Fertility decline in sub-Saharan Africa: Does remarriage matter?

Figures & data

Table 1  Percentage of ever-remarried women among ever-married women aged 40–49 in 34 sub-Saharan African countries

Country	Years betweensurveys	Percentage remarried		Change in percentageremarried	Annual change inpercentage remarried
		Earliestsurvey	Most recentsurvey
Angola	–	–	23.9	–	–
Benin	21.5	37.4	20.8	−16.7	−0.78
Burkina Faso	17.6	23.9	16.9	−6.9	−0.39
Burundi	29.6	23.0	17.4	−5.6	−0.19
Cameroon	27.2	32.6	15.6	−17.0	−0.62
Chad	17.8	30.0	18.1	−11.9	−0.67
Comoros	16.5	50.6	36.9	−13.7	−0.83
Congo	6.2	33.1	39.3	6.2	0.99
Congo (DRC)	6.5	29.6	30.7	1.1	0.17
Cote d’Ivoire	17.4	30.1	25.5	−4.6	−0.26
Ethiopia	16.0	45.7	30.8	−14.9	−0.94
Gabon	11.4	38.9	37.9	−1.0	−0.09
Gambia	–	–	24.7	–	–
Ghana	26.5	51.6	33.9	−17.7	−0.67
Guinea	18.9	28.5	13.4	−15.0	−0.80
Kenya	25.4	11.3	9.2	−2.1	−0.08
Lesotho	9.9	3.2	3.7	0.5	0.05
Liberia	27.0	48.1	41.5	−6.6	−0.24
Madagascar	16.5	40.0	34.4	−5.6	−0.34
Malawi	23.2	48.1	34.2	−13.9	−0.60
Mali	22.6	23.8	12.6	−11.1	−0.49
Mozambique	14.3	37.2	28.4	−8.8	−0.62
Namibia	20.9	24.4	14.9	−9.5	−0.46
Niger	20.0	42.0	25.6	−16.4	−0.82
Nigeria	28.3	21.1	14.8	−6.3	−0.22
Rwanda	22.5	24.8	20.3	−4.5	−0.20
Senegal	33.2	38.9	25.2	−13.8	−0.42
Sierra Leone	11.1	38.4	29.4	−9.0	−0.81
South Africa	18.4	12.4	6.6	−5.8	−0.32
Tanzania	23.9	32.9	26.9	−6.0	−0.25
Togo	25.4	38.2	26.8	−11.4	−0.45
Uganda	27.8	32.3	26.3	−6.0	−0.22
Zambia	26.6	39.4	29.0	−10.4	−0.39
Zimbabwe	26.9	19.7	21.9	2.2	0.08

Source: DHS data from 34 countries, 1986–2019.

Figure 1 Observed mean number of children ever born by age 40 among women aged 40–49, by remarriage status, in 34 sub-Saharan African countries.

Note: Net fertility differences (mean CEB for women in intact first unions minus mean CEB for ever-remarried women) are presented with 95 per cent confidence intervals. A negative difference indicates that cumulative fertility is higher among remarried women.

Source: Most recent DHS data available for each country.

Figure 2 Observed and adjusted net fertility differences among women aged 40–49, by remarriage status and age, in 34 sub-Saharan African countries: (a) countries where observed net fertility difference falls above zero at most ages; and (b) remaining countries.

Note: Net fertility difference = mean CEB for women in intact first unions minus mean CEB for ever-remarried women. A negative net fertility difference indicates that cumulative fertility is higher among remarried women at that age.

Source: As for Figure 1.

