Contraceptive choice as risk reduction? The relevance of local violence for women’s uptake of sterilization in Colombia

Figures & data

Figure 1 Prevalence of conflict events across Colombia, 1989–2016

Note: Each dot is an event and a bigger size indicates more casualties in that event. Events in 2017 (n = 9) were excluded because they could not be linked to DHS data.

Source: Author’s analysis of UCDP-GED data.

Figure 2 Share of women aged 13–49 who are sterilized and number of conflict events in Colombia, 1991–2016

Note: The solid line shows the proportion of women sterilized (left-hand y-axis); the dashed line shows the number of conflict events (right-hand y-axis). Observation starts in 1991 to allow for a 24-month time lag in exposure to conflict.

Source: Author’s analysis of DHS and UCDP-GED data.

Table 1 Descriptive statistics of sample population: women aged 13–49 in Colombia

	Frequency	Percentage
Prevalence of sterilization
No	92,414	81.49
Yes	20,989	18.51
Total women	113,403	100.00
Incidence of sterilization (per woman-month)
No	11,627,924	99.82
Yes	20,989	0.18
Age
13–19	2,910,553	24.99
20–24	2,664,496	22.87
25–29	2,347,393	20.15
30–34	1,779,155	15.27
35–39	1,146,462	9.84
40–44	614,465	5.27
45–49	186,389	1.60
Urban
No	2,910,765	24.99
Yes	8,738,148	75.01
Parity
0	4,428,933	38.02
1	2,855,552	24.51
2	2,162,178	18.56
3	1,063,380	9.13
4	526,701	4.52
5+	612,169	5.26
Sex composition of children
No children	4,428,933	38.02
All boys	2,224,411	19.10
All girls	2,086,324	17.91
Mixed	2,909,245	24.97
Education
Primary or less	5,388,817	46.26
Secondary	4,617,478	39.64
Tertiary	1,642,618	14.10
In education
No	9,069,275	77.86
Yes	2,579,638	22.14
Total woman-months	11,648,913	100.00

Source: Author’s analysis of DHS (1991, 1995, 2000, 2005, 2011, and 2017) and UCDP-GED data for 1989–2016.

Table 2 Summary statistics of women’s exposure to conflict events

Time lag	Number of woman-months	Number of conflict events
		Mean	Standard deviation	Minimum	Maximum
Past three months	11,648,913	1.86	3.74	0	51
Past six months	11,648,913	3.70	7.01	0	84
Past twelve months	11,648,913	7.33	13.16	0	137
Past 24 months	11,648,913	14.60	24.53	0	223

Source: As for Table 1.

Table 3 Department fixed effects linear probability models of women’s uptake of sterilization in relation to armed conflict in Colombia

	Probability	t-value
Model 1
Conflict events in past three months	0.000012*	(2.11)
Age (ref. 20–24)
13–19	0.000734***	(10.31)
25–29	0.000048	(0.88)
30–34	−0.000113	(−1.45)
35–39	−0.001022***	(−9.26)
40–44	−0.002969***	(−16.53)
45–49	−0.004492***	(−22.05)
Year	0.000058***	(11.35)
Parity (ref. 2)
0	−0.003404***	(−14.61)
1	−0.003031***	(−14.66)
3	0.003870***	(11.50)
4	0.004028***	(11.94)
5+	0.004035***	(11.92)
Sex composition of children (ref. all boys)
All girls	−0.000002	(−0.05)
Mixed	0.000501***	(6.07)
Urban (ref. rural)	0.000761***	(10.22)
Education (ref. primary or less)
Secondary	0.001004***	(12.41)
Tertiary	0.001619***	(12.43)
In education (ref. not)	−0.000106*	(−2.45)
Constant	−0.114315***	(−11.16)
Rho	0.0003	–
R-square overall	0.0038	–
Model 2
Conflict events in past six months	0.000007**	(2.85)
Constant	−0.114218***	(−11.14)
Rho	0.0003	–
R-square overall	0.0038	–
Model 3
Conflict events in past twelve months	0.000004**	(2.75)
Constant	−0.114025***	(−11.13)
Rho	0.0003	–
R-square overall	0.0038	–
Model 4
Conflict events in past 24 months	0.000003**	(3.46)
Constant	−0.113371***	(−11.02)
Rho	0.0003	–
R-square overall	0.0038	–

*p < 0.05; ** < 0.01; ***p < 0.001.

Notes: ref. = reference category; n = 11,648,913 woman-months. Models 2–4 are adjusted by the same covariates as presented in Model 1. The key independent variable is number of conflict events and the four models vary according to the time frame used to measure the number of events.

Source: As for Table 1.

Figure 3 Predicted probabilities of becoming sterilized according to number of conflict events in the past three months, women aged 13–49 in Colombia, 1991–2016

Note: Observation starts in 1991 to allow for a 24-month time lag in exposure to conflict.

Source: As for Figure 2.

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