Russian nuclear weapons, 2023

Figures & data

Table 1. Russian nuclear forces, 2023.

Type/name	Russian designation	Launchers	Year deployed	Warheads x yield (kilotons)	Total warheads^a
Strategic offensive weapons
ICBMs
SS-18 M6 Satan	RS-20V (Voevoda)	34	1988	10 x 500/800 (MIRV)	340^b
SS-19 M3 Stiletto	RS-18 (UR-100NUTTH)	0	1980	6 x 400 (MIRV)	0^c
SS-19 M4	? (Avangard)	7	2019	1 x HGV	7
SS-25 Sickle	RS-12M (Topol)	0^d	1988	1 x 800	0
SS-27 Mod 1 (mobile)	RS-12M1 (Topol-M)	18	2006	1 x 800?	18
SS-27 Mod 1 (silo)	RS-12M2 (Topol-M)	60	1997	1 x 800	60
SS-27 Mod 2 (mobile)	RS-24 (Yars)	171	2010	4 x 100? (MIRV)	684^e
SS-27 Mod 2 (silo)	RS-24 (Yars)^f	22	2014	4 x 100? (MIRV)	88
SS-29 (silo)	RS-28 (Sarmat)	–	(2024)	10 x 500? (MIRV)	-
?	? (Sirena-M)	9	2022	Command and control module	-
Subtotal		321			1,197^g
SLBMs
SS-N-23 M2/3	RSM-54 (Sineva/Layner)	5/80	2007	4 x 100 (MIRV)^h	320^i
SS-N-32	RSM-56 (Bulava)	6/80	2014	6 x 100 (MIRV)	576^j
Subtotal		11/176^k			896^l
Bombers/weapons
Bear-H6/16	Tu-95MS6/MS16/MSM	55	1984/2015	6–16 x AS-15A ALCMs	448
				or 14 x AS-23B ALCMs
Blackjack	Tu-160/M	13	1987/2021	12 x AS-15B ALCMs	132
				or AS-23B ALCMs, bombs
Subtotal		68^m			580^n
Subtotal strategic offensive forces		567^o			2,673^p
Nonstrategic and defensive weapons
Naval
Submarines/surface ships/air				LACMs, SLCMs, ASWs, SAMs, DBs, torpedoes	835
Land-based air
Bombers/fighters (Tu-22M3(M3M)/Su-24M/Su-34/MiG-31K)		266	1974–2018	ASMs, ALBMs, bombs	506
ABM/Air/Coastal defense
S-300/S-400 (SA-20/SA-21)		750	1992/2007	1 x low	290
53T6 Gazelle		68	1986	1 x 10	68^q
SSC-1B Sepal (Redut)		8^r	1973	1 x 350	4
SSC-5 Stooge (SS-N-26) (K-300P/3M–55)		56	2015	(1 x 10)^s	23
Ground-based
SS-26 Stone SSM (9K720, Iskander-M),		150	2005	1 x 10–100	70^t
SSC-7 Southpaw GLCM (R-500/9M728, Iskander-M)^u
SSC-8 Screwdriver GLCM (9M729)^v		20^w	2017	1 x 10–100	20
Subtotal nonstrategic and defensive forces					1,816^x
TOTAL					4,489
Deployed					1,674
Reserve					2,815
Retired warheads awaiting dismantlement					1,400
Total inventory					5,889

Abbreviations used: ABM = antiballistic missile; ALCM = air-launched cruise missile; AS = air-to-surface; ASM = air-to-surface missile; ASW = antisubmarine weapon; DB = depth bomb; GLCM = ground-launched cruise missile; ICBM = intercontinental ballistic missile; LACM = land-attack cruise missile; MIRV = multiple independently targetable reentry vehicle; SAM = surface-to-air missile; SLBM = submarine-launched ballistic missile; SLCM = sea-launched cruise missile; SSM = surface-to-surface missile.

