The Covid-19 shock in European regions

Figures & data

Table 1. Definition of variables.

Variables	Definition
Dependent variables
sd_01-24	Standard deviation of mortality from weeks 1 to 24 whereby mortality is here calculated as a percentage change with respect to the average local mortality figures, 2015–19
sd_10-24	Standard deviation of mortality from weeks 10 to 24 whereby mortality is here calculated as a percentage change with respect to the average local mortality figures, 2015–19
sd_Excess Deaths	Standard deviation of the share of the population dying from Covid-19 up to week 47
Independent variables
OECD-TL3 (small regions)
GDP Per Capita	US$ per head, constant prices, constant purchasing power parity (PPP), base year 2015
Employment Herfindahl Index	Herfindahl index: employment: number of persons
GVA Herfindahl Index	Herfindahl index: gross value added (GVA) (millions US$, constant prices, constant PPP, base year 2015)
Population Density	Population density (population/km^2)
Mobility	Interregional mobility rate (percentage of newcomers from other regions)
Net Flows	Interregional net flows mobility rate percentage of net flows over the population)
Urban–Rural Classification	Metro large; metro; non-metro close to a small city; non-metro close to a metro; non-metro remote (the comparison group: non-metro remote)
OECD-TL2 (large regions)
Physicians (Doctors) per 1000	Active physicians rate (physicians per 1000 population)
Regional Quality of Government	Regional quality of government in 2017
NEETS (Not in Employment, Education or Training)	Rate of young people not in employment and not in any education and training ( percentage of the total population aged 18–24 years)
Voter Turnout	Voter turnout to general elections ( percentage of registered voters who voted)
PM2 Pollution Index	Air pollution in PM2.5 (average particulate matter (µg/m^3) experienced by the population)
OECD-TL1 (national)
HAQ Index	Health accessibility and quality index 2016
International Travellers Per Capita	International travellers per capita
Max OSI Index	Maximum Oxford stringency index (OSI)
Days Before Max OSI Index	Days before 31 March 2020 to the maximum OSI
Days to First OSI Index Interventions	Days before 31 March 2020 to the first OSI interventions
National Population Density	National population density
National governance effectiveness
ln [Pop/(1 + RAI)]	log National population divided by 1 + regional authority index in 2018
Theil Index of Interregional Inequality	Theil index of interregional inequality in 2016
LAI Index	Local autonomy index in 2014

Note: Countries in models 1–4 and C1–C4 with 520 regions: Belgium, Czech Republic, Denmark, Finland, France, Italy, Portugal, Slovakia, Spain, Sweden and the UK.

Countries in models 5–6 and C5–C6 with 607 regions: Belgium, Czech Republic, Denmark, Finland, France, Italy, the Netherlands, Poland, Portugal, Slovakia, Spain, Sweden and the UK.

Countries in models 7–8 and C7–C8 with 142 regions: Belgium, Czech Republic, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Italy, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Poland, Portugal, Slovakia, Spain, Sweden and the UK.

