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Abstract
Crocco M., Faria-Silva F., Paulo-Rezende L. and Rodríguez-Fuentes C. J. Banks and regional development: an empirical analysis on the determinants of credit availability in Brazilian regions, Regional Studies. This paper studies the influence that liquidity preference and bank lending strategies might have played in the determination of bank credit availability in Brazilian regions during the period 1999–2008. It puts forward the argument that in remoter and less developed regions, the liquidity preference of agents is higher and fluctuates along business cycles, reducing regional credit availability in downturns (due to both a contraction in supply and the demand for credit in remoter regions), and producing a more unstable pattern for credit availability alongside business cycles. Empirical evidence for the Brazilian regions during the period 1999–2008 is provided to support this view.
Crocco M., Faria-Silva F., Paulo-Rezende L. and Rodríguez-Fuentes C. J. 银行与区域发展：巴西区域信贷可及性决定因子的经验分析，区域研究。本文研究巴西区域自 1999 至 2008 年间，流动性偏好（liquidity preference）与银行借贷策略对于决定银行信贷可及性可能产生的影响。本研究进一步主张：在较为偏远且发展较低的区域，代理人的流动性偏好较高，且随着商业周期波动，在经济不景气时减低了区域信贷的可及性（同时由供给的紧缩以及偏远地区的信贷需求所导致），并且随着商业周期产生更为不稳定的信贷可及性模式。巴西 1999 年至 2008 年间的区域经验证据将提供用以支持该论点。
Crocco M., Faria-Silva F., Paulo-Rezende L. et Rodríguez-Fuentes C. J. Les banques et l'aménagement du territoire: une analyse empirique des déterminants de l'offre de crédit dans les régions brésiliennes, Regional Studies. Cet article cherche à examiner l'influence éventuelle de la préférence pour la liquidité et les opérations de prêt bancaires quant à la détermination de l'offre de crédit bancaire dans les régions brésiliennes entre 1999 et 2008. On avance l'argument selon lequel la préférence des agents pour la liquidité s'avère plus élevée et varie en fonction des cycles d'activité dans les régions plus isolées et moins développées, réduisant l'offre de crédit régionale au moment des ralentissements économiques (ce qui s'explique à la fois par une baisse de l'offre et de la demande de crédit dans les régions plus isolées), et déstabilisant l'offre de crédit en fonction des cycles d'activité. On fournit des preuves empiriques auprès des régions brésiliennes pour la période allant de 1999 à 2008 afin de justifier cet argument.
Crocco M., Faria-Silva F., Paulo-Rezende L. und Rodríguez-Fuentes C. J. Banken und Regionalentwicklung: eine empirische Analyse über die Determinanten für die Verfügbarkeit von Darlehen in brasilianischen Regionen, Regional Studies. In diesem Beitrag wird untersucht, welche Rolle Liquiditätspräferenzen und Bankkreditstrategien für die Entscheidungen über die Verfügbarkeit von Bankdarlehen in brasilianischen Regionen im Zeitraum von 1999 bis 2008 gespielt haben könnten. Wir argumentieren, dass die Liquiditätspräferenzen der Akteure in abgelegeneren und weniger entwickelten Regionen höher ausfallen und mit den Geschäftszyklen fluktuieren, wodurch sich die regionale Verfügbarkeit von Darlehen bei einem Abschwung (aufgrund eines verringerten Angebots und der Nachfrage nach Darlehen in abgelegeneren Regionen) verringert und ein instabileres Muster von Darlehensverfügbarkeit gemäß den Geschäftszyklen entsteht. Zur Unterstützung dieser These werden empirische Belege für die brasilianischen Regionen im Zeitraum von 1999 bis 2008 geliefert.
Crocco M., Faria-Silva F., Paulo-Rezende L. y Rodríguez-Fuentes C. J. Bancos y desarrollo regional: un análisis empírico sobre los factores que determinan la disponibilidad de créditos en regiones brasileñas, Regional Studies. En este artículo estudiamos qué influencia han tenido la preferencia de liquidez y las estrategias de los préstamos bancarios en la determinación de la disponibilidad de créditos bancarios en las regiones brasileñas durante el periodo entre 1999 y 2008. Presentamos el argumento de que en las regiones más remotas y menos desarrolladas, la preferencia de liquidez de los agentes es superior y fluctúa junto con los ciclos comerciales, reduciendo la disponibilidad regional de los créditos en época de recesión (debido a la contracción de la oferta y la demanda de créditos en regiones más remotas) y produciendo un modelo más inestable en la disponibilidad de los créditos junto con los ciclos comerciales. Para respaldar esta tesis mostramos pruebas empíricas para las regiones brasileñas durante el periodo entre 1999 y 2008.
Acknowledgements
The authors acknowledge the financial support provided by the National Council for Scientific and Technological Development (CNPq) and the Brazilian Federal Agency for Support and Evaluation of Postgraduate Education (CAPES).