^aAll warhead numbers come with considerable uncertainty because of the limited transparency of Russian nuclear-capable forces. The numbers for nonstrategic nuclear weapons are particularly uncertain.

^bIt is estimated that the SS-18s now carry only five warheads each to meet the New START limit for deployed strategic warheads. It is also possible that a fourth regiment at Dombarovsky is operational.

^cIt is thought that all SS-19 ICBMs have been retired, although activities continue at some former regiments.

^dAlthough the final division at Vypolzovo had not yet completed its upgrade to the SS-27 Mod 2 by March 2023, it is believed that its legacy SS-25 missiles had been removed in preparation for the upgrade.

^eIt is estimated that the SS-27 Mod 2s now carry only three warheads each to meet the New START limit on deployed strategic warheads.

^fIt appears that there are multiple variants of the Yars system: one of which (known as Yars-S) is reportedly equipped with more powerful, medium-yield warheads for use against hardened targets, and another (known as Yars-M) is equipped with more capable penetration aids to circumvent missile defenses.

^gOnly about 834 of these warheads are believed to be deployed. The rest are in storage for potential loading.

^hThe current version of the RSM-54 SLBM might be the Layner (SS-N-23 M3), a variant of the previous version—the Sineva (SS-N-23 M2). However, the US Air Force’s National Air and Space Intelligence Center (NASIC) did not include the Layner in its 2020 report on ballistic and cruise missile threats, and there is some uncertainty regarding its status and capability. In 2006 US intelligence estimated that the missile could carry up to 10 warheads, but it lowered the estimate to 4 in 2009. The average number of warheads carried on each missile has probably been limited to 4 multiple independently targetable reentry vehicles (MIRVs) to meet the New START limits.

ⁱAt any given time, only 256 of these warheads are deployed on four operational Delta IV submarines, with the fifth boat in overhaul. Often two boats are out.

^jIt is possible that Bulava SLBMs now carry only four warheads each for Russia to meet the New START limit on deployed strategic warheads.

^kThe first figure is the number of operational SSBNs; the second is the total number of missiles (launchers) on the SSBNs. Note that several SSBNs may be in overhaul at any given time.

^lAt any given time, one or two SSBNs are in overhaul and do not carry nuclear weapons, so not all 896 warheads are deployed—perhaps only around 640.

^mOnly about 55 of the bombers are thought to be deployed.

ⁿThe total bomber force can theoretically carry more than 800 nuclear weapons, but weapons are probably only assigned to deployed bombers. Bomber weapons are not deployed on the aircraft under normal circumstances, but we estimate a couple hundred weapons are present at the two bomber bases, with the remainder in central storage.

^oThis number of total fielded strategic launchers is higher than those listed in the New START aggregate data as of September 1, 2022, because some bombers are not counted as deployed. This is the total number of operational launchers (ICBMs, SLBMs, and bombers) in service. Russia also has more than 250 non-deployed launchers, many of which are mothballed or in the process of being dismantled.

^pOnly about 1,674 of these warheads are estimated to be deployed on missiles and at bomber bases. New START counts fewer deployed warheads because it does not count weapons in storage and because at any given time, some SSBNs are not fully loaded.

^qWe estimate that the warheads for the remaining Gazelle interceptors are kept in central storage under normal circumstances. All previous 32 Gorgon missiles have been retired.

^rIt is assumed that all SSC-1B units, except a single silo-based version in Crimea, have been replaced by the K-300P by now.

^sThe US National Air and Space Intelligence Center lists the ground-, sea-, and sub-launched 3M55 as “nuclear possible.”

^tThis estimate includes warheads for both SS-26 and SSC-7.

^uThe US National Air and Space Intelligence Center lists the R-500/9M728 as “Conventional, Nuclear Possible.”

^vIt is possible that SSC-8 launchers are co-located with some of the Iskander brigades.

