How has Radical Right Support Transformed Established Political Conflicts? The Case of Austria

Figures & data

Figure 1 ELECTION RESULTS IN AUSTRIA SINCE 1945

Figure 2 SUMMARY OF EXPECTATIONS

Figure 3 DISTRIBUTION OF SUPPORTERS: SOCIO-STRUCTURAL ATTRIBUTES

Figure 4 DISTRIBUTION OF SUPPORTERS: ECONOMIC IDEOLOGY, SOCIAL LIBERALISM, AND NEW POLITICAL CONFLICTS

Table 1. MULTINOMIAL LOGIT MODEL OF PARTY SUPPORT: SOCIO-STRUCTURAL FACTORS

	SPÖ vs. FPÖ	ÖVP vs. FPÖ	Greens vs. FPÖ
Occupation
White collar or civil servant	Reference category
Blue collar	–0.072 (0.288)	–0.823∗ (0.335)	0.461 (0.488)
Self-employed or farmer	–0.864^∗ (0.384)	0.684^∗ (0.341)	–0.072 (0.482)
Other	0.357 (0.350)	0.451 (0.366)	0.715^# (0.432)
Education
Compulsory schooling (or less)	–0.552 (0.380)	–1.415^∗∗∗ (0.404)	–3.186^∗∗∗ (0.589)
Lower secondary or vocational training	–0.503^# (0.293)	–0.983^∗∗∗ (0.298)	–2.441^∗∗∗ (0.374)
Upper secondary and higher	Reference category
Denomination / church service
Belong / regular service	Reference category
Belong / seldom service	–0.611^# (0.332)	–1.698^∗∗∗ (0.327)	–0.935^∗ (0.437)
No denomination	–1.041^∗∗ (0.363)	–2.711^∗∗∗ (0.387)	–0.611 (0.465)
Area
<= 5,000 inhabitants	0.632^∗ (0.276)	1.218^∗∗∗ (0.293)	0.638 (0.374)
<= 50,000 inhabitants	–0.198 (0.259)	–0.158 (0.290)	–0.191 (0.374)
> 50,000 inhabitants	Reference category
Controls
Gender (1 = male)	–0.140 (0.227)	0.024 (0.241)	–0.968^∗∗ (0.321)
Age	0.035^∗∗∗ (0.007)	0.036^∗∗∗ (0.007)	0.005 (0.010)
Migration background (1 = yes)	2.178^∗∗ (0.762)	2.308^∗∗ (0.790)	2.331^∗∗ (0.837)
Carinthia	–1.186^∗ (0.497)	–0.854^# (0.513)	–0.149 (0.645)
Intercept	–0.020 (0.528)	0.713 (0.540)	1.443^∗ (0.683)
Adj. Count R^2 = 0.29
n = 861

Note: Data from AUTNES (2009). The reference category is supporting the FPÖ. For coding of variables, see text.Standard errors in parentheses. ^#p < 0.10, ^∗p < 0.05, ^∗∗p < 0.01, ^∗∗∗p < 0.001.

Table 2. MULTINOMIAL LOGIT MODEL OF PARTY SUPPORT: FULL MODEL

	SPÖ vs. FPÖ	ÖVP vs. FPÖ	Greens vs. FPÖ
Occupation
White collar or civil servant	Reference category
Blue collar	0.172 (0.333)	–0.759^∗ (0.373)	1.174^∗ (0.553)
Self-employed or farmer	–0.935^∗ (0.426)	0.604 (0.382)	–0.637 (0.602)
Other	0.241 (0.387)	0.323 (0.400)	0.599 (0.515)
Education
Compulsory schooling (or less)	–0.135 (0.430)	–0.860^# (0.441)	–2.690^∗∗∗ (0.688)
Lower secondary or vocational training	0.024 (0.346)	–0.358 (0.343)	–1.598^∗∗∗ (0.459)
Upper secondary and higher	Reference category
Denomination / church service
Belong / regular service	Reference category
Belong / seldom service	–0.327 (0.359)	–1.253^∗∗∗ (0.353)	–0.769 (0.491)
No denomination	–0.978^∗ (0.404)	–2.331^∗∗∗ (0.426)	–1.134^∗ (0.550)
Area
<= 5,000 inhabitants	0.915^∗∗ (0.327)	1.557^∗∗∗ (0.339)	0.927^∗ (0.449)
<= 50,000 inhabitants	0.247 (0.306)	0.353 (0.332)	0.366 (0.458)
> 50,000 inhabitants	Reference category
Attitudes
Economic views (left-wing)	0.207^∗∗∗ (0.059)	0.057 (0.061)	0.165^# (0.088)
Social liberalism	–0.001 (0.052)	–0.118^∗ (0.054)	0.168^∗ (0.084)
Anti-immigrant views	–0.530^∗∗∗ (0.090)	–0.437^∗∗∗ (0.092)	–0.785^∗∗∗ (0.103)
Euroscepticism	–1.370^# (0.824)	–3.110^∗∗∗ (0.861)	–1.801 (1.137)
Political discontent	–2.910^∗∗∗ (0.800)	–1.436^# (0.833)	–0.108 (1.226)
Controls
Gender (1 = male)	–0.182 (0.260)	–0.052 (0.270)	–1.131^∗∗ (0.381)
Age	0.037^∗∗∗ (0.008)	0.036^∗∗∗ (0.008)	0.024^∗ (0.012)
Migration background (1 = yes)	1.402^# (0.805)	1.487^# (0.836)	1.604^# (0.912)
Carinthia	–1.291^∗ (0.548)	–0.694 (0.548)	0.137 (0.695)
Intercept	4.749^∗∗∗ (1.046)	6.731^∗∗∗ (1.073)	4.913^∗ (1.412)
Adj. Count R^2 = 0.39
n = 834

Note: Data from AUTNES (2009). The reference category is supporting the FPÖ. For coding of variables, see text.Standard errors in parentheses. ^#p < 0.10, ^∗p < 0.05, ^∗∗p < 0.01, ^∗∗∗p < 0.001.

Figure 5 PREDICTED PROBABILITIES BASED ON MULTINOMIAL LOGIT MODEL

Table

	AntImm	Econ	SocLib
Immigration to Austria should be significantly curbed.	0.66	0.04	–0.01
The state should be tougher toward asylum seekers.	0.67	–0.03	0.03
The financial crisis shows that a market economy does not work.	0.14	0.57	0.09
A market economy can only function with strong state regulations in place.	0.00	0.59	0.06
The current level of social policies should be maintained, even if this means a rise in taxes.	–0.13	0.56	–0.18
Same sex marriages should be legally recognised.	–0.23	0.05	0.62
Women should be able to decide for themselves whether they want to have an abortion or not.	0.13	–0.02	0.75

Long, J.Scott, and Jeremy Freese (2006). Regression Models for Categorical Dependent Variables using Stata. College Station, TX: Stata Press.

 Google Scholar