Fertility and union formation during crisis and societal consolidation in the Western Balkans

Figures & data

Table 1 Socio-economic and cultural indicators, six Western Balkan countries, Ukraine, and the Czech Republic, 1989–2011

	Gross domestic product per capita at current US$ (UN)				% women aged 20–39 with post-secondary education			Sex ratio at birth, as number of boys per 100 girls (time period)
Country	1989–90	2008	1990s trough, as % of 1989–90 value	1990 level caught up by (year)	1990	2010	% women aged 15–19 ever married (year)
Albania	888	4,081	51	1995	7	10	9.5 (2002)	110 (2000–08)
Macedonia	1,450	4,722	95	1993	–	12^a	9.4 (1994)	108 (1995–2001)
Bosnia-Herzegovina	1,713	4,846	34	2002	–	13	17.1 (2004)	109 (1995–99)
Ukraine	1,823	4,087	36	2005	17	21	6.7 (2007)	Normal
Kosovo	2,443	2,394	26	2011	2^b	10^c	4.4 (2011)	109 (2002–09)
Montenegro	3,494	7,306	38	2005	12	17	4.3 (2003)	110 (2000–08)
Czech Republic	3,905	22,620	73	1993	9	19	0.4 (2007)	Normal
Serbia (excluding Kosovo)	4,739	6,702	18	2007	12	17	5.2 (2002)	108 (2000s)

^aWomen aged 20–44 in 2002 (United Nations 2017b).

^bWomen aged 15 or above (Radivojevic 1996).

^cWomen aged 20–39 in 2011 (SOK 2014).

Sources: United Nations (2013, 2017a, 2017b), Wittgenstein Centre for Demography and Global Human Capital (2015), and Guilmoto (2010).

Figure 1 Trends in the TFR according to different data sources and estimation methods, Western Balkans 1980–2010

Notes: OC = own children; RS = reverse survival; BH = birth history. The full vertical lines indicate the end of communist rule.

Sources: Human Fertility Collection (HFC); Vital Statistics (VS); Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey (MICS) waves III and IV; Demographic and Health Survey (DHS); Reproductive and Health Survey (RHS); Living Standards Measurement Study (LSMS); estimates based on 1990, 2000, and 2010 Census rounds.

Table 2 Data sources and methods used to estimate indicators of fertility (by birth order) and union formation, six Western Balkan countries, 1980–2011