^wThis figure assumes five SSC-8 battalions, each with four launchers, for a total of 80 missiles. It is assumed there is at least one reload for at least 160 missiles.

^xAll nonstrategic warheads are thought to be in central storage. The 1,816 listed make up the estimated nominal load for nuclear-capable delivery platforms, although not necessarily all launchers of a dual-capable weapon system are assigned nuclear warheads. It is possible there are more unreported nuclear-capable non-strategic systems.

Table 2. Estimated status of Russian ICBM forces, 2023.

Locations	Divisions	Regiments (Coordinates)	Launchers*	Status
Barnaul	35^th MD	307^th MR (53.3128, 84.5080)	9 SS-27 Mod 2 TEL^a	Active
		479^th GMR (53.7709, 83.9580)	9 SS-27 Mod 2 TEL	Active
		480^th MR (53.3054, 84.1459)	9 SS-27 Mod 2 TEL	Active
		867^th GMR (53.2255, 84.6706)	9 SS-27 Mod 2 TEL	Active
Dombarovsky	13^th MD^b	368^th MR (51.0934, 59.8446)	(6 SS-19 Mod 4 silos)	Upgrading, 1 silos completed^c
		494^th MR (51.0628, 60.2119)	6 SS-18 silos	Active
		621^st MR (51.0618, 59.6081)	6 SS-19 Mod 4 silos	Active
		767^th MR (51.2411, 60.6069)	6 SS-18 silos	Active
Irkutsk	29^th GMD	92^nd GMR (52.5085, 104.3933)	9 SS-27 Mod 2 TEL	Active
		344^th GMR (52.6694, 104.5199)	9 SS-27 Mod 2 TEL	Active
		586^th GMR (52.5505, 104.1584)	9 SS-27 Mod 2 TEL	Active
Kozelsk	28^th GMD	74^th MR (53.7982, 35.8039)	10 SS-27 Mod 2 silos	Active
		168^th MR (54.0278, 35.4589)	10 SS-27 Mod 2 silos	Active
		214^th MR (53.7641, 35.4866)	(10 SS-27 Mod 2 silos)	Upgrading, 2 silos completed
Novosibirsk	39^th GMD	357^th GMR (55.3270, 82.9417)	9 SS-27 Mod 2 TEL	Active
		382^nd GMR (55.3181, 83.1676)	9 SS-27 Mod 2 TEL	Active
		428^th GMR (55.3134, 83.0291)	9 SS-27 Mod 2 TEL	Active
Nizhny Tagil	42^nd MD	308^th MR (58.2298, 60.6773)	9 SS-27 Mod 2 TEL	Active
		433^rd MR (58.1015, 60.3592)	9 SS-27 Mod 2 TEL	Active
		804^th MR (58.1372, 60.5366)	9 SS-27 Mod 2 TEL	Active
Tatishchevo	60^th MD^d	31^st MR (51.8792, 45.3368)	10 SS-27 Mod 1 silos	Active
		104^th MR (51.6108, 45.4970)	10 SS-27 Mod 1 silos	Active
		122^nd MR (52.1589, 45.6404)	10 SS-27 Mod 1 silos	Active
		165^th MR (51.8062, 45.6550)	10 SS-27 Mod 1 silos	Active
		322^nd MR (52.0449, 45.4458)	10 SS-27 Mod 1 silos	Active
		626^th MR (51.7146, 45.2278)	10 SS-27 Mod 1 silos	Active
Teykovo	54^th GMD	235^th GMR (56.7041, 40.4403)	9 SS-27 Mod 1 TEL	Active
		285^th GMR (56.8091, 40.1710)	9 SS-27 Mod 2 TEL	Active
		321^st MR (56.9324, 40.5440)	9 SS-27 Mod 1 TEL	Active
		773^rd MR (56.9167, 40.3087)	9 SS-27 Mod 2 TEL	Active
Uzhur^e	62^nd MD	229^th MR (55.2453, 89.9194)	6 SS-18 silos	Active
		269^th MR (55.2077, 90.2526)	6 SS-18 silos	Active
		302^nd MR (55.1147, 89.6311)	(6 SS-29 silos)	Upgrading
		735^th MR (55.2720, 89.5783)	10 SS-18 silos	Active
Vypolsovo	7^th GMD	41^st MR (57.8620, 33.6500)	(9 SS-27 Mod 2 TEL)	Upgrading^f
		510^th GMR (57.7889, 33.8660)	(9 SS-27 Mod 2 TEL)	Upgrading
Yoshkar-Ola	14^th MD	290^th MR (56.8328, 48.2370)^g	9 SS-27 Mod 2 TEL	Active
		697^th MR (56.5601, 48.2144)	9 SS-27 Mod 2 TEL	Active
		779^th MR (56.5821, 48.1550)^h	9 SS-27 Mod 2 TEL	Active
11 Nuclear ICBM Divisions		39 regiments	312 ICBMs^i
Yurya	8th MD	76th MR (59.21946, 49.4256)	9 Sirena-M/SS-27 Mod 2 TEL^j	Active; non-nuclear
12 Total ICBM Divisions		40 regiments	321 ICBMs

