The Renewal of the Socialist Majority: The 2009 Portuguese Legislative Elections

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Notes

For the most recent Portuguese election report in this journal, see Freire and Lobo (2006); for other recent reports on other countries in this series see Luther (2009), Wilson (2009) and Dinas (2010).

After the presidential elections Alegre created a movement called Movimento de Intervenção e Cidadania (Intervention and Citizenship Movement, MIC) which aimed to mobilise civil society and to rally left-wing voters disillusioned with Sócrates government. In 2008 he also formed a tendency inside the party called Opinião Socialista (Socialist Opinion).

The rate of unemployment increased from 7.7 per cent in 2005 to 9.1 per cent in 2009, while the GDP decreased from 2.0 per cent in 2007 to 0.1 per cent in 2009. Data from the National Institute of Statistics (Instituto Nacional de Estatística (INE), www.ine.pt).

This led to an important government reshuffle which took place in January 2008, with the inclusion in the socialist government of some figures close to Alegre (Expresso, 2 February 2008).

Data from Marktest barometer (http://www.marktest.com/wap/a/p/m∼200909/id∼e9.aspx).

See the document Compromisso de Verdade (Compromise of truth, http://www.politica deverdade.com/?ide=1200).

The main slogans adopted by the BE and the PCP during the campaign were ‘Justiça na economia’ (Fairness in the economy) and ‘Soluç[otilde]es para uma vida melhor’ (Solutions for a better life), respectively.

After strenuous negotiations between the main parties and the media over the format of TV debates, a series of 12 face-to-face debates occurred during the first two weeks of September.

Since 1987 the PCP has run for national elections in coalition with the green party (PEV) under the label CDU (Unitary Democratic Coalition).

The increase in the abstention rate may depend, at least partially, on the new rules for registration which affected mostly young people who are traditionally more likely to abstain.

It is interesting to notice that the number of parties which contested the election substantially increased, with two completely new parties –Movimento Esperança Portugal (Hope for Portugal Movement, MEP) and Movimento Mérito e Sociedade (Merit and Society Movement, MMS). The vote share obtained by ‘other parties’ went from 1.6 per cent in the 2005 elections to 3.1 per cent in 2009.

The data are calculated by using the formula proposed by Laakso and Taagepera (1979).

Volatility scores are calculated according to Bartolini and Mair (1990).