Table 2. Descriptive statistics

	Deviation of Covid-19 deaths sample					Excess deaths sample
Variable	Observations	Mean	SD	Minimum	Maximum	Observations	Mean	SD	Minimum	Maximum
SD_01-24	672	32.54051	25.54854	5.414535	266.9473
SD_10-24	672	33.41827	29.16558	5.905786	307.9306
sd_Excess Deaths						781	0.16113	0.14854	0.0008	1.48114
GDP Per Capita	695	37,760.42	29,964.99	9336	594,135	758	37,559.56	29,091.52	9336	594,135
Employment Herfindahl Index	696	2040.812	617.7757	21.29886	4476.864	759	2062.167	599.7422	21.29886	4476.864
GVA Herfindahl Index	695	1869.379	778.6881	54.04069	5541.419	758	1822.499	754.0174	54.04069	5902.631
Population Density	696	713.6686	1898.341	1.61	20,979.9	759	709.1408	1828.414	1.61	20,979.9
Mobility	616	2.789058	1.832886	0.24	11.05	711	2.560267	1.805037	0.22	11.05
Net Flows	619	−0.00719	0.469866	−2.07	1.33	714	−0.01031	0.495166	−5.63	1.33
Urban–Rural Classification	668	3.158683	1.353091	1	5	731	3.157319	1.367383	1	5
Physicians (Doctors) per 1000	675	3.365407	1.100644	0.92	7.96	756	3.363003	1.054626	0.75	7.96
Quality of Government	642	0.145308	0.974075	−2.27	2.323	709	0.169185	0.957751	−2.27	2.323
NEETS (Not in Employment, Education or Training)	688	14.10378	6.678767	0	38.9	746	13.41689	6.767854	0	38.9
Voter Turnout	654	70.97122	10.42334	43.81	92.16	735	70.62487	10.97767	34.35	92.16
PM2 Pollution Index	698	11.26745	3.997905	4.41	28.84	779	12.41724	5.073898	4.23	30.92
HAQ Index	700	91.00714	4.567561	77	97	781	90.71575	5.049612	77	97
International Travellers Per Capita	700	4.441474	2.198277	1.235354	21.58134	781	4.033475	2.161201	1.0887	21.58134
Max OSI Index	700	81.40261	8.000638	53.7	91.67	781	81.4711	7.584989	53.7	91.67
Days Before Max OSI Index	700	8.824286	4.120743	1	15	781	7.84507	4.951593	0	15
Days to First OSI Index Interventions	700	61.48857	13.05819	19	71	781	60.9475	13.79348	22	71
National Population Density	700	172.9457	100.4345	3.466019	373.4237	781	179.5035	108.2632	3.466019	415.9546
Governance Effectiveness	700	84.1751	10.03646	65.38	99.52	781	84.05481	10.27128	65.38	99.52
ln [Pop/(1 + RAI)]	700	14.43258	0.978552	12.64667	15.65506	781	14.41403	0.916468	12.64667	15.65506
Theil Index of Interregional Inequality	670	0.096191	0.093425	0	0.24857	751	0.083855	0.083503	0	0.24857
LAI Index	700	60.82814	10.82311	45.7	79.6	781	63.14635	10.39851	45.7	79.6

Table 3. Multilevel hierarchical OECD-TL3 area models of European-wide regional Covid-19-related excess deaths.