Abbreviations used: GMD = Guards Missile Division; GMR = Guards Missile Regiment; MD = Missile Division; MR = Missile Regiment; TEL = Transporter Erector Launcher; () = currently being upgraded.

*Uses US/NATO missile designations. SS-18 (RS-20V), SS-19 (RS-18), SS-25 (Topol), SS-27 Mod 1 (Topol-M), SS-27 Mod 2 (RS-24 Yars), SS-29 (RS-28 Sarmat).

^aIt appears that there are multiple variants of the Yars system: one of which (known as Yars-S) is reportedly equipped with more powerful, medium-yield warheads for use against hardened targets, and another (known as Yars-M) is equipped with more capable penetration aids to circumvent missile defenses.

^bIt is possible that the 175th Missile Regiment (51.2708, 60.2992) is also active, but it is not thought to be armed.

^cThe first full regiment with six silos was completed in late-2021, although some construction is still visible. The upgrade of a second regiment has begun for a total of 12 silos (two regiments) to be operational by 2027. The first missile of the second regiment was loaded into its silo in December 2022.

^dIt is possible that one or two SS-19 regiments are active, but they are not thought to be armed. They are potential candidates for an upgrade to the SS-19 Mod 4 (Avangard) in the future.

^eThe 62nd MD at Uzhur is scheduled to receive the SS-29 (Sarmat) in the near future, although there have been significant delays. Some former SS-18 silos will also be converted to the SS-19 Mod 4 (Avangard).

^fAlthough the final division at Vypolzovo had not yet completed its upgrade to the SS-27 Mod 2 by March 2023, it is believed that its legacy SS-25 missiles had been removed in preparation for the upgrade.

^gIt is potentially possible that the 290th regiment will move south to the new garrison (56.5658, 48.4515) that is nearly completed closer to the supply base and other garrisons of the division.

^hThe 779 MR garrison is being rebuilt. Until completion, the launchers and support vehicles are temporarily based near the supply base (56.5587, 48.0558).

ⁱUpgrading regiments sometimes go on experimental combat alert with only a few launchers ready.

^jA 12th division at Yurya has recently upgraded to the Sirena-M system, which is based on the SS-27 Mod 2. It does not carry warheads but serves as a back-up ICBM launch code transmitter.

Figure 1. Upgrade from the SS-18 to the SS-29 ICBM at the Uzhur missile field.

Figure 2. Russian Pacific Fleet infrastructure in Kamchatka.

Figure 3. Movement of Tu-160 Blackjacks from Engels to Belaya bases between November 2022 and January 2023.

Figure 4. Comparison of garrisons housing the Iskander SRBM.