Selecting Starmer: The Nomination Preferences of Labour Parliamentarians in the 2020 Labour Party Leadership Election

Figures & data

Table 1. The Labour Party Leadership Election 2020.

	Keir Starmer	Rebecca Long-Bailey	Lisa Nandy	Emily Thornberry	Jess Phillips
Stage One:
PLP / EPLP
Nominations	86	33	31	23	23
Percentage	41.5	16.5	14.5	10.8	10.8*
Stage Two:
CLP Nominations	374	164	72	31
Percentage	57.7	25.3	11.0	4.8**
Stage Three
Total Votes:
Votes	275,780	135,218	79,597
Percentage	56.2	27.6	16.2
Party Members:
Votes	225,135	117,598	58,788
Percentage	56.1	29.3	14.6
Registered Supporters:
Votes	10,228	650	2,128
Percentage	76.6	5.0	17.4
Affiliated Supporters:
Votes	40,417	16,970	18,681
Percentage	53.1	22.3	24.6

*Phillips withdrew her candidature after the parliamentary nominations (stage one)

**Thornberry was eliminated after the stage two (CLP nominations)

Notes:

Stage One nomination threshold: 22 nominations or 10 percent of the PLP plus the ten members of the European PLP (EPLP).

Stage Two nomination threshold: five percent of CLPs, 33 in all, or three affiliate groups including two trade unions that together offered representation to over five percent of affiliated members. Thornberry had no support from affiliated trade unions, whereas Starmer was supported by fifteen, Long-Bailey seven and Nandy four out of a total of 32.

Stage Three turnout: 62.6 percent

Sources: Labour Party, 2020a, 2020b; New Statesman, 2020a, 2020b

Table 2. Logistic regression model showing all Model 1 dependent variables as predictors of support for each candidate.

	Starmer	Long-Bailey	Nandy	Phillips	Thornberry	No Nomination
Constant	−16.38 (1035.77)	−3.56 (2.39)	−7.84*** (2.35)	−13.19 (4402.13)	−0.61 (2.51)	2.99 (3.20)
Age	0.03 (0.02)	−0.01 (0.02)	−0.02 (0.02)	−0.06* (0.03)	−0.00 (0.02)	0.03 (0.03)
Male	0.44 (0.31)	0.60 (0.47)	−0.31 (0.44)	−0.33 (0.55)	−0.24 (0.49)	−1.40 (0.83)
BAME	−0.16 (0.41)	0.15 (0.56)	0.41 (0.54)	−18.85 (2501.08)	0.48 (0.54)	1.28 (0.73)
Elected under Corbyn	0.51 (0.52)	−1.63 (1.15)	0.76 (0.70)	−17.63 (3509.50)	0.27 (0.67)	−0.94 (1.30)
Outsider	0.05 (0.36)	−3.61* (1.46)	0.77 (0.52)	1.82** (0.64)	−2.32* (1.06)	−0.21 (0.72)
Elected under Corbyn & Outsider	−0.99 (0.73)	6.41*** (1.89)	−1.13 (0.94)	16.16 (3509.50)	1.74 (1.32)	−19.09 (1344.19)
Remain	16.81 (1035.77)	−1.91* (0.82)	0.95 (1.06)	17.63 (4402.13)	0.31 (1.16)	−4.84** (1.55)
Euroscepticism	−0.06* (0.03)	0.09* (0.04)	0.14*** (0.04)	−0.10* (0.04)	−0.03 (0.04)	−0.05 (0.04)
N. obs.	202	202	202	202	202	202
McFadden R2	0.107	0.274	0.113	0.305	0.09	0.222
Adj MF R2	0.041	0.174	0.009	0.172	−0.041	0.024
AIC	262.25	148.65	171.61	111.65	144.80	88.80
BIC	292.02	178.42	201.38	141.43	174.57	118.57
LogLik	−122.12	−65.32	−76.81	−46.83	−63.40	−35.40

Standard errors in parentheses; ***p < 0.001; **p < 0.01; *p < 0.05.

Table 3. Logistic regression model showing all Model 2 dependent variables as predictors of support for each candidate.