	(1)	(2)	(3)	(4)	(5)	(6)
Variables	sd_01_24	sd_01_24	sd_10_24	sd_10_24	sd_Excess Deaths	sd_Excess Deaths
OECD-TL3
GDP Per Capita	−0.0000319	−0.0000236	−0.0000305	−0.0000189	−0.000000109	−0.00000004
	(0.0000285)	(0.0000283)	(0.0000335)	(0.0000334)	(0.000000161)	(0.0000002)
Employment Herfindahl Index	−0.00834**	0.00214	−0.0104**	0.00313	−0.000041**	0.000019
	(0.00376)	(0.00464)	(0.00435)	(0.00545)	(0.0000189)	(0.0000233)
GVA Herfindahl Index	0.00205	0.00108	0.00231	0.000804	0.0000168	−0.0000012
	(0.00305)	(0.00311)	(0.00357)	(0.00365)	(0.0000136)	(0.0000143)
Population Density	1.01e–05	−0.000207	0.000183	−0.0000862	0.00000055	−0.0000004
	(0.000725)	(0.000716)	(0.000854)	(0.000842)	(0.00000395)	(0.0000039)
Mobility	1.755	2.078*	1.614	1.885	0.00759	0.00861
	(1.111)	(1.146)	(1.299)	(1.346)	(0.00588)	(0.00637)
Net Flows	−9.341***	−9.596***	−10.36***	−10.67***	−0.0291**	−0.0310***
	(2.641)	(2.611)	(3.100)	(3.066)	(0.0119)	(0.0118)
Metro Large	5.698	7.152*	7.649	8.764*	0.0604***	0.0634***
	(4.021)	(4.016)	(4.715)	(4.714)	(0.022)	(0.0220)
Metro	0.0339	−0.148	0.670	0.0347	0.023	0.0195
	(3.097)	(3.091)	(3.638)	(3.632)	(0.0171)	(0.0171)
Non-Metro close to Metro	−0.840	−1.803	−0.609	−2.210	0.0217	0.0179
	(3.191)	(3.189)	(3.748)	(3.748)	(0.0176)	(0.0177)
Non-Metro Close to Small City	−2.614	−2.458	−3.070	−3.165	0.00939	0.0102
	(3.122)	(3.080)	(3.667)	(3.618)	(0.0171)	(0.0170)
OECD-TL2
Physicians (Doctors) per 1000	−4.348**	−3.867	−5.169**	−3.988	−0.0101	−0.017
	(2.217)	(2.496)	(2.487)	(2.858)	(0.0105)	(0.0118)
Regional Quality of Government	−3.533	5.479	−3.955	4.574	−0.0066	0.0546
	(3.537)	(6.287)	(3.983)	(7.175)	(0.0193)	(0.0335)
NEETS (Not in Employment, Education or Training)	−0.551	−0.890**	−0.604	−0.915*	−0.00158	−0.00277
	(0.394)	(0.431)	(0.442)	(0.493)	(0.00206)	(0.0021)
Voter Turnout	0.260	0.120	0.246	0.205	0.0002	0.00139
	(0.221)	(0.521)	(0.246)	(0.598)	(0.00111)	(0.0016)
PM2 Pollution Index	0.553	1.266*	0.616	1.165	0.00457*	0.00873***
	(0.615)	(0.725)	(0.690)	(0.829)	(0.00265)	(0.0033)
OECD-TL1 (national)
HAQ index		7.912*		8.918*		0.0107**
		(4.235)		(4.868)		(0.0043)
International Travellers Per Capita		4.055**		4.398*		0.00781
		(2.013)		(2.300)		(0.0066)
Max OSI Index		−3.155**		−2.920*		−0.00447
		(1.402)		(1.602)		(0.0057)
Days Before Max OSI Index		4.258*		4.519		−0.00249
		(2.485)		(2.858)		(0.0035)
Days to First OSI Index Interventions		1.300*		1.355		0.00349
		(0.788)		(0.900)		(0.0026)
National Population Density		−0.114		−0.154		−0.000226
		(0.105)		(0.121)		(0.0003)
National Governance Effectiveness		−1.922***		−1.872**		−0.00770**
		(0.708)		(0.810)		(0.0031)
ln [Pop/(1 + RAI)]		6.471		1.686		0.0334
		(11.94)		(13.63)		(0.0448)
Theil Index of Interregional Inequality		−378.9**		−345.8*		−0.892
		(175.4)		(200.0)		(0.8660)
LAI Index		−5.135***		−5.725***		−0.00986***
		(1.796)		(2.071)		(0.0031)
Constant	39.14*	−146.8	47.47**	−164.7	0.153	0.0109
	(21.07)	(153.8)	(23.56)	(176.2)	(0.105)	(0.4850)
Wald chi^2	36.38	90.83	38.20	88.39	28.83	85.47
Prob > chi^2	0.0016	0.0000	0.0008	0.0000	0.0169	0.0000
AIC	4647.054	4630.584	4808.014	4794.26	−841.3419	−860.6347
BIC	4723.623	4753.945	4884.583	4917.621	−761.9883	−732.7874
Observations (TL3 small regions)	520	520	520	520	607	607
Number of groups (TL2 large regions)	97	97	97	97	121	121

Note: AIC, Akaike information criterion; and BIC, Bayesian information criterion.

Table 4. Grand mean centred OECD-TL3 area multilevel hierarchical models of European-wide regional Covid-19-related excess deaths.

