Linking internal and international migration over the life course: A sequence analysis of individual migration trajectories in Europe

Figures & data

Figure 1 Theoretical migration sequences by King and Skeldon (2010)

Source: King and Skeldon (2010).

Table 1 Lifetime migration from birth to age 50 in 20 European countries, descriptive statistics (percentages)

	No move	Internal movement (only)		International migration (only)	Internal and international movement	Total
		One transition	Several transitions	At least one transition
Eastern Europe	17.8	33.7	44.6	0.2	3.7	100
German-speaking Europe	7.4	15.0	72.4	0.2	5.0	100
Northern Europe	1.5	2.5	87.5	0.0	8.6	100
Southern Europe	6.4	30.2	59.5	0.5	3.5	100
Western Europe	2.1	4.6	86.6	0.3	6.3	100
Overall	7.6	20.6	66.8	0.3	4.7	100

Notes: Authors’ calculations using weighted data from the general sample (n  =  25,592). Countries included are Austria, Belgium, Bulgaria, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, Malta, Netherlands, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Spain, Sweden, and Switzerland.

Source: Data from SHARE (Waves 3 [2008–09] and 7 [2017]; weighted).

Figure 2 Graphical representations of individual migration trajectories from birth to age 50, among those who have ever moved internationally, in 20 European countries.

Notes: Figures are best viewed in colour online. The sequence index plot (panel A) displays horizontal stacked bars that depict all sequences in the sample. In panel B, the relative frequency sequence plot (left-hand side) displays sequence medoids that depict 100 representative sequences, and the distance-to-medoid box plots (right-hand side) visualize the distance of all sequences in a frequency group to their respective medoid. The R² and F-statistic are overall indicators of how well the selected medoids represent a given set of sequences. Sequences are residential states over successive years from age 0 to age 50. Statistics are based on the migrant sample (N = 1,600).

Source: Data from SHARE (Waves 3 [2008–09] and 7 [2017]; weighted).

Figure 3 Migration trajectories, among those who have ever moved internationally, in 20 European countries

Notes: Figures are best viewed in colour online. Relative frequency sequence plots display sequence medoids (left-hand panel) that depict representative sequences for each 3–4 sequences, and distance-to-medoid box plots (right-hand panel) visualize the distance of all sequences in a frequency group to their respective medoid. The R² and F-statistic are overall indicators of how well the selected medoids represent a given set of sequences. Sequences are residential states over successive years from age 0 to age 50. Statistics are based on the migrant sample (N = 1,600).

Source: As for Figure 2.

Table 2 Characteristics of each migration trajectory type from birth to age 50 in 20 European countries

	Migration trajectory patterns from cluster analysis in Figure 3
	1. International migration only	2. Internal movement after emigration	3. Internal movement before and after emigration	4. Internal movement after return	5. Short stay abroad preceded by internal migration	6. Internal movement during stay abroad	7. Circular international migration	Overall
N respondents	122	298	301	206	452	96	125	1,600
Percentage of respondents (unweighted)	7.6	18.6	18.8	12.9	28.3	6.0	7.8	100.0
Percentage of respondents (weighted)	7.0	19.5	15.1	15.2	29.1	5.0	9.1	100.0
Frequency: Average number of transitions (count)
Internal mobility	0.3	3.3	4.3	2.8	5.3	5.8	5.3	4.1
International migration	1.7	1.3	1.2	2.5	2.2	2.1	4.5	2.0
All moves	2.0	4.6	5.5	5.3	7.5	7.9	9.8	6.1
Timing: Median age at first move (years)
Internal mobility	31	22	16	21	12	14	10	17
International migration	22	13	29	18	24	20	21	21
Duration: Average duration (years)
Stays abroad	18.5	34.4	20.3	8.3	4.0	11.3	11.8	15.4

Notes: Authors’ calculations using weighted data from the migrant sample (N  =  1,600). Migrant sample comprises respondents who have experienced at least one international migration from birth to age 50 (see section on the Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe).

Source: As for Table 1.

Table 3 Predictors of migration trajectory patterns from birth to age 50 in 20 European countries

	Migration trajectory patterns from cluster analysis in Figure 3
	1. International migration only	2. Internal movement after emigration	3. Internal movement before and after emigration	4. Internal movement after return	5. Short stay abroad preceded by internal migration	6. Internal movement during stay abroad	7. Circular international migration
Individual-level variables
Birth year	−0.002	0.004	0.007*	−0.001	−0.001	−0.004*	−0.004
	(0.002)	(0.005)	(0.003)	(0.004)	(0.006)	(0.002)	(0.004)
Female	0.012	−0.038	0.030+	0.004	−0.020	0.040*	−0.034
	(0.021)	(0.026)	(0.016)	(0.015)	(0.020)	(0.016)	(0.040)
Upper secondary education	−0.117**	0.028	0.012	−0.026	0.135+	−0.007	−0.066
	(0.043)	(0.053)	(0.033)	(0.066)	(0.072)	(0.012)	(0.054)
University degree	−0.119*	−0.042	0.036	−0.108+	0.183***	0.017	−0.010
	(0.050)	(0.038)	(0.040)	(0.056)	(0.048)	(0.018)	(0.050)
Rural origin	−0.049	−0.073	0.016	0.111+	0.008	0.007	0.006
	(0.030)	(0.050)	(0.029)	(0.058)	(0.035)	(0.010)	(0.021)
Country-level variables
Year first benefited from free movement within the EU	0.000	−0.001	0.003	−0.003**	−0.001	−0.001*	−0.002**
	(0.000)	(0.002)	(0.002)	(0.001)	(0.003)	(0.000)	(0.001)
Gross Domestic Product (log) (average 1970–2017)	−0.023	−0.133**	−0.110**	0.072*	0.229***	0.019	0.138***
	(0.021)	(0.042)	(0.037)	(0.035)	(0.066)	(0.017)	(0.023)

