When will Helicobacter pylori gastritis disappear in history in Finland?

Figures & data

Figure 1. Schematic illustration of prevalences (in percentage) of cases with or without the H. pylori related non-atrophic gastritis (CG) or atrophic gastritis (AG) in birth cohorts of native Finns over a time span of 200 years. Each birth cohort is considered to include 100 people that are expected to live 100 years. It is assumed that the cohort-specific proportion of ‘diseased’ stomachs (with H. pylori related CG or AG) decreases with time, cohort-by-cohort, by 10% per every 10-year period.

Table 1. Table on predictions of prevalences of cases with normal stomach (N) without H. pylori gastrites) and of the cases with H. pylori related chronic non-atrophic (CG) or atrophic (AG) gastritis in birth cohorts of adult native Finns (800 subjects in eight birth cohorts) in the 2020s.

Cohort born, years	Age in 2021–2030, years	‘Hypothetical population’ with 100 people in each birth cohort				‘Actual population’ adjusted by ‘age pyramid’ of Finnish population in 2019
		Number of people in each birth cohort	N, number	CG, number	AG, number	Number of people in each birth cohort	N, number	CG, number	AG, number
1931–1940	90–100	100	40	18	42	10	4	2	4
1941–1950	80–89	100	50	20	30	70	35	14	21
1951–1960	70–79	100	60	20	20	110	66	22	22
1961–1970	60–69	100	70	18	12	120	84	22	14
1971–1980	50–59	100	80	14	6	120	96	17	7
1981–1990	40–49	100	90	8	2	130	117	10	3
1991–2000	30–39	100	100	0	0	130	130	0	0
2001–2010	20–29	100	100	0	0	110	110	0	0
All		800	590	98	112	800	642	87	71

The predictions are presented in framework of a ‘hypothetical’ population with equal number of subjects (100 cases) in each birth cohort but also in framework of a ‘actual’ population in Finland in the 2020s. In ‘actual’ population, the number of people in each cohort category (altogether 800 adult subjects) are readjusted by weights from the ‘age pyramid’ of Finnish population in 2019. In prediction of the frequencies of N, CG or AG cases in each birth cohort category, it is assumed that the cohort-specific frequency proportion of CG or AG cases (with ‘diseased’ stomach mucosa, i.e. with H. pylori induced gastritis) decreases gradually, cohort-by-cohort, by 10% per every 10-year period as illustrated in Figure 1. It is also assumed that the H. pylori induced CG cases progress to AG cases during the adulthood (from age 20 years onward), with the aging of the CG subjects, by rate of 10% per every 10-year period.