	Starmer	Long-Bailey	Nandy	Phillips	Thornberry	No Nomination
Constant	0.46 (0.87)	0.40 (1.13)	−6.20*** (1.49)	−4.85*** (1.41)	−0.68 (1.13)	−0.70 (1.51)
Northern constituency	0.15 (0.36)	0.80 (0.50)	−0.13 (0.51)	−0.89 (0.59)	0.46 (0.53)	−1.24 (0.81)
Δ Labour vote share 2015–19 (%)	−0.00 (0.03)	−0.12** (0.04)	0.05 (0.04)	0.09* (0.04)	0.03 (0.04)	−0.08 (0.06)
Leave	−0.00 (0.02)	−0.06** (0.02)	0.07** (0.03)	0.05* (0.03)	−0.03 (0.02)	−0.04 (0.03)
CLP Backing (Relative to backing Starmer)
Long-Bailey	−1.48*** (0.37)	1.73*** (0.48)	0.96 (0.54)	−0.23 (0.62)	−0.73 (0.61)	1.64* (0.69)
Nandy	−2.79*** (0.77)	0.17 (0.74)	2.68*** (0.58)	0.62 (0.67)	−0.36 (0.81)	0.13 (1.17)
Thornberry	−1.72 (1.14)	1.17 (1.24)	1.31 (1.23)	0.50 (1.31)	0.35 (1.17)	−14.10 (1671.79)
None	−1.01 (1.29)	3.27* (1.49)	−14.74 (1377.54)	−15.31 (1354.97)	1.09 (1.44)	−13.28 (2028.16)
N. obs.	202	202	202	202	202	202
McFadden R2	0.128	0.178	0.204	0.095	0.062	0.129
Adj MF R2	0.070	0.089	0.111	−0.023	−0.053	−0.048
AIC	254.47	163.94	153.91	137.96	146.39	95.36
BIC	280.93	190.41	180.38	164.43	172.85	121.83
LogLik	−119.23	−73.97	−68.96	−60.98	−65.19	−39.68

*** p < 0.001; **p < 0.01; *p < 0.05.

Table 4. Logistic regression model showing all Model 3 dependent variables as predictors of support for each candidate.

	Starmer	Long-Bailey	Nandy	Phillips	Thornberry	No Nomination
Constant	0.62 (0.40)	−4.17* (1.65)	−0.94* (0.47)	−3.71*** (0.91)	−3.74*** (0.85)	−5.12*** (1.41)
Deputy nomination (relative to backing Rayner)
Allin-Khan	−0.71 (0.55)	−19.09 (5603.04)	−0.50 (0.71)	1.62 (1.08)	1.63* (0.81)	1.81 (1.52)
Burgon	−0.48 (1.31)	0.18 (1.50)	−15.59 (1852.26)	−13.04 (2964.66)	−0.35 (1.33)	−16.53 (2128.60)
Murray	−1.25** (0.46)	−17.69 (4566.44)	−1.07 (0.69)	3.07*** (0.83)	1.30 (0.89)	1.46 (1.34)
Butler	−0.46 (0.52)	−5.30** (2.03)	−0.19 (0.64)	1.40 (1.06)	1.97** (0.71)	1.01 (1.54)
No Nomination	−1.29* (0.63)	−27.66 (5050.21)	−0.31 (0.74)	1.30 (1.31)	0.41 (1.25)	4.34*** (1.32)
Previous leadership election nomination behaviour (relative to never nominated Corbyn)
Nominated Corbyn twice	−16.39 (904.33)	6.10* (2.65)	−16.65 (2356.62)	−17.08 (3968.13)	2.77* (1.11)	0.97 (1.83)
Corbyn in 2015, not Corbyn in 2016	−0.14 (0.64)	−15.92 (6283.68)	0.12 (0.87)	−1.15 (1.22)	1.61 (1.00)	0.00 (1.24)
Not Corbyn in 2015, Corbyn in 2016	−1.78* (0.88)	3.65* (1.74)	−0.81 (1.14)	−16.99 (4445.86)	2.98** (0.98)	−15.20 (2677.33)
Not Elected	−0.48 (0.46)	0.52 (1.78)	0.16 (0.54)	−0.24 (0.81)	1.52* (0.77)	−0.38 (1.45)
Socialist Campaign Group	−2.87* (1.19)	6.58*** (1.74)	−17.24 (1573.36)	−15.52 (2560.45)	−1.51 (1.02)	1.74 (1.77)
Tribune	0.38 (0.39)	0.10 (1.48)	−0.05 (0.50)	−0.85 (0.68)	−0.36 (0.80)	−0.26 (0.93)
Progress	−0.03 (0.40)	−4.40 (6.30)	−1.25 (0.66)	1.32* (0.61)	−0.56 (0.79)	1.80 (1.00)
Labour Friends of Israel	−0.01 (0.38)	1.24 (1.55)	−0.01 (0.48)	0.16 (0.60)	−0.33 (0.72)	−0.11 (0.90)
N. obs.	202	202	202	202	202	202
McFadden R2	0.200	0.813	0.142	0.345	0.235	0.375
Adj MF R2	0.010	0.658	−0.019	0.137	0.034	0.068
AIC	246.84	61.57	176.53	116.32	134.34	84.89
BIC	293.15	107.89	222.85	162.64	180.65	131.21
LogLik	−109.42	−16.79	−74.27	−44.16	−53.17	−28.45