+p < 0.1, *p < 0.05, **p < 0.01, ***p < 0.001.

Notes: Results are from logistic regressions for each migration cluster shown in Figure 3 and are presented as average marginal effects (B). Standard errors (SE) in parentheses are cluster robust, accounting for observations nested in countries. Reference categories of model covariates are males, less than upper secondary education, and urban origin. Authors’ calculations use weighted data from the migrant sample (N  =  1,600).

Source: As for Table 1.

Table 4 Percentage distribution of migration pathways by European region

	1. International migration only	2. Internal movement after emigration	3. Internal movement before and after emigration	4. Internal movement after return	5. Short stay abroad preceded by internal migration	6. Internal movement during stay abroad	7. Circular international migration	Total
Eastern Europe (N = 133)	12.8	25.6	46.6	2.2	11.3	0.8	0.8	100.0
German-speaking Europe (N = 336)	4.8	18.8	22.4	10.4	30.7	2.7	10.4	100.0
Northern Europe (N = 310)	1.3	4.9	9.7	9.4	53.4	8.7	13.2	100.0
Southern Europe (N = 387)	14.2	32.6	13.7	17.6	12.9	6.0	3.1	100.0
Western Europe (N = 434)	6.9	13.8	18.7	16.4	27.7	8.3	8.3	100.0
Overall (N = 1,600)	7.6	18.6	18.8	12.9	28.3	6.0	7.8	100.0

Notes: Authors’ calculations use weighted data from the migrant sample (N  =  1,600). Percentages are unweighted.

Source: As for Table 1.

Table A1 NUTS 2 regions in SHARE countries: numbers, population density, land size, and migration within and between NUTS 2 regions

	Number of NUTS 2 regions	Average population density per NUTS 2 region (persons/ km^2)	Average land size per NUTS 2 region (km^2)	Average ratio of intra-NUTS 2 migration and inter-NUTS 2 migration
Eastern Europe
Bulgaria	6	64	18,395	6.5
Hungary	8	515	13,287	5.1
Poland	17	147	19,542	4.2
Romania	8	229	29,799	5.0
German-speaking Europe
Austria	9	608	9,320	4.8
Germany	19	465	9,404	4.8
Switzerland	7	330	5,899	3.2
Northern Europe
Denmark	5	229	8,585	4.5
Sweden	8	77	54,821	4.6
Southern Europe
Greece	13	128	10,158	3.3
Italy	21	181	14,384	6.8
Portugal	7	256	13,175	5.0
Spain	19	693	26,629	5.1
Western Europe
Netherlands	12	509	3,462	6.7

Notes: Results are not reported for Belgium, France, and Ireland, because NUTS 1 regions are used in those countries, or for Finland, Luxembourg, and Malta, for which only all changes of address are recorded. Note that for Denmark, overseas territories of Greenland and Faroe Islands are considered as an additional region. For Finland, information on regions is not available. For Hungary information is combined in seven regions. For Ireland information is based on NUTS 2 classification of 2013 (two regions). For Italy, the regions of Trentino and South Tyrol are combined. For the Netherlands, information is only available for five combined regions. For Spain, the autonomous cities of Ceuta and Melilla are combined.

Source: Average population density and land size were measured for 2017 and were calculated using information from the World Bank (retrieved from https://data.worldbank.org/indicator). The ratio of intra-regional and inter-regional migrations averaged at the population level was calculated for moves between ages 0 and 50 reported by respondents born between 1950 and 1965 from the SHARE survey for each country (Waves 3 [2008–09] and 7 [2017]; weighted).

Figure A1 Cut-off criteria for cluster solutions (normalized scores)

Notes: Figures are best viewed in colour online. ASW = Average silhouette width; HGSD = Hubert’s Gamma Somers’ D; PBC = Point-biserial correlation. For ease of comparisons across indicators, their scores have been normalized.

Source: Data from SHARE (Waves 3 [2008–09] and 7 [2017]; weighted).

King, Russell and Ronald Skeldon. 2010. ‘Mind the gap!’ Integrating approaches to internal and international migration, Journal of Ethnic and Migration Studies 36(10): 1619–1646. https://doi.org/10.1080/1369183X.2010.489380

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