Sea Level Rise, Homeownership, and Residential Real Estate Markets in South Florida

Figures & data

Table 1 Selected county-wide characteristics of Miami–Dade and Pinellas

	Pinellas County	Miami–Dade County
Est. average elevation/range of elevation	30 ft/0–110 ft (≈ 9 m/0–34 m)	6 ft/0–34 ft (≈ 2 m/0–10 m)
Coastline length	588 miles	84 miles
	(≈ 946 km)	(≈ 135 km)
Total population, 2018	975,280	2,761,581
Percentage foreign born population, 2018	12%	53%
Percentage households where other language than English is spoken at home, 2018	14%	74%
Percentage population over age 65, 2018	25%	16%
Average house price 2004–2019	$297,800	$478,300
Percentage PHOs county-wide, 2004–2019	66.4%	64.6%
Percentage NPHOs county-wide, 2004–2019	33.6%	35.4%
Percentage mobile homes of all housing units (2010)	10.4%	1.8%

Notes: Prices are adjusted to 2019 US dollars. PHO = primary homeowner; NPHO = nonprimary homeowner.

Sources: Topography (Miami Dade n.d.-a; Pinellas County n.d); population (U.S. Census Bureau n.d.); prices (Miami Dade n.d.-b; Pinellas County Property Appraiser n.d.); mobile homes (Desrosiers-Lauzon 2011).

Table 2 Basic characteristics of home sales in the two case study samples (i.e., single-family homes within 5,000 ft [1,524 m] coastal bands of Miami–Dade and Pinellas counties) 2004–2019

	Pinellas County	Miami–Dade County
Number of home sales (N)	77,454	58,264
Percentage PHOs	66.3%	60.4%
Percentage NPHOs	34.7%	39.6%
Average house price	$322,200	$613,800
Average house price for PHOs	$333,300	$568,200
Average house price for NPHOs	$300,300	$683,100

Notes: Prices are adjusted to 2019 US dollars. PHO = primary homeowner; NPHO = nonprimary homeowner.

Source: County Appraiser’s Offices.

Table 3 Summary statistics for regression variables for Pinellas County and Miami–Dade County

	Pinellas County (N = 77,454)		Miami–Dade County (N = 58,264)
	Mean	Std. dev.	Mean	Std. dev.
Housing price (×10^3 US$, unadjusted)	292	264	555	849
Number of bedrooms	1.93	1.12	3.26	0.96
Lot size (×10^3 sq. ft^+)	2.47	1.26	9.29	19.49
Living area (×10^3 sq. ft^+)	1.76	0.85	2.04	1.20
Year property built (as compared to year 2019)	42.67	19.92	46	40
Distance to coast (×10^3 ft^++)	1.91	1.43	2.09	1.45
Distance to major road (×10^3 ft^++)	1.99	2.06	0.94	0.80
FEMA floodplain	0.33	0.47	0.48	0.50
SLR exposure (6 ft or 1.8 m)	0.21	0.40	0.32	0.47

Notes:

⁺ 1 sq. ft = 0.0929 sq. m;

⁺⁺ 1 ft = 0.3048 m. FEMA = Federal Emergency Management Agency; SLR = sea level rise.

Table 4 Spatial hedonic regression results for Pinellas County and Miami–Dade County

Variables	Pinellas County		Miami–Dade County
	Coefficient	Std. error	Coefficient	Std. error
Intercept	2.50***	0.02	2.70***	0.03
Number of bedrooms	0.03***	7.2 × 10^–4	0.04***	0.002
Lot size, sq. ft^+	0.07***	0.003	0.001***	8.4 × 10^–5
Living area, sq. ft^+	0.18***	0.004	0.23***	0.002
Year property built	−1.20 × 10^–4.	6.8 × 10^–5	−1.40 × 10^–4***	4.2 × 10^–5
Euclidean distance to coastline, ft^++	−0.01***	9.4 × 10^–4	−0.03***	0.001
Euclidean distance to major road, ft^++	0.01***	6.0 × 10^–4	0.01***	0.002
FEMA 100-year floodplain	0.05***	0.004	−0.03***	0.004
SLR exposure less than 2 ft^+++	−0.12***	0.02	0.02	0.03
SLR exposure 2 to 3 ft^+++	−0.02*	0.01	−0.07***	0.01
SLR exposure 3 to 4 ft^+++	0.03***	0.01	−0.03***	0.01
SLR exposure 4 to 5 ft^+++	0.06***	0.01	−0.01	0.01
SLR exposure 5 to 6 ft^+++	0.04***	0.01	−0.01*	0.005
ρ	0.45***	0.003	0.47	0.004
R^2	0.79		0.81
Log-likelihood	−14,156.1		−25,291.4
Moran’s I	308.68 (p < 0.001)		228.15 (p < 0.001)
Sample size	77,454		58,264

*** p < 0.001;

** p < 0.01;

* p < 0.05;

. p < 0.1.