	(C1)	(C2)	(C3)	(C4)	(C5)	(C6)
Variables	c_sd_01_24	c_sd_01_24	c_sd_10_24	c_sd_10_24	c_sd_Excess Deaths	c_sd_Excess Deaths
OECD-TL3
GDP Per Capita	−0.00003306	−0.00002425	−0.0000321	−0.0000195	−0.0000001	−0.00000004
	(0.0000284)	(0.0000284)	(0.0000335)	(0.0000334)	(0.0000002)	(0.0000002)
Employment Herfindahl Index	−0.00708*	0.00246	−0.00886**	0.00347	−0.000041**	0.0000190
	(0.00378)	(0.00464)	(0.00438)	(0.00545)	(0.0000189)	(0.0000233)
GVA Herfindahl Index	0.00193	0.00133	0.00214	0.00106	0.0000168	−0.0000012
	(0.00305)	(0.00311)	(0.00358)	(0.00365)	(0.0000136)	(0.0000143)
Population Density	−0.0000942	−0.000291	0.0000495	−0.000178	0.0000006	−0.0000004
	(0.000723)	(0.000715)	(0.000851)	(0.000840)	(0.0000040)	(0.0000039)
Mobility	2.128*	2.046*	2.089	1.848	0.00759	0.00861
	(1.094)	(1.148)	(1.277)	(1.347)	(0.00588)	(0.00637)
Net Flows	−9.068***	−9.614***	−9.984***	−10.68***	−0.0291**	−0.0310***
	(2.643)	(2.614)	(3.104)	(3.069)	(0.0119)	(0.0118)
Metro Large	5.524	6.703*	7.407	8.282*	0.0604***	0.0634***
	(4.028)	(4.013)	(4.724)	(4.709)	(0.0220)	(0.0220)
Metro	0.212	−0.290	0.903	−0.121	0.023	0.0195
	(3.097)	(3.092)	(3.639)	(3.633)	(0.0171)	(0.0171)
Non-Metro close to Metro	−0.722	−1.898	−0.457	−2.310	0.0217	0.0179
	(3.192)	(3.192)	(3.750)	(3.751)	(0.0176)	(0.0177)
Non-Metro Close to Small City	−2.407	−2.431	−2.808	−3.136	0.00939	0.0102
	(3.121)	(3.084)	(3.667)	(3.622)	(0.0171)	(0.0170)
OECD-TL2
Physicians (Doctors) per 1000	−2.296	−51.67***	−2.867	−57.37***	−0.0101	−0.017
	(2.784)	(16.65)	(3.102)	(19.16)	(0.0105)	(0.0118)
Quality of Government	−3.900	5.463	−4.509	4.544	−0.0066	0.0546
	(4.401)	(6.352)	(4.936)	(7.233)	(0.0193)	(0.0335)
NEETS (Not in Employment, Education or Training)	−0.436	−0.879**	−0.471	−0.903*	−0.00158	−0.00277
	(0.404)	(0.435)	(0.453)	(0.497)	(0.0021)	(0.0021)
Voter Turnout	0.269	0.127	0.258	0.215	0.0002	0.00139
	(0.231)	(0.526)	(0.258)	(0.602)	(0.0011)	(0.0016)
PM2.5 Pollution Index	0.530	1.072	0.602	0.975	0.00457*	0.00873***
	(0.629)	(0.722)	(0.706)	(0.825)	(0.0027)	(0.0033)
OECD-TL1 (national)
HAQ index		−9.237***		−10.22***		0.0107**
		(2.986)		(3.425)		(0.0043)
International Travellers Per Capita		−15.20**		−16.97**		0.00781
		(5.996)		(6.887)		(0.0066)
Max OSI Index		1.147		1.846		−0.00447
		(1.382)		(1.580)		(0.0057)
Days Before Max OSI Index		−0.00608		−0.268		−0.00249
		(1.064)		(1.220)		(0.0035)
Days to First OSI Index Interventions		−3.859**		−4.369**		0.00349
		(1.731)		(1.988)		(0.0026)
National Population Density		0.199**		0.196**		−0.000226
		(0.0811)		(0.0925)		(0.0003)
Governance Effectiveness		−2.643***		−2.674***		−0.00770**
		(0.801)		(0.917)		(0.0031)
ln [Pop/(1 + RAI)]		71.76***		74.46***		0.0334
		(20.62)		(23.65)		(0.0448)
Theil Index of Interregional Inequality		−759.6***		−774.5***		−0.892
		(247.3)		(283.0)		(0.8660)
LAI Index		–		–		−0.00986***
						(0.0031)
Constant	−2.039	6.984	−2.556	8.459	−0.0313*	−0.0412**
	(3.237)	(4.598)	(3.711)	(5.297)	(0.0173)	(0.0174)
Wald chi^2	32.30	86.79	33.50	85.13	28.83	85.47
Prob > chi^2	0.0059	0.0000	0.0040	0.0000	0.0169	0.0000
AIC	4650.121	4630.961	4811.36	4794.192	−841.3419	−860.6347
BIC	4726.69	4750.068	4887.929	4913.299	−761.9883	−732.7874
Observations (TL3 small regions)	520	520	520	520	607	607
Number of groups (TL2 large regions)	97	97	97	97	121	121

Note: AIC, Akaike information criterion; and BIC, Bayesian information criterion.

Standard errors are shown in parentheses. ***p < 0.01, **p < 0.05, *p < 0.1. Some variables are omitted automatically by the software (STATA) because of collinearity.

Table 5. OECD-TL2 area multilevel hierarchical models of European-wide regional Covid-19-related excess deaths.

