Mortality from the influenza pandemic of 1918–19 in Indonesia

Figures & data

Figure 1  Map of the residencies of Java in 1920

Source: Widjojo 1970, p. 66.

Table 1  Population growth models for Java (1880–1930) with estimates of population loss from the influenza pandemic of 1918–19

	Model specification
Estimates	Unrestricted	Restricted
Intercept (γ 00)	14.1404***	14.1405***
	0.0001	0.0001
Time trend (γ 10)	0.0176***	0.0175***
	0.0001	0.0001
Flu dummy (γ 20)	−0.1389***	−0.1406***
	0.0088	0.0063
Flu dummy * Time trend (γ 30)	−0.0006	–
	0.8885
Number of observations	120
Hausman test statistic	0.00	0.00
	1.00	1.00
Breusch Pagan test statistic	327.52***	327.51***
	0.0001	0.0001
Estimates of key demographic phenomena
Influenza population loss (millions)	4.267	4.370
Population change, 1918–19 (millions)	3.780	3.835
Annual population growth rate before pandemic (%)	1.76	1.75
Annual population growth rate after pandemic (%)	1.70	1.75
p-values for null hypothesis of 0 coefficient in italics.
***p<0.01.
Source: Five-yearly population counts 1880–1905 and the censuses of 1920 and 1930 per Widjojo (1970).

Figure 2  Population of Java, 1880–1930 (in millions)

Source: Estimates from Table 1, restricted model.

Table 2  Estimated population losses from the influenza pandemic of 1918–19 in the regions of Java

Residency^1	Population loss (%)	Region in Java
Madura	−23.71	East Java
Banten	−21.13	West Java
Kediri	−20.62	East Java
Surabaja	−17.54	East Java
Tjirebon	−16.62	West Java
Rembang	−14.90	Central Java
Pasuruan	−14.32	East Java
Kedu	−13.27	Central Java
Semarang	−13.18	Central Java
Pekalongan	−10.31	Central Java
Banjumas	−9.75	Central Java
Madiun	−7.31	East Java
Djakarta	−6.49	West Java
Priangan	−2.97	West Java
Besuki	−1.10	East Java
^1Names as in Widjojo (1970, p. 6, Table 1).
Source: Estimates from Table 1.

Widjojo , Nitisastro. 1970 . Population Trends in Indonesia , Ithaca , NY : Cornell University Press .

 Google Scholar