Notes: Year and city/town dummies were included in the model but omitted here for simplicity;

⁺ 1 sq. ft = 0.0929 sq. m;

⁺⁺ 1 ft = 0.3048 m;

⁺⁺⁺ 2 ft ≈ 0.6 m, 3 ft ≈ 0.9 m, 4 ft ≈ 1.2 m, 5 ft ≈ 1.5 m, 6 ft ≈ 1.8 m.

FEMA = Federal Emergency Management Agency; SLR = sea level rise.

Table 5 Spatial hedonic regression results for PHOs and NPHOs in Pinellas County and Miami–Dade County

Variables	Pinellas County		Miami–Dade County
	Coefficient	Std. error	Coefficient	Std. error
Intercept	2.50***	0.02	2.70***	0.03
Number of bedrooms	0.03***	0.001	0.04***	0.002
Lot size, sq. ft^+	0.07***	0.003	0.001***	8.4 × 10^–5
Living area, sq. ft^+	0.18***	0.004	0.23***	0.002
Year property built	−1.2 × 10^–4.	6.8 × 10^–5	1.4 × 10^–4***	4.2 × 10^–5
Euclidean distance to coastline, ft^++	−0.01***	0.001	−0.03***	0.001
Euclidean distance to major road, ft^++	0.01***	0.001	0.01***	0.002
FEMA 100-year floodplain	0.05***	0.004	−0.03***	0.004
SLR exposure less than 2 ft & PHOs^+++	−0.10***	0.03	−0.15***	0.05
SLR exposure less than 2 ft & NPHOs^+++	−0.13***	0.03	0.14***	0.04
SLR exposure 2 to 3 ft & PHOs^+++	−0.01	0.01	−0.09***	0.02
SLR exposure 2 to 3 ft & NPHOs^+++	−0.03***	0.01	−0.05***	0.02
SLR exposure 3 to 4 ft & PHOs^+++	0.05***	0.01	−0.06***	0.01
SLR exposure 3 to 4 ft & NPHOs^+++	−0.01	0.01	0.003	0.01
SLR exposure 4 to 5 ft & PHOs^+++	0.08***	0.01	−0.002	0.01
SLR exposure 4 to 5 ft & NPHOs^+++	0.002	0.01	−0.01	0.01
SLR exposure 5 to 6 ft & PHOs^+++	0.05***	0.01	−0.003	0.01
SLR exposure 5 to 6 ft & NPHOs^+++	0.01.	0.01	−0.02***	0.01
ρ	0.45***	0.003	0.47***	0.004
R^2	0.79		0.81
Log-likelihood	−14,083.7		−25,265.1
Moran’s I	308.55 (p < 0.001)		228.05 (p < 0.001)
Sample size	77,454		58,264

*** p < 0.001;

** p < 0.01;

* p < 0.05;

. p < 0.1.

Notes: Year and city/town dummies were included in the model but omitted here for simplicity;

⁺ 1 sq. ft = 0.0929 sq. m;

⁺⁺ 1 ft = 0.3048 m;

⁺⁺⁺ 2 ft ≈ 0.6 m, 3 ft ≈ 0.9 m, 4 ft ≈ 1.2 m, 5 ft ≈ 1.5 m, 6 ft ≈ 1.8 m.

PHO = primary homeowner; NPHO = nonprimary homeowner; FEMA = Federal Emergency Management Agency; SLR = sea level rise.

Miami Dade. n.d.-a. Flood zone maps. Accessed October 7, 2020. https://www.miamidade.gov/environment/flood-maps.asp

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Pinellas County. n.d. Flood maps & zones. Accessed October 7, 2020. http://pinellascounty.org/flooding/maps.htm

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U.S. Census Bureau. n.d. Explore Census data. Accessed October 7, 2020. https://data.census.gov/cedsci/

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Miami Dade. n.d.-b. Miami-Dade property appraiser. Accessed October 7, 2020. http://www.miamidade.gov/pa/

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Pinellas County Property Appraiser. n.d. Accessed October 7, 2020. https://www.pcpao.org/

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Desrosiers-Lauzon, G. 2011. Florida’s snowbirds: Spectacle, mobility, and community since 1945. Montreal: McGill-Queen’s University Press.

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