	(7)	(8)
Variables	sd_Excess Deaths	sd_Excess Deaths
OECD-TL2
Physicians (Doctors) per 1000	−0.0110	−0.0118
	(0.00912)	(0.00913)
Regional Quality of Government	0.0528*
	(0.0296)
Regional Quality of Government (0/1)		−0.0602
		(0.0422)
NEETS (Not in Employment, Education or Training)	−0.00238	−0.00366**
	(0.00183)	(0.00167)
Voter Turnout	0.00174	0.00283**
	(0.00137)	(0.00140)
PM2.5 Pollution Index	0.00741**	0.00725**
	(0.00294)	(0.00296)
OECD-TL1 (national)
HAQ Index	0.0104***	0.0109***
	(0.00387)	(0.00392)
International Travellers Per Capita	0.00460	0.00672
	(0.00592)	(0.00574)
Max OSI Index	−0.000831	−0.00145
	(0.00450)	(0.00449)
Days Before Max OSI Index	−0.00448	−0.00634**
	(0.00298)	(0.00290)
Days to First OSI Index Interventions	0.00200	0.00281
	(0.00192)	(0.00186)
National Population Density	−0.000274	−0.000220
	(0.000198)	(0.000196)
National Government Effectiveness	−0.00682***	−0.000889
	(0.00261)	(0.00226)
ln[Pop/(1 + RAI)]	−0.00430	−0.000492
	(0.0361)	(0.0362)
Theil Index of Interregional Inequality	−0.0201	0.116
	(0.700)	(0.714)
LAI Index	−0.00636**	−0.00594**
	(0.00267)	(0.00271)
Constant	0.0849	−0.566
	(0.430)	(0.473)
Wald chi^2	73.20	71.51
Prob > chi^2	0.0000	0.0000
AIC	−220.3399	−219.2213
BIC	−167.135	−166.0164
Observations (TL2 large regions)	142	142
Number of groups (TL1 countries)	15	15

Note: AIC, Akaike information criterion; and BIC, Bayesian information criterion.

Standard errors are shown in parentheses. ***p < 0.01, **p < 0.05, *p < 0.1.

Table 6. OECD-TL2 area grand mean centred multilevel hierarchical models of European-wide regional Covid-19-related excess deaths.

	(c7)	(c8)
Variables	c_sd_Excess Deaths	c_sd_Excess Deaths
OECD-TL2
Physicians (Doctors) per 1000	−0.0110	−0.0118
	(0.00912)	(0.00913)
Regional Quality of Government	0.0528*
	(0.0296)
Regional Quality of Government (0/1)		−0.0602
		(0.0422)
NEETS (Not in Employment, Education or Training)	−0.00238	−0.00366**
	(0.00183)	(0.00167)
Voter Turnout	0.00174	0.00283**
	(0.00137)	(0.00140)
PM2.5 Pollution Index	0.00741**	0.00725**
	(0.00294)	(0.00296)
OECD-TL1 (national)
HAQ Index	0.0104***	0.0109***
	(0.00387)	(0.00392)
International Travellers Per Capita	0.00460	0.00672
	(0.00592)	(0.00574)
Max OSI Index	−0.000831	−0.00145
	(0.00450)	(0.00449)
Days Before Max OSI Index	−0.00448	−0.00634**
	(0.00298)	(0.00290)
Days to First OSI Index Interventions	0.00200	0.00281
	(0.00192)	(0.00186)
National Population Density	−0.000274	−0.000220
	(0.000198)	(0.000196)
National Government Effectiveness	−0.00682***	−0.000889
	(0.00261)	(0.00226)
ln[Pop/(1 + RAI)]	−0.00430	−0.000492
	(0.0361)	(0.0362)
Theil Index of Interregional Inequality	−0.0201	0.116
	(0.700)	(0.714)
LAI Index	−0.00636**	−0.00594**
	(0.00267)	(0.00271)
Constant	0.00300	0.0350
	(0.0101)	(0.0239)
Wald chi^2	73.20	71.51
Prob > chi^2	0.0000	0.0000
AIC	−220.3399	−219.2213
BIC	−167.135	−166.0164
Observations (TL2 large regions)	142	142
Number of groups (TL1 countries)	15	`15

Note: AIC, Akaike information criterion; and BIC, Bayesian information criterion.

Standard errors are shown in parentheses. ***p < 0.01, **p < 0.05, *p < 0.1.