Navigating the rapids of agrifood systems transformation: reflections on Aotearoa New Zealand’s emerging mission-oriented agrifood innovation system

Figures & data

Figure 1. The X-curve showing the phases of simultaneous build up and breakdown that characterise system transformation. Source: Hebinck et al. (2022).

Table 1. Interpretation of some current New Zealand agrifood system transition dynamics based on the authors’ desk-based research.

Class of future		X-curve stage initiative
technologies	New Zealand-based initiatives	is operating at	Sources
Cellular agriculture (e.g. artificial meat, molecular printing)	Crown Research Institutes (CRIs) and universities researching cellular agriculture to develop capability, commercial opportunities and understanding of functionality and nutritional repercussions. Includes largest global publicly funded grant for cellular-agriculture research (University of Auckland).BioTechNZ and AgriTechNZ led discussion of cellular agriculture.Major food producers (e.g. Fonterra) investing in overseas cellular agriculture start-ups (e.g. Motif FoodWorks).No cellular agriculture start-ups, and NZ perceived as lagging in commercial cellular agriculture.Food Standards Australia New Zealand (FSANZ) require premarket approval.No cellular agriculture products available in NZ supermarkets at time of writing.	Early experimentation phase, with focus on academic research, investing in overseas start-ups and governance via existing food standards.Connections with gene technology.Described as a green alternative to co-exist alongside pasture-based farming to ensure future global population is fed without damaging the environment.	https://matu.co.nz/2021/03/hot-topic-cellular-agriculture/https://www.pmcsa.ac.nz/topics/cellular-agriculture/https://thefeed.co.nz/2022/08/01/new-zealand-lab-grown-food-research-boosted-by-new-alliance/https://agritechnz.org.nz/event/agritechnz-biotechnz-connect-event/
Digital agriculture (e.g. artificial intelligence, traceability technologies)	CRI’s, universities, industry bodies (e.g. DairyNZ), farmer cooperatives (e.g. Livestock Improvement Corporation, Ballance AgriNutrients) and private research institutes (e.g. PlantTech Research Institute) researching, developing and commercialising digital technologies, agriculture practices, and barriers to adoption.Digital innovation led by individual and groups of farmers.Existing (e.g. Gallagher), growing (e.g. Rezare Systems) and startup (e.g. Halter NZ) commercial companies developing digital technologies.AgriTech New Zealand – an association of organisations and individuals growing. New Zealand’s capability to maximise opportunities from agritech. Projects on baselining adoption, agricultural data interoperability and sharing examples.AgriTech Industry Transformation Plan (ITP) provides a Government vision for the agritech sector, along with Government actions to realise this vision in partnership with industry.	Moving from experimentation to acceleration as digital technologies becoming established on more farms and more agritech companies establish.Emergence of an ecosystem of agritech providers, Government, industry and research is occurring through facilitation by cross organisation groups such as AgriTech NZ, AgriTechITP and KPMG.Very early phase of institutionalisation with questions regarding data governance, Māori data sovereignty beginning to be raised but not yet addressed in policy.Many actors in the ecosystem and now emerging attempts at coordination of activities (e.g. MPI and KPMG).	https://www.agresearch.co.nz/nzbida/https://www.planttechresearch.com/https://am.gallagher.com/en-NZhttps://halterhq.com/https://agritechnz.org.nz/https://home.kpmg/au/en/home/media/press-releases/2021/09/new-data-exchange-revolution-ise-australian-agrifood-sector-14-september-2021.htmlhttps://www.mbie.govt.nz/dmsdocument/11572-growing-innovative-industries-in-new-zealand-agritech-industry-transformation-plan-july-2020-pdfhttps://home.kpmg/au/en/home/media/press-releases/2021/09/new-data-exchange-revolution-ise-australian-agrifood-sector-14-september-2021.htmlhttps://www.temanararaunga.maori.nz/
	KPMG facilitated NZ Agrifood Data Exchange to develop examples of ecosystem-level sharing of data.Ministry for Primary Industry (MPI) initiatives on model and data interoperability.Māori Data Sovereignty in context of genomic data broadening to include all data.	Limited initiatives debating the direction of development and desired outcomes from digital agriculture. Currently described as ways to increase efficiency and productivity and meet environmental and animal welfare requirements of regulations and consumers.
Nature-based (e.g. regenerative agriculture)	CRI, university and National Science Challenge research to build a scientific evidence-based of the benefits of regenerative agriculture.Food retailers (e.g. MacDonalds, Countdown), agribusiness (AgriSea) and producers (e.g. Ngāi Tahu Farming, Synlait) are trialling regenerative agriculture principles and practices.Industry bodies (e.g. Beef + Lamb NZ) exploring market potential and comparisons of NZ and overseas practices.Greenpeace promotion of regenerative agriculture to clean up NZ rivers and reduce net-GHG emissions.Building networks of farmers (Quorum Sense) and cross sector leaders with government support.No defined standards or regulations for regenerative agriculture, with activities by government and science to develop these.	Established experimentation phase with existing network of regenerative farmers and building evidence of regenerative agriculture practices by food system actors.Early acceleration phase with networks of producers, retailers, scientists and policy makers emerging.Early emergence phase with farmer networks providing a structure for sharing of farmer knowledge and support.Some evidence of chaos phase with conflict between opposing interests within academia and within agribusiness.	https://www.greenpeace.org/aot-earoa/campaign/regenerative-farming-revolution/https://ourlandandwater.nz/incentives-for-change/regenera-tive-agriculture-regen-ag/https://ourlandandwater.nz/news/countdown-is-testing-regenera-tive-principles/https://beeflambnz.com/news-views/beef-lamb-new-zealand-research-regenerative-agricul-ture-markethttps://thedig.nz/apocaloptimism/insight-into-regenerative-agriculture-in-new-zealand-the-good-the-bad-and-the-opportunity/https://pureadvantage.org/social-cohesion-in-rural-communities-with-sam-lang/https://www.ravensdown.co.nz/expertise/regenerative-agri-culture-insight-or-soundbite