Country	Year/period of data collection	Data source	Indicator	Method of estimation
Albania	1980–2010	Official statistics (HFC (MPIDR and VID 2017a) and Falkingham and Gjonca (2001))	TFR, MAM	Direct
	1989	Census counts (INSTAT et al. 2010)	TFR	Reverse survival
	2001	Census individual-level data (accessed at INSTAT)	TFR, TFR1–TFR4+	Own children
	2002	RHS: N (women) = 5,697; response rate = 94 per cent (Morris et al. 2005; Lerch 2013a)	TFR	Birth history
			Synthetic cohort rate first union	Retrospective information
	2005	MICS3: N (hh) = 5,418; response rate = 96 per cent	TFR	Own children
			Synthetic cohort rate first union	Retrospective information
	2008–09	DHS: N (women) = 7,584; response rate = 96 per cent (INSTAT et al. 2010; Lerch 2013a)	TFR	Birth history
			Synthetic cohort rate first union	Retrospective information
	2011	Census individual-level data (accessed at INSTAT)	TFR, TFR1–TFR4+	Own children
	2012	LSMS 2012: N (hh) = 6,671; response rate = n/a	TFR	Own children
Bosnia-Herzegovina	1980–2010	Official statistics (HFC (MPIDR and VID 2017a))	TFR, TFR1–TFR4+ up to 1990	Direct
	1991	Census counts (SOK and UNFPA 2005)	TFR	Reverse survival
	2001	LSMS: N (hh) = 5,402; response rate = 82 per cent	TFR	Own children
	2006	MICS3: N = 5,549; response rate = 93 per cent	TFR	Own children
			Synthetic cohort rate first union	Retrospective information
	2011–12	MICS4: N = 5,778; response rate = 91 per cent	TFR	Own children
			Synthetic cohort rate first union	Retrospective information
	2010	Official statistics and reverse-survived Census 2013 counts (author’s own estimates)	TFR, TFR1–TFR4+	Direct and indirect
	2013	Census counts (BHAS 2016)	TFR	Reverse survival
Kosovo	1980–96, 2003, 2010	Official statistics (Petrovic 1996; Bobic 2000; Blayo et al. 2004; author’s own estimates)	TMR, TFR, TFR1–TFR4+	Direct
	1991	Census estimate (Penev 2017)	TFR	Reverse survival
	2002	Census counts (Penev 2017)	TFR	Reverse survival
	1999/2000	DHS: N = 7,343; response rate = 99 per cent (Blayo et al. 2004)	TFR	Birth history
			First union	SMAM
	2003	DHS: N = 3,192; response rate = 99 per cent (SOK 2005)	TFR	Birth history, reverse survival
			Marriage	SMAM
	2009	DHS: N = 3,992; response rate = 99 per cent (SOK 2011)	TFR	Birth history
	2011	Census counts (SOK 2014)	TFR	Reverse survival
			First birth/	SMAB1
			union	SMAM
Macedonia	1980–2010	Official statistics (HFC)	TFR, TFR1–TFR4+	Direct
	1994	Census counts (UN DYB)	TFR	Reverse survival
	2002	Census counts (UN DYB)	TFR	Reverse survival
	2005–06	MICS3: N = 4,701; response rate = 89 per cent	TFR	Own children
			Synthetic cohort rate first union	Retrospective information
	2011	MICS4: N = 4,018; response rate = 91 per cent	TFR	Own children
			Synthetic cohort rate first union	Retrospective information
	2013	Estimates (MAKSTAT 2013)	TFR	Reverse survival
Montenegro	1980–2010	Official statistics (HFC)	TFR, TFR1–TFR4+	Direct
	1991	Census estimate (Penev 2017)	TFR	Reverse survival
	2003	Census counts (Penev 2017)	TFR	Reverse survival
	2005	MICS3: N = 2,358; response rate = 94 per cent	TFR	Own children
			Synthetic cohort rate first union	Retrospective information
	2011	Census counts (UNICEF 2012)	TFR	Reverse survival
Serbia (excluding Kosovo)	1980–2010	Official statistics (HFC)	TFR, TFR1–TFR4+	Direct
	1991	Census estimate (Penev 2017)	TFR	Reverse survival
	2002	Census counts (Penev 2017)	TFR	Reverse survival
	2005–06	MICS3: N = 8,730; response rate = 93 per cent	TFR	Own children
			Synthetic cohort rate first union	Retrospective information
	2007	LSMS: N (hh) = 5,557; response rate = 78 per cent	TFR	Own children
	2010	MICS4: N = 6,392; response rate = 94 per cent	TFR	Own children
			Synthetic cohort rate first union	Retrospective information
	2011	Census estimates (RSSO 2013)	TFR	Reverse survival

Notes: hh = household; TFR = total fertility rate; TFR1–TFR4+ = first to fourth+ birth components of the TFR; MAM = mean age at marriage; SMAM = singulate mean age at marriage; SMAB1 = singulate mean age at first birth; TMR = total marriage rate.

Sources: HFC = Human Fertility Collection; MICS3/4 = Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey wave III/IV; LSMS = Living Standards Measurement Study; RHS = Reproductive and Health Survey; DHS = Demographic and Health Survey; UN DYB = United Nations Demographic Yearbooks. Other sources cited can be found in references.

Figure 3 Relative age-specific rates for first births, Western Balkans, selected years around 1990, 2000, and 2005/10

Note: The closest available estimates around 1990, 2000, and 2005/10 are shown. Rates are scaled to unity to facilitate comparison of the age schedules’ shapes over time.

Sources: Human Fertility Collection (HFC), Human fertility database (HFD), author’s estimates (census-based and from vital statistics; see Table 2).

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