.00)	(−0.06)
Expected LT $\times$ Decentralization		0.03%
… $\times$ 1 if country has a federal constitution		(0.26)
… $\times$ one standard deviation increase in $De{c}_{c,y}$			0.01%
			(10.1)
Expected LT $\times$ East Asia				0.49%
1% increase in $\widehat{L{T}_i}$ in East Asia				(4.15)
Expected LT $\times$ Western Bloc				0.97%
1% increase in $\widehat{L{T}_i}$ in the Western Bloc				(11.13)
Expected LT $\times$ Eastern Bloc				1.06%
1% increase in $\widehat{L{T}_i}$ in the Eastern Bloc				(4.03)
Expected LT $\times$ Global South				1.70%
1% increase in $\widehat{L{T}_i}$ in the Global South				(3.90)
GDP per capita	−15.7%	−19.7%	−15.1%	−10.3%
One standard deviation increase in $ln(GDPp{c}_{c,y})$	(−0.95)	(−1.14)	(−0.92)	(−0.63)
Investor-owned utility	−6.5%	−6.5%	−4.3%	−6.3%
$IO{U}_i$	(−1.14)	(−1.15)	(−0.71)	(−1.13)
Reactor family fixed effects	✓	✓	✓	✓
Country fixed effects	✓	✓	✓	✓
Year fixed effects	✓	✓	✓	✓
Nuclear accidents and regime change	✓	✓	✓	✓
Observations	571	571	483	571
Adjusted $R^2$, within effects	0.344	0.348	0.311	0.362

*Dependent variable: $ln(L{T}_i)$; transformed marginal effects on $L{T}_i$ in percent and t-statistics in parentheses.

TABLE X Learning Parameters Estimated per Eqs. (7)(7) $\begin{array}{rl}& ln(\mathrm{L}{\mathrm{T}}_i)=\beta sin{h}^{-1}(Ex{p}_{i,f})+{\theta }_{1}M{W}_i+{\theta }_{2}1\{OT{C}_i\}\\ & +{\theta }_{3}1\{\mathrm{P}{\mathrm{u}}_i\}+\sum _{x\in X}{\xi }_{x,i}+{\gamma }_{1}ln(\mathrm{G}\mathrm{D}\mathrm{P}p{c}_{c,y})\\ & +{\gamma }_{2}1\{IO{U}_i\}+{\gamma }_3{M}_i+{\delta }_f+{\mu }_c+{\epsilon }_i.& (7)\end{array}$(7) and (8(8) $\begin{array}{rl}& ln(L{T}_i)=\beta sin{h}^{-1}(Ex{p}_{i,f})+{\theta }_1\mathrm{M}{\mathrm{W}}_i+{\theta }_{2}1\{\mathrm{O}\mathrm{T}{\mathrm{C}}_i\}\\ & +{\theta }_{3}1\{P{u}_i\}+\sum _{x\in X}{\xi }_{x,i}+{\gamma }_{1}ln(\mathrm{G}\mathrm{D}\mathrm{P}p{c}_{c,y})\\ & +{\gamma }_{2}1\{\mathrm{I}\mathrm{O}{\mathrm{U}}_i\}+{\gamma }_3{M}_i+{\mu }_c+{\nu }_y+{\epsilon }_i.& (8)\end{array}$(8) )*