Notes
1. Only when markets are segmented does this view consider the possibility for the banking system to interfere in the process (Roberts and Fishkind, Citation1979; Moore and Hill, Citation1982); otherwise, there will be equilibrating interregional financial flows which, in turn, would mean that money and credit are of no significance at the regional level (Borts, Citation1968; Moore and Nagurney, Citation1989).
2. The New Keynesian theory is applied to the regional level by Greenwald et al. (Citation1993) and Stiglitz and Greenwald (Citation2003, ch. XII).
3. According to Dow (Citation1998),
the term ‘knowledge’ refers more to processes than to facts; information on facts is thus a subset of knowledge. The knowledge-information distinction is thus parallel to the distinction between ‘knowing how’ and ‘knowing that’.
4. For the explanation of the New Keynesian and Post-Keynesian approaches to regional credit markets, as well as their differences, see Dow and Rodríguez-Fuentes (Citation1997, pp. 913–914 and 914–915, respectively).
5. Note the Post-Keynesian distinction between information and knowledge in the credit creation process, outlined by Dow (Citation1998) as follows:
This distinction [information versus knowledge] has profound implications for credit market analysis. First, the range of potential knowledge is not known in advance (or even in retrospect). The clearest statement of this is Shackle's (1972) argument that firms' investment projects are crucial experiments; there is in general no relevant frequency distribution on which to estimate risk. More generally, institutional evolution and human creativity mean that the future is not like the past in ways which cannot possibly be predicted. Keynes's (1973e) Treatise on Probability builds on the argument that the range of knowledge which can be captured by frequency distributions is small; most knowledge is subject to uncertainty in the sense of unquantifiable risk. Keynes classified knowledge as being direct (based on pure logic and/or direct experience) and indirect (based on theorizing, referring to direct knowledge as evidence.
6. For a fuller account of this approach, see Rodríguez-Fuentes (Citation2006, pp. 100–103).
7. The ‘state’ refers to the geographical unit that makes up each region in Brazil. Brazil has twenty-six states (plus the Federal District) divided into five geographical regions: (1) ‘North’ – seven states: Amazonas, Pará, Rondônia, Roraima, Amapá, Acre and Tocantins; (2) ‘Northeast’ – nine states: Alagoas, Sergipe, Bahia, Pernambuco, Rio Grande do Norte, Paraíba, Maranhão, Piauí and Ceará; (3) ‘Midwest’ – three states plus the Federal District: Mato Grosso, Mato Grosso do Sul and Goiás; (4) ‘Southeast’ – four states: Minas Gerais, São Paulo, Rio de Janeiro and Espírito Santo; and (5) ‘South’ – three states: Rio Grande do Sul, Paraná and Santa Catarina. For purposes of this paper, the names of the regions are not translated from the original Portuguese.
8. Some ‘peripheral’ states such as Amazonas and Mato Grosso (as shown in ) have a higher income per capita. This fact is due to the presence of areas with some degree of economic dynamism in these two states (such as the ‘Zona Franca de Manaus’ in Amazonas and primary-export (agriculture and pecuary) activities in Mato Grosso), and is also due to its large geographical and low population densities which, according to , do not accurately reflect the economic situation of less developed states.
9. Except for the Gini variable.
10. This method is appropriate when the independent variables used in regressions are endogenous and require some type of control for the simultaneity or reverse causality and endogeneity.
11. Since the variable liquidity preference of banks (LPB) is measured at the bank branch level, and in the remoter regions the portfolio allocation decision might be limited to more basic financial assets (such as loans or deposits), a rise in bank liquidity preference (during expansions) may drive banks to buy more liquid and less risky assets in national financial markets and therefore reduce the supply of credit regionally. In the reverse case, a reduction in liquidity preference (during recessions) contributes to higher instability in credit availability alongside business cycles.
12. The information on bonds and derivatives was extracted from account 1300 of the Information System of the Central Bank of Brazil (SISBACEN).
13. Some authors (Menezes et al., Citation2007) opt for exclusion from the Federal District due to this being the capital of Brazil and the headquarters of the major public banks. Some transactions are carried out (both asset and liability) that produce values which do not necessarily correspond to the behaviour of banks, but are due to the specific characteristics of the government.
14. The authors tried to add a default measure to the model in order to capture greater sensitivity on the demand side (the capacity of default of borrowers), as well as the provision for credit (once it interferes with the risk of banks, therefore, it affects their decision in offering more resources or even renegotiating debt). Since the data series from the Brazilian Central Bank was not available for all years considered, the default measure was not included in the estimates.
15. For example, Berger (Citation2003) argued that the expansion of technology would increase productivity and alter the structure of the financial system in terms of loan volume and variety of banking services, as well as reducing the costs (economies of scale).