Table 2. New Zealand agrifood innovation system support for mission-oriented innovation.

Characteristics of mission-oriented innovation (Mazzucato, 2016)	NZ AIS support for mission-oriented innovation (strenghts and weaknesses)	Strengths and weaknesses of support for mission-oriented innovation	Sources
Clear direction setting from the start	Eleven National Science Challenges (NSCs) identification of visions through societal, government, industry and research input. For example Our Land and Water NSC’s objective is ‘To enhance the production and productivity of New Zealand’s primary sector, while maintaining and improving the quality of the country’s land and water for future generations.' High Value Nutrition NSC vision is ‘To grow New Zealand food and beverage export revenue through international leadership in the science of food and health relationships.’Eight Government Industry Transformation Plans (ITP) (e.g. AgriTech, Fisheries, Food and Beverage, Forestry and Wood Processing) created in partnership with industry, Māori, and Government, to set ambitious long-term visions for sectors and identify actions for investment. For example, Food and Beverage ITP will support the growth of sustainable, innovative, and high-value food and beverage exports from existing and emerging industries. The ITP is not seeking to transform the food and beverage sector in its entirety.Fit for a Better World presents a vision for New Zealand’s primary sector of ‘rapidly moving to a low carbon emissions society, restoring the health of our water, reversing the decline in biodiversity and, at the same time, feeding our people’. Fit for a Better World identifies three targets where the primary sectors can contribute to New Zealand’s economic recovery, e.g. reduce biogenic methane to 24–47% below 2017 levels by 2050.The Climate Change Commission has set GHG emission reduction targets and 33 recommendations for how to achieve these. Pricing of agricultural emissions in response to Climate Change Commission and He Waka Eke Noa is currently under consultation, and is contentious amongst the rural sector right now so this is where the energy of the sector is focused. Pricing has equity implications for farmers with clear winners and losers (sheep and beef of which many are Māori land blocks).	Several Government, industry and research-led initiatives have set visions and targets for parts of the New Zealand agri-food sector, e.g. Our Land and Water NSC has set a vision for food production and improving land and water quality;the Food and Beverage ITP vision is to grow export revenue. There is no evidence of deliberate alignment of visions, however, many appear to align.The visions appear to be an optimisation of the current agri-food system, e.g. increasing economic and export growth while also improving environmental and social improvements.Current visions may align as they focus on optimisation rather than exploring radical alternatives to current systems of agrifood production and consumption.Attempts at cross-sector visions appear to breakdown when mechanisms for implementation are proposed, e.g. pricing agricultural emissions.	National Science Challenge Strategic Plans 2019–2024Industry Transformation Planshttps://fitforabetterworld.org.nz/https://environment.govt.nz/assets/publications/Pricing-agricultural-emissions-consultation-document.pdf
A portfolio of innovation projects to embrace risks, failures, and uncertainties	The 11 National Science Challenges have research plans with the based science identified to achieving the Challenge objective, including a credible impact pathway of research and related activities. Each Challenge involves public outreach and exhibits strong engagement between researchers and intended end users of the research activity.ITPs have action plans that include immediate high impact projects and longer-term workstreams of innovation, market development, and regulatory activity including lead agencies across Government.Fit for a Better World includes an ‘Acceleration Roadmap’ with transformational and other opportunities across industry, regulation, and research to achieve productivity, sustainability, and inclusiveness targets. For example, He Waka Eke Noa has been a key action to develop a system for farmers to generate and record their emissions footprint.Desk-based analyses of New Zealand’s food sector opportunities (e.g. Well NZ: Reframing New Zealand's Food Sector Opportunities) related to alternative protein technologies (plant-based, cell-based and precision fermentation), personalised nutrition and food-as-software, have also been develop over the past two years.	There is evidence of portfolios of regulatory, technological and market innovation to realise missions, however, there appears to be limited diversity and risk-taking to explore and learn from the implementation of alternative pathways.There appears to be a dominance of innovations focused on optimisation of the current agri-food system, with limited exploration of radically alternative pathways as part of the mainstream discourse.For example, He Waka Eke Noa proposed a systems for farmers to generate and record their emissions footprint which has been proving contentious when linked to the pricing of emissions.	https://www.mbie.govt.nz/science-and-technology/science-and-innovation/funding-information-and-opportunities/investment-funds/national-science-challenges/https://www.mbie.govt.nz/dmsdocument/11572-growing-innovative-industries-in-new-zealand-agritech-industry-transformation-plan-july-2020-pdfhttps://www.mpi.govt.nz/dmsdocument/41031-Fit-for-a-Better-World-Accelerating-our-economic-potentialhttps://fitforabetterworld.org.nz/assets/Te-Puna-Whakaaronui-publications/WELL-NZ-summary.pdf
