From forecasts to scenarios in strategic city-regional land-use and transportation planning

Figures & data

Figure 1. Scenario-planning framework: (a) trend scenario extrapolated from a historical trend into the future; (b) explorative scenario plans formulated on the basis of a scenario matrix, alongside the trend scenario; (c) choice of the scenario plan amongst alternative scenario plans to be taken as the normative scenario plan (vision); and (d) backcasting from a given vision to the present, and programming of the development path towards the vision, gradually diverging from the trend scenario path.

Figure 2. Scenario matrix example, regarding emerging mobility technologies and urban planning responses, showing four scenarios, to be elaborated further in the explorative scenario-planning process.

Source: Mladenović and Stead (2021, p. 10).

Table 1. Four approaches to knowledge and truth, and their connections to the four types of scenario planning.

	Making forecasts	Drafting explorative scenarios	Choosing a normative scenario	Backcasting of a development path
Validity of a claim	Correspondence with ‘outer reality’	‘Inner’ coherence	Consent	Instrumentality in practice
Guiding questions	What? Where? When? How many? How often?	How? (giving shape)	Why? Who gains, who loses?	How? (programming action) Who?
Mode of knowing	Explanation	Narration	Argumentation	Instrumentalization
Aristotelian intellectual virtue	Episteme	Techne	Phronesis	Techne
Davoudi (2015)	Knowing what	Knowing how	Knowing to what end, practical judgment	Doing

Mladenović, M. N., & Stead, D. (2021). Emerging mobility technologies and transitions of urban space allocation in a Nordic governance context. In C. Mulley, & J. D. Nelson (Eds.), Urban form and accessibility (pp. 63–82). Elsevier.

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Davoudi, S. (2015). Planning as practice of knowing. Planning Theory, 14(3), 316–331. https://doi.org/10.1177/1473095215575919

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