	(1)	(2)	(3)	(4)
Cumulative experience	0.006	−0.018	−0.073	−0.110
$sin{h}^{-1}(Ex{p}_{i,f})$	(0.19)	(−0.58)	(−3.37)	(−5.80)
Cumulative Experience $\times$ Democracy	0.015	−0.000	0.029	0.009
… $\times$ one standard deviation increase in $De{m}_{c,y}$	(1.77)	(−0.05)	(2.98)	(0.76)
Cumulative Experience $\times$ Decentralization	−0.003		−0.048
… $\times$ 1 if country has a federal constitution	(−0.08)		(−1.75)
… $\times$ one standard deviation increase in $De{c}_{c,y}$		0.014		0.019
		(1.38)		(1.74)
Reactor family fixed effects	✓	✓
Year fixed effects			✓	✓
Country fixed effects	✓	✓	✓	✓
Additional controls per Eqs. (7)(7) $\begin{array}{rl}& ln(\mathrm{L}{\mathrm{T}}_i)=\beta sin{h}^{-1}(Ex{p}_{i,f})+{\theta }_{1}M{W}_i+{\theta }_{2}1\{OT{C}_i\}\\ & +{\theta }_{3}1\{\mathrm{P}{\mathrm{u}}_i\}+\sum _{x\in X}{\xi }_{x,i}+{\gamma }_{1}ln(\mathrm{G}\mathrm{D}\mathrm{P}p{c}_{c,y})\\ & +{\gamma }_{2}1\{IO{U}_i\}+{\gamma }_3{M}_i+{\delta }_f+{\mu }_c+{\epsilon }_i.& (7)\end{array}$(7) and (8(8) $\begin{array}{rl}& ln(L{T}_i)=\beta sin{h}^{-1}(Ex{p}_{i,f})+{\theta }_1\mathrm{M}{\mathrm{W}}_i+{\theta }_{2}1\{\mathrm{O}\mathrm{T}{\mathrm{C}}_i\}\\ & +{\theta }_{3}1\{P{u}_i\}+\sum _{x\in X}{\xi }_{x,i}+{\gamma }_{1}ln(\mathrm{G}\mathrm{D}\mathrm{P}p{c}_{c,y})\\ & +{\gamma }_{2}1\{\mathrm{I}\mathrm{O}{\mathrm{U}}_i\}+{\gamma }_3{M}_i+{\mu }_c+{\nu }_y+{\epsilon }_i.& (8)\end{array}$(8) )	✓	✓	✓	✓
Observations	595	503	601	509

*Dependent variable: $ln(L{T}_i)$; untransformed regression coefficients shown with t-statistics in parentheses.

Fig. 5. Lead time for PHWRs in India.

TABLE A.I Status of All Reactors in the Database as of April 6, 2021

Status	Count
Planned	76
Planning suspended	55
Planning canceled	172
Under construction	51
Construction suspended	18
Construction canceled	77
Operational	447
Permanent shutdown	191
Total	1087

TABLE B.I Reactors for Which Construction Was Abandoned or Is Presently Suspended

Country	Count	Known or Likely Reasons
Austria	1	National referendum banning nuclear power
Brazil	1	Corruption scandal
Bulgaria	2	Fall of communist regime
Cuba	2	Termination of Soviet aid
Czechoslovakia	2	Fall of communist regime
East Germany	5	German re-unification
Iran	1	Suspended during Islamic Revolution, damaged during Iran-Iraq War
Italy	3	National referendum banning nuclear power
Japan	2	In limbo due to post-Fukushima regulatory environment
North Korea	1	Breakdown of diplomatic agreement
Philippines	1	National executive decision
Poland	2	Fall of communist regime
Romania	3	Fall of communist regime
Russia (post 1991)	1	Energy geopolitics
Spain	4	National legislative decision
Soviet Union	4	Short-term response to Chernobyl disaster (RBMK design or other safety issues)
	14	Fall of communist regime
	1	Suspended after Chernobyl disaster, later restarted; canceled after Fukushima-Daiichi disaster
Taiwan	2	National executive decision
United States	42	Cancellation by utility
West Germany	1	Permission to operate denied by state government
World	95

