Using future age profiles to improve immigration projections

Figures & data

Figure 1 Immigration to Norway from three origin country groups, 1975–2017

Source: Statistics Norway.

Figure 2 Age profiles of immigrants arriving in Norway by origin country group, 1990–2017

Notes: Thick lines show averages; thin grey lines show single arrival years.Source: Statistics Norway and authors’ calculations.

Figure 3 Classification of immigrants’ arrival ages in Norway and average age profiles for immigrants arriving 1990–2017, by origin country group

Source: As for Figure 2.

Figure 4 Share of population in different age groups, estimated and projected by the WPP 2019 medium variant, by country group, 1975–2100

Source: World Population Projections and authors’ calculations.

Table 1 Projection methods for emigration rates used in this study

Weighted and unweighted means of registered emigration rates
M1	Ten years unweighted mean (2008–17)
M2	Five years unweighted mean (2013–17)
M3	Weighted mean using the years 2008–17; most recent year has most weight
Vector autoregressive (VAR) and autoregressive (AR) models
M4	VAR(1) models for three emigration rates by age group. AR(1) model in the aggregate approach
M5	VAR(2) models for three emigration rates by age group. AR(2) model in the aggregate approach
M6	AR(1) models for the emigration rates in both the aggregated and age-disaggregated approach
M7	AR(2) models for the emigration rates in both the aggregated and age-disaggregated approach

Figure 5 Immigration to Norway from three origin country groups, registered 1990–2017 and projected 2018–2100 by seven different methods, aggregated and disaggregated by age

Notes: The line shadings indicate the seven different methods used. Projections using disaggregated age groups in origin regions are shown by dotted/dashed lines and those with no age disaggregation are shown by solid lines. Source: As for Figure 2.

Figure 6 Difference in annual immigration to Norway, 2018–2100, if projection method disaggregates by age (for sum of the three origin country groups)

Source: Authors’ calculations.

Figure 7 Differences in projected population size in Norway, 2018–2100, caused by introducing age disaggregation into immigration projections

Source: As for Figure 6.