Analysis of the risk of introduction and spread of porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome virus through importation of raw pigmeat into New Zealand

Abstract

AIMS: To determine the frequency with which porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome (PRRS) virus (PRRSv) would become established in a non-commercial pig herd in New Zealand due to illegal feeding of uncooked food waste containing virus-contaminated pigmeat. To determine the likelihood of a single incursion resulting in a multi-farm outbreak of the disease, and describe the spatio-temporal characteristics of such an outbreak.

METHODS: A Monte Carlo simulation model was constructed to determine the expected annual frequency of PRRSv infection being initiated in a non-commercial pig herd as a result of inadvertent feeding of pigmeat imported from countries endemically infected with the disease. Once the likelihood of PRRSv becoming established in a single pig herd was determined, stochastic spatially explicit infectious disease modelling software was utilised to model the temporal and spatial characteristics of the resulting epidemic.

RESULTS: Assuming the proportion of imported pigmeat remained at current levels, consumption patterns of pigmeat in households in New Zealand remained steady, and limited compliance with recently reintroduced regulations to prevent feeding of uncooked food waste, at least 4.3 pig herds per year were predicted to become infected with PRRSv. Simulation modelling of PRRSv epidemics related to initial infection of a non-commercial farm produced an estimate that 36% of these incursions would spread from the initial herd, and that these outbreaks would involve 93 herds on average in the first year. By increasing the estimated persistence of PRRSv infection in small herds, an average of 205 herds became infected in the first year.

CONCLUSIONS: Given a mean of 4.3 infected premises per year and a 36% probability of infection spreading beyond the initial infected herd, there was a 95% likelihood of a multi-farm PRRS outbreak occurring within 3 years.

CLINICAL RELEVANCE: Introduction of PRRSv through importation of virus-contaminated pigmeat presents a high risk for establishment of the disease in the pig industry in New Zealand.

KEYWORDS:

• PRRS
• PRRSv
• porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome virus
• infectious disease
• waste food
• risk analysis

Acknowledgements

Assistance with computer modelling by Bryan O'Leary and Greg Bolton is gratefully acknowledged. Provision of pigmeat consumption data and assistance with development of model parameters was greatly facilitated by Frances Clements and Shankar Cumarasamy of NZPIB. Review of the model structure by Naomi Cogger is appreciated.