TABLE B.II Predictors of Construction Suspension and Completion

	(1)^a	(2)^b
GDP per capita	9.0%	−8.3%
One standard deviation increase in $ln(GDPp{c}_{c,y})$	(1.83)	(−1.54)
Democracy	−4.9%	4.8%
One standard deviation increase in $De{m}_{c,y}$	(−1.14)	(1.09)
Decentralization^c	4.2%	−3.6%
One standard deviation increase in $De{c}_{c,y}$	(1.11)	(−0.90)
Investor-owned utility	−7.5%	7.4%
$IO{U}_i$	(−1.74)	(1.66)
TMI accident	−1.2%	1.0%
Under construction on March 28, 1979	(−0.30)	(0.27)
TMI accident $\times$ USA	26.7%	−25.8%
Under construction on March 28, 1979 in the USA	(6.24)	(−6.27)
Chernobyl disaster	14.0%	−12.6%
Under construction on April 26, 1986	(2.14)	(−2.01)
Chernobyl disaster $\times$ USSR	9.4%	−2.3%
Under construction on April 26, 1986 in the USSR	(1.93)	(−0.43)
Fukushima Daiichi disaster	11.2%	−9.1%
Under construction on March 11, 2011	(1.39)	(−1.02)
Regime change	35.2%	−28.8%
Under construction during regime change	(4.80)	(−3.24)
Observations	775	732

^a1 if ever suspended, 0 otherwise.

^b1 if ever completed, 0 otherwise; reactors presently under construction are excluded from column (2).

^cAverage marginal effects on the probability of the outcome in percent; t-statistics in parentheses.

TABLE B.III Relevance of Instruments for Column (1) of Table VIII

	First Stage
	F-Statistic
TMI accident under construction on March 28, 1979	253
TMI accident $\times$ USAUnder construction on March 28, 1979, in the USA	4094
Chernobyl disasterUnder construction on April 26, 1986	65
Chernobyl disaster $\times$ USSRUnder construction on April 26, 1986 in the USSR	479
Fukushima Daiichi disasterUnder construction on March 11, 2011	4
Regime changeUnder construction during regime change	75
Observations	556

TABLE B.IV Abbreviations and Symbols Used in the Econometric Specifications

Abbreviation	Full Description
$L{T}_i$	Lead time of the reactor in months, net of any months of suspended construction
$\widehat{L{T}_i}$	Predicted value of $L{T}_i$, conditional on design characteristics (see Sec. IV.A)
$De{m}_{c,y}$	Index of democracy in country $c$ as of year $y$
$De{c}_{c,y}$	Index of decentralization in country $c$ as of year $y$
$GD{P}_{c,y}$	GDP per capita in country $c$ as of year $y$, in 2011 U.S. dollars
$Spe{c}_{s,i}$	Any of $S$ design characteristics and specification variables for reactor $i$
$M{W}_i$	Net electric capacity (original design rating) of reactor $i$
$OT{C}_i$	Takes on the value 1 if reactor $i$ uses OTC, and 0 otherwise
$P{u}_i$	Takes on the value 1 if reactor $i$ was built primarily for the cogeneration of plutonium for weapons, and 0 otherwise
$IO{U}_i$	Takes on the value 1 if reactor $i$ lead utility was investor owned, 0 if state owned, and 0.5 if of mixed ownership
$NumUti{l}_c$	Number of utilities appearing in the data set for country $c$
$M_i$	A control for measurement error related to multi-unit construction (see Sec. B.II in Appendix B)
${\delta }_t$	Fixed effect for reactor type $t$
${\delta }_f$	Fixed effect for reactor family $f$
${\delta }_m$	Fixed effect for reactor model $m$
${\mu }_c$	Fixed effect for country $c$ (as of the year reactor $i$ began construction)
${\nu }_y$	Fixed effect for year $y$ (year in which reactor $i$ began construction)
${\xi }_y$	Any of several indicator variables that takes on the value 1 if reactor $i$ was under construction during event $x$, and 0 otherwise (see Sec. B.IV of Appendix B)
${\epsilon }_i$	Error term

J. PORTUGAL-PEREIRA et al., “Better Late than Never, but Never Late Is Better: Risk Assessment of Nuclear Power Construction Projects,” Energy Policy, 120, 158 (2018); https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2018.05.041.

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