***p < 0.001; **p < 0.01; *p < 0.05.

Table

	Starmer	Long−Bailey	Nandy	Phillips	Thornberry	No Nomination
(Intercept)	−13.91 (923.21)	−3.01 (1.90)	−9.49*** (2.31)	−2.52 (3.34)	−3.51*** (0.63)	10.78 (5.73)
Male	0.53 (0.37)					−2.49 (1.43)
Remain	16.10 (923.21)	−2.49 (1.50)				−6.29* (3.06)
Δ Labour vote share 2015–19 (%)	−0.06 (0.03)			0.21** (0.07)
Constituency leave vote	−0.04* (0.02)			0.12** (0.05)
CLP nominated Bailey	−1.11* (0.46)		1.10 (0.58)			1.72 (1.13)
CLP nominated Nandy	−3.36*** (0.81)	−2.55 (1.69)	3.18*** (0.69)
MP nominated Rayner	1.30** (0.40)	3.35** (1.26)	1.27 (0.69)			−5.75** (1.88)
MP nominated Corbyn (2016)	−2.19** (0.83)	3.06* (1.29)			2.47** (0.79)
Socialist Campaign Group	−3.29** (1.13)		−18.23 (1668.37)		−1.38 (0.89)	2.75 (1.55)
BAME		−2.13* (1.04)		−18.29 (2251.72)
Elected under Corbyn		−1.35 (3.07)		−19.71 (2828.52)	1.66** (0.62)	0.82 (1.55)
Outsider		−2.35 (2.44)	0.80 (0.53)	0.77 (0.80)	−0.95 (0.61)	−2.05 (1.25)
Elected under Corbyn & Outsider		7.10 (3.97)		18.51 (2828.52)		−21.74 (3213.05)
CLP nominated Starmer		−1.81* (0.89)
MP nominated Burgon		6.92*** (1.66)				−26.89 (4339.78)
Euroscepticism			0.14** (0.05)	−0.11 (0.06)		−0.11 (0.07)
MP nominated Khan			1.66 (0.98)		1.81* (0.79)	−3.04 (1.66)
MP nominated Butler			1.59 (0.87)		1.94** (0.64)	−5.90** (2.24)
Progress			−1.72* (0.81)	1.26 (0.74)		3.32 (1.75)
Age				−0.08* (0.03)
MP nominated Murray				3.22*** (0.80)	1.42 (0.84)	−4.47* (2.11)
N. obs.	202	202	202	202	202	202
McFadden R2	0.338	0.707	0.374	0.539	0.228	0.558
Adj MF R2	0.265	0.585	0.259	0.376	0.113	0.228
AIC	201.21	74.63	128.33	84.16	123.33	70.24
BIC	234.29	111.02	161.41	120.55	149.79	119.87
LogLik	−90.60	−26.32	−54.16	−31.08	−53.66	−20.12

***p < 0.001; **p < 0.01; *p < 0.05.

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