The moderating role of identification and campaign exposure in party cueing effects

Figures & data

Table 1. Intercept-only model explaining support for Turkey’s EU membership.

Intercept	2.108*** (0.109)
Variance of random components
Individual	3.414***
Party	0.221***
Country	0.208***
−2 log likelihood	85,276.356

Note: Entry is ML coefficient with standard error in parentheses. N_individual = 20,893; N_party = 142; N_country = 21.

*** p < 0.001

** p < 0.01

* p < 0.05

+ p < 0.1.

Table 2. Multilevel models explaining support for Turkey’s EU membership.

	1	2	3	4	5
Vote certainty	0.010 (0.008)	−0.101*** (0.027)	0.009 (0.008)	−0.095*** (0.028)	−0.042 (0.047)
Campaign exposure	0.010 (0.010)	0.010 (0.010)	−0.061* (0.030)	−0.049+ (0.03)	0.055 (0.079)
Party cue	0.236*** (0.025)	0.123*** (0.037)	0.197*** (0.03)	0.097** (0.039)	0.160** (0.054)
Vote certainty * party cue		0.026*** (0.006)		0.025*** (0.006)	0.010 (0.011)
Campaign exposure * party cue			0.017** (0.007)	0.014* (0.007)	−0.015 (0.018)
Vote certainty * campaign exposure					−0.023+ (0.017)
Vote certainty * campaign exposure * party cue					0.006* (0.004)
Variance of random components
Individual	3.339***	3.336***	3.338***	3.336***	3.335***
Party	0.128***	0.128***	0.130***	0.130***	0.130***
Country	0.159**	0.157**	0.157**	0.156**	0.157**
−2 log likelihood	84,760.834	84,743.024	84,754.562	84,738.838	84,735.750

Note: Entries are ML coefficients with standard errors in parentheses. The control variables are included in the analysis, but not shown in the table. N_individual = 20,893; N_party = 142; N_country = 21.

*** p < 0.001

** p < 0.01

* p < 0.05

+ p < 0.1.

Figure 1. Marginal effect of party cue for different values of vote certainty, with 90% confidence interval.

Figure 2. Marginal effect of party cue for different values of campaign exposure, with 90% confidence interval.

Figure 3. Marginal effect of party cue. The different lines represent different values of vote certainty: the darker the line, the higher vote certainty. Values of campaign exposure vary across the horizontal axis.

Figure 4. Marginal effect of party cue. The solid black line represents the marginal effect of party cue with vote certainty one SD above the mean; the grey line represents the marