The British use of domestic political situations during the Falklands War

ABSTRACT

In 1982 Argentina invaded the Falklands Islands which led to a war against Britain. After the end of the war, an often-used argument was that the British government decided to re-conquer the Islands militarily because of domestic politics considerations, namely avoiding losing the upcoming election. This article offers to quantitively and qualitatively analyse recently declassified documents by the British government to study this claim. These analyses show that if there were elements referring to the domestic situation by the British government, they were used in a strategy to gain support during the most critical phase of the conflict.

KEYWORDS:

• Diversionary war
• Falkland Islands
• international relations theories
• elections
• domestic politics
• public opinion

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).

Notes

1. 26 October 1983, possibly Richard Utter? (document very hard to read), Philadelphia Daily News, OA 9450, Meese Files, Reagan Library

2. For example, Lord Carrington, the Foreign Secretary was in favour of a negotiated solution, even after the invasion.

3. 10 May 1979, ‘Falkland Islands’, minute from Ure to Ridley. Thatcher Foundation. See also 25 January 1980, ‘Falkland Islands’, OD (79)31. Thatcher Foundation.

4. Codes are constructed around, but not only, direct references to elections, the need to maintain parliamentary majority, influence of polls and lobby groups, use of a lexical field related to losses (‘losing’, ‘decreasing’, ‘vanishing’, ‘collapse’, etc.) and to gains (‘gains’, ‘more’, ‘increase’, etc.).

5. The argument being that the government was accused of not having taken seriously early signs of a potential invasion, nor did it envisage that if the Argentine perceived the negotiations being in a dead-end, they would resort to other means (especially once the Argentine navy was dominating the Argentine government). An example of such ‘early’ warning can be found in: 11 December 1981, ‘Argentina, internal’, letter from the UK Embassy in Buenos Aires Fearn, Thatcher Foundation. The British were also made aware that the Argentine press called for a remake of the Goa invasion to sort out the issue. Such example can be found in: 16 November 1980, ‘The Falklands: Argentine press coverage’. Thatcher Foundation.

6. 15 October 1979 note from No 10 to FCO.

7. 30 March 1982 minute from FCO to Thatcher.

8. 30 March 1982 minutes of Defence Operations Executive meeting.

9. 30 March 1982 minute from FCO to Thatcher.

10. 30 March 1982 minutes of Defence Operations Executive meeting.

11. 30 March 1982 minute from FCO to Thatcher.

12. 10 May 1979 minute from Ure to Ridley.

13. 30 March 1982 minutes of Defence Operations Executive meeting.

14. Allan Robert’s question is representative of this: ‘Will the Prime Minister consider the consequences of the Government’s mishandling of the Falklands crisis for quite a number of my constituents’. 6 April 1982, Prime Minister’s Questions, Hansard Digest, HC 2/822-26, Column 822.

15. 2 April 1982 09:45, Cabinet minutes, Thatcher Foundation; see also 2 April 1982 19:30 cabinet minutes.

16. 3 April 1982 notes from Ian Gow of 1922 Committee Meeting.

17. 20 September 1979 minute from Carrington to Thatcher.

18. 3 December 1980 OD(80) 25^th.

19. Nicholas Ridley was Margaret Thatcher’s Minister of State at the Foreign and Commonwealth Office. He was specifically in charge of policies concerning Falklands islands. After visiting the islands in 1979, he concluded that Britain could not afford to defend them.

20. 3 April 1982 minutes of Ministry of Defence Chiefs of Staff committee, COS 3^rd meeting 1982.

21. 8 April 1982 (both quotes) No 10 record of dinner conversation between Thatcher and Haig.

22. 12 April 1982 No 10 record of conversation between Thatcher and Haig, 3rd meeting.

23. 14 April 1982 record of 2nd No 10 telephone conversation between Thatcher and Haig.

24. 14 April 1982 record of No 10 telephone conversation between Thatcher and Haig, full transcript of 2nd call.

25. 19 April 1982 OD and Defence Subcommittee.

26. 4 May 1982 letter from Thatcher to Reagan.