What Sort of Semi-presidentialism do Finns Want? An Intra-systemic Comparative Analysis

Abstract

Against the backdrop of moves by the political establishment, endorsed by political scientists, to shift towards a purely ceremonial presidency, this paper uses recent survey data to assess levels of popular support – and the socio-demographic structure of support – for two different types of semi-presidentialism in Finland. It represents an exercise in intra-country comparison – comparing public support for a return to the significant powers the head of state possessed under the 1919 constitution (Duverger-style semi-presidentialism) with backing for the more limited presidential prerogatives enshrined in the 2000 constitution (status quo semi-presidentialism). Correlation and multiple regression analysis of complementary data-sets led to two main findings. The vast majority of Finns seem content with the current limited powers of the president – status quo presidentialism – whilst among the minority that would apparently prefer a return to Duverger-style semi-presidentialism, there is a disproportionate number of persons with relatively low levels of formal education, low social status and predominantly left-wing party political persuasion.

Notes

1. ‘Ei siitä mitään tule’, Helsingin Sanomat, 20 December 2008.

2. On the role of the president in nominating ‘caretaker cabinets’ in semi-presidential regimes, see Schleiter and Morgan-Jones (2009b: 871–92).

3. ‘Kokoomuksen presidenttitoivot nihkeinä’, Helsingin Sanomat, 21 October 2009.

4. ‘Vasemmisto haraa vastaan presidentin vallan purkamisessa’, Helsingin Sanomat, 24 November 2009.

5. The chair of the Eduskunta's Foreign Affairs Committee has emphasised the same point. Perrti Salolainen, ‘Tieto ulkopolitiikasta ei kulje eduskuntaan’, Helsingin Sanomat, 18 January 2010.

6. On this point, see Aulis Pöyhönen, ‘Turhat ja turhauttavat presidentinvaalit pitäisi lakkauttaa’, Helsingin Sanomat, 3 July 2009.

7. See, for example, ‘Perustuslain uudistus vie Suomea uuteen aikaan’, Helsingin Sanomat, 17 July 2009.

8. The former Green minister, Osmo Soininvaara, has advocated the abolition of the presidency. ‘Presidenttiä ei tarvita!’, Iltalehti, 16 November 2009.

9. Tuija Brax (Greens), the minister of justice, has proposed removing the office of Supreme Commander of the Defence Forces from the president's portfolio. Jyrki Katainen (Conservatives), the minister of finance, stated that the compromise agreed between the former prime minister Paavo Lipponen and the former president Martti Ahtisaari (1994–2000) has facilitated the strictly unconstitutional practice of the president (in addition to the prime minister) regularly attending EU summit meetings.

10. ‘Oikeusministeri Brax: Pääministerin asema EU:ssa vahvistuu’, Helsingin Sanomat, 29 November 2009.

11. ‘Suomi palaa parlamentarismiin’, Iltalehti, 16 November 2009.

12. Unto Hämäläinen, ‘Yksi monista’, Helsingin Sanomat Kuukaisiliite, Syyskuu 2009, 33–41.

13. ‘Halonen tarraa yhä lautaaseensa’, Helsingin Sanomat, 3 December 2009.

14. Timo Soini, ‘Tasavallan presidentin valtaoikeudet kohdallaan’, Helsingin Sanomat, 21 December 2009.

15. See, for example, Johannes Koskinen, ‘Presidenttiä ei pidä riisua vallasta’, Helsingin Sanomat, 10 November 2009.

16. For a selection, see Aarne Ylinen, ‘Vanhasen seuraajasta voisi päättää presidentti’, Helsingin Sanomat, 29 December 2009; Juhana Siljander, ‘Hallitus polkee presidentin perustuslaillisia oikeuksia perin oudosti’, Helsingin Sanomat, 15 December 2009; Eero Laaksonen, ‘Kaipaan Urho Kekkosen aikaa takaisin’, Helsingin Sanomat, 25 September 2009; Minna Markkula, ‘Vahva presidentti tasapainottaa pääministerin valtaa’, Helsingin Sanomat, 17 November 2009; Esko Järvenpää, ‘Presidentti on kansan valitsema’, Iltalehti, 4 December 2009.

17. Kauko Tuovinen, ‘Missä on todellinen kansanvalta’, Helsingin Sanomat, 20 December 2009.

18. Erkki Lod, ‘Parlamentarismin taustalla on puoluevalta’, Helsingin Sanomat, 11 December 2009; Raimo Pitkänen, ‘Pääministerin valtaa vähennettävä’, Helsingin Sanomat, 20 January 2010.

19. By no means all the letters to Helsingin Sanomat have backed the existing powers of the president. See, among others, Aarne Mattila, ‘Valtion päämiehelle on muodostettava uusi rooli’, Helsingin Sanomat, 30 November 2009; Matti Linnanahde, ‘Nykyiset presidentin valtaoikeudet murentavat eduskuntavvalien merkitystä’, Helsingin Sanomat, 10 December 2009.

20. Equally, 19 per cent of SMP supporters wanted to reduce the powers of the president. This is not surprising when it is noted that the party leader, Veikko Vennamo, was an arch-critic of president Kekkonen.

21. The survey question was: ‘Should the president's position in the political system be strengthened?’ 51 per cent agreed, 44 per cent disagreed and 5 per cent could not say. N = 941.

22. The ‘rainbow coalition’ between 1995 and 1999 comprised Social Democrats, Left Alliance, Swedish People's Party, Greens and Conservatives.

23. Two opinion polls, both conducted directly after the government's announcement that the president would no longer attend EU summit meetings, confirmed popular support for status quo semi-presidentialism. According to a Suomen Gallup poll for Helsingin Sanomat, which was based on 1,002 telephone interviews between 7 and 17 December 2009, 55 per cent of Finns opposed any further weakening of the president's federative powers (the figure among Social Democrats was 83 per cent). In a Taloustutkimus poll for the state broadcasting company YLE, based on 968 telephone interviews between 9 and 16 December 2009, no less than 80 per cent of Finns supported the present joint management of foreign policy. ‘Ennemistö vastustaa presidentin ulkopoliittisen vallan leikkamista’, Helsingin Sanomat, 19 December 2009; ‘Kansa tukee presidentin valtaa’, YLE Uutiset/yle.fi, 17 December 2009.