Figure 2 Continued

Table 2  Differentials in adjusted fertility increments (mean CEB) between women in intact first unions and ever-remarried women aged 40–49, over three broad reproductive age ranges, in 34 sub-Saharan African countries

Country	Differences in fertility increment over broad reproductive age ranges
	Up to age 20	Between ages 20 and 35	Between ages 35 and 40
Angola	−0.027	0.455**	0.082
Benin	0.050	0.209*	0.101*
Burkina Faso	0.075*	0.373***	0.150**
Burundi	−0.022	1.025***	0.273***
Cameroon	0.023	0.313*	−0.005
Chad	0.018	0.731***	0.320***
Comoros	0.111	0.657***	0.093
Congo	0.044	0.480**	−0.007
Congo (DRC)	0.019	0.713***	0.169**
Cote d’Ivoire	0.019	0.339*	0.114
Ethiopia	0.109*	0.654***	0.327***
Gabon	−0.098	0.502**	0.161*
Gambia	−0.096	0.354*	0.106
Ghana	−0.013	0.387***	0.096
Guinea	−0.035	0.058	0.034
Kenya	0.087*	0.437***	0.088
Lesotho	−0.040	0.689*	−0.028
Liberia	−0.019	0.450***	0.096
Madagascar	0.051	0.706***	0.104*
Malawi	0.053*	0.474***	0.102**
Mali	0.062	0.480**	0.147
Mozambique	0.055	0.455***	0.143*
Namibia	0.049	0.137	0.019
Niger	0.019	0.482***	0.296***
Nigeria	−0.002	0.239***	−0.057
Rwanda	0.027	0.943***	0.132**
Senegal	0.058	0.645***	0.097
Sierra Leone	−0.044	−0.212*	0.022
South Africa	−0.106*	0.149	−0.049
Tanzania	0.020	1.015***	0.151**
Togo	0.049	0.382***	0.114*
Uganda	−0.019	0.667***	0.207***
Zambia	0.058	0.671***	0.068
Zimbabwe	0.137*	0.365***	0.086

*p < 0.05, ** p < 0.01, *** p < 0.001.

Notes: Fertility is measured here as children ever born. Differences in fertility increment are calculated by subtracting the fertility increment for a defined age range attained by remarried women from the corresponding fertility increment achieved by women in intact first unions. A negative difference indicates that the fertility increment is higher among remarried women in that age range. Differences in fertility increments are adjusted for age, age at first marriage, age at first birth, premarital fertility, education, and area of residence.

Source: Most recent DHS data available for each country.

Figure 3 Adjusted net fertility differences at age 40 among women aged 40–49, based on mean children ever born and on mean surviving children, in 34 sub-Saharan African countries

¹Fertility of ever-married women excludes fertility of women who married once but experienced a union dissolution.

Notes: Net fertility difference = mean CEB or surviving children for women in intact first unions minus mean CEB or surviving children for ever-remarried women. A negative net fertility difference indicates that cumulative fertility is higher among remarried women.

Source: As for Figure 1.

Figure 4 Change in net fertility difference at age 40 between the earliest and most recent DHS surveys, women aged 40–49, in 32 sub-Saharan African countries.

¹Net fertility difference = mean CEB for women in intact first unions minus mean CEB for ever-remarried women, as shown by the calculation in parentheses. A negative net fertility difference indicates that cumulative fertility is higher among remarried women.

Source: Earliest and most recent DHS data available for each country, 1986–2019.

Table 3  Association between net fertility difference and mean children ever born (CEB) at age 40 among ever-married women¹ aged 40–49 (country-level fixed-effects models) in 32 sub-Saharan African countries

	Model 1	Model 2	Model 3	Model 4
Mean CEB at age 40	0.447***	0.076	0.232*	0.279**
Median age	–	0.030	0.029	0.013
Median age at first birth	–	−0.063	−0.035	0.004
Median age at first marriage	–	−0.067	−0.059	−0.12
Mean CEB before first marriage	–	−0.131	−0.228	−0.185
Women with secondary + education (percentage)	–	−1.425**	–	–
Women residing in urban area (percentage)	–	−0.562	−1.446*	–
Constant	−2.035***	1.731	0.223	0.602
rho	0.5493	0.6579	0.5877	0.5718
Number of surveys	135	135	135	135
Number of countries	32	32	32	32
F-test	59.71***	12.22***	12.13***	13.34***

*p < 0.05, **p < 0.01, ***p < 0.001.

¹ Ever-married women excludes women who married once but experienced a union dissolution.

Note: Net fertility difference = mean CEB for women in intact first unions minus mean CEB for ever-remarried women. Angola and Gambia are excluded from this table as only one DHS is available.

Source: DHS data, 1986–2019.