Investments across different sectors by different types of actors (public, private and third sector actors along the innovation chain)	The 11 National Science Challenges include investment from end users in the Challenge’s research.ITPs and Fit for a Better World include identification of public and private sector-led activities, e.g. Government is leading modernisation of export legislation and industry is leading natural fibre product development and delivery of new products to market.	The Industry Transformation Plans, Fit for a Better World and He Waka Eke Noa are examples of increased partnering between Māori, Government and industry to achieve increased coordination of and investment in initiatives. This is helping to address an historical weakness in the NZ AIS of duplication, competition and lack of coordination (Turner et al., 2016).
Joined up policymaking (transformative policy mixes)	Recognition in ITPs of the need to link to other industry strategies and reforms where possible, e.g. the Food and Beverage ITP recognises links to Te Puna Whakaaronui (Food and Fibre Sector Think Tank), Te Ara Paerangi (reform of science system) and Reform of Vocational Education.Fit for a Better World recognises need to align regulatory and research settings to the primary sector’s strategic direction.Climate Change Commission includes policy recommendations across sectors to realise GHG reductions from construction, transport and agriculture.	There is recognition of the need to align policies as part of the ITPs and Fit for a Better World. There is, however, limited evidence of explicit design of cross-sector policies to deliver to visions.
Reflexivity to avoid lock-in scenarios (that a mission becomes a fixation whilst it turns out to be no longer the most viable, just and equitable option)	NSCs had a strategic refresh after 5-years to update strategies and research plans to respond to changes in the research landscape, progress and Government and industry initiatives. The overall objectives, however, remained.ITPs, Fit for a Better World and NSCs include outcomes, indicators and monitoring of these to demonstrate progress toward objectives.	Limited evidence of reflexivity, with monitoring focused on accountability for realising action plan targets. Less evidence of critical reflection on the direction of visions and limited examples of consideration of equitable outcomes (Climate Change Commission is an example).
‘exnovation’ which is about proactively achieving the breakdown and phase-out of current unsustainable systems	Climate Change Commission has set targets for phasing out industry activities, e.g. phase out of fossil fuels used in boilers.	There is no evidence of activities explicitly focused on breakdown and phase-out in the agri-food sector.	https://ccc-production-media.s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/public/Inaia-tonu-nei-a-low-emissions-future-for-Aotearoa/Recommendations-from-Inaia-tonu-nei-Advice-Report.pdf
Attention to elements of justice and equity	One of the three pillars of Fit for a Better World is Inclusive with the target of employing 10% more New Zealanders from all walks of life in the primary sectors by 2030. Other activities include supporting rural communities through development of community hubs and supporting vulnerable communities with healthy food options.Climate Change Commission recommendations (27 and 28) include recognition a Māori-led approach to an equitable transition for Iwi/Māori and a fair, inclusive, and equitable transition.Just Transition Workplan development, investment and partnership by Government with region’s exiting from significant economic activities, e.g. aluminium smelter in Southland and oil and gas in Taranaki.	Limited evidence of activities addressing justice and equity from transformation of the agri-food sector. Just Transitions are focused on supporting regions with significant infrastructure investments in industries that are being phased-out, e.g. oil and gas in Taranaki.	https://www.mpi.govt.nz/dmsdocument/41031-Fit-for-a-Better-World-Accelerating-our-economic-potentialhttps://www.mbie.govt.nz/business-and-employ-ment/economic-development/just-transition/https://southlandjusttransition.nz/

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