Risk of gastric carcinoma will be low in generations born at turn of the 20^th and 21^st centuries in Finland. Modelling NORDCAN data of the age group specific incidence rates of gastric cancer with PLS-regression and with attention to age (‘age effect’) and year of the birth (‘cohort effect’)

Figures & data

Figure 1. Age group-specific incidence rates (IR) of gastric cancer (GCA) per 100 000 people in relation to birth cohorts (‘cohort effect’) and age groups (‘age effect’) in NORDCAN database among Finnish men born in 1900–1904 or later. The figure on the left shows the IRs in cohort groups born from 1900–1904 to1960–1964 and the figure on the right demonstrates the IRs in cohort groups born from 1940–1944 to 1980–1984.

Figure 2. Age group–specific incidence rates (IR) of gastric cancer (GCA) per 100,000 people in relation to the period of GCA diagnosis (‘period effect’) and age groups (‘age effect’) in NORDCAN database in Finnish men born in 1900–1904 or later.

Figure 3. 3D–graph on age group specific incidence rates (IR) of gastric cancer (GCA) per 100,000 people in relation to birth cohort (‘cohort effect’) and age group (‘age effect’) in NORDCAN database in Finnish men born in 1900–1904 or later.

Figure 4. 3D–graph on the group specific incidence rates (IR) of gastric cancer (GCA) per 100,000 people in relation to period of GCA diagnosis (‘period effect’) and age group (‘age effect’) in NORDCAN database in Finnish men born in 1900–1904 or later.

Table 1. Table on goodness of fit statistics of models tested by PLSR concerning observed IR of GCA as Y–variable and various combinations of age, cohort and period as explanatory X–variables. Observations from Finnish men.

Parameters in PLSR model	Obs.	DF	Q^2Y cum	R^2Y cum	R^2X cum	MSE	RMSE
[1] Age + Cohort	154	152	0.926	0.963	0.053	0.190	0.436
[2] Age	154	152	0.880	0.900	0.083	0.513	0.717
[3] Cohort	154	152	0.510	0.666	0.052	1.720	1.311
[4] Period	154	152	–0.134	0.024	0.084	5.030	2.243
[5] Age + Period	154	152	0.916	0.940	0.042	0.311	0.557
[6] Age + Cohort + Period	154	152	0.891	0.938	0.041	0.319	0.565
[7] Age + Cohort + Period with all interactions	154	152	0.407	0.994	0.009	0.300	0.172

For abbreviations, see the special section in Materials and Methods.

Figure 5. Standardized regression coefficients (with 95%CI) in PLSR with ln(IR) data of GCA as a quantitative response parameter and the consecutive 5–year categories of calendar age (‘age effect’), birth cohort (‘cohort effect’) and period (‘period effect’) of GCA diagnosis as explanatory variables without any interaction terms. Finnish men.

Figure 6. Fit between the observed and predicted (estimated) ln(IR)s of GCA per 100 000 Finnish men and women in PLSR modelling (option [1] in Table 1).

Table 2. Annual observed and PLSR–precited incidence rates (IR) of GCA per 100 000 people in 5–year categories of birth cohorts and age groups among native men born in Finland in 1900–1904 or later.

Cohort born	Age group, years	Predicted IR of GCA (95%CI)  per 100 000	Observed IR of GCA per 100 000	Year of the GCA diagnosis	Estimate of decade specific prevalence rate ofH. pylori gastritis (%)
1900–1904	20–24	4 (4–5)		1923	90
	40–44	53 (48–58)		1943
	60–64	196 (172–224)	183	1963
	80–84	343 (296–398)	314	1983
1910–1914	20–24	3		1933	80
	40–44	35 (32–38)		1953
	60–64	130 (115–147)	108	1973
	80–84	228 (199–261)	219	1993
1920–1924	20–24	2		1943	70
	40–44	23 (21–25)	15	1963
	60–64	84 (76–94)	83	1983
	80–84	148 (130–167)	145	2003
1930–1934	20–24	1		1953	60
	40–44	13 (12–14)	10	1973
	60–64	47 (42–51)	48	1993
	80–84	82 (73–91)	92	2013
1940–1944	20–24	1	0	1963	50
	40–44	7 (7–8)	9	1983
	60–64	28 (26–30)	32	2003
	80–84	49 (44–54)		2023
1950–1954	20–24	0	0	1973	40
	40–44	5 (5–6)	7	1993
	60–64	20 (19–22)	23	2013
	80–84	35 (32–39)		2033
1960–1964	20–24	0	0	1983	30
	40–44	3 (2–3)	4	2003
	60–64	10 (9–10)		2023
	80–84	17 (15–18)		2043
1970–1974	20–24	0	0	1993	20
	40–44	2	3	2013
	60–64	6 (6–7)		2033
	80–84	11 (10–12)		2053
1980–1984	20–24	0	0	2003	10
	40–44	1		2023
	60–64	6 (5–6)		2043
	80–84	10 (9–10)		2063
1990–1994	20–24	0	0	2013	<1
	40–44	1		2033
	60–64	4 (3–4)		2053
	80–84	6 (6–7)		2073

Estimations and 95% confidence intervals of IR rates are done by the PLSR modelling by applying the birth cohort and age group as explanatory categorical variables (option [1] in Table 1). The table also gives the previous estimates for mean prevalence rates of H. pylori gastritis in 10–year birth cohorts of Finnish males and females born 1900–1909, 1910–1919, etc. See references [8] and [9] for more details.

Correa P. Helicobacter pylori and gastric carcinogenesis. Am J Surg Pathol. 1995;19(Suppl 1):S37–S43.

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Sipponen P. Helicobacter pylori: a cohort phenomenon. Am J Surg Pathol. 1995;19(Suppl 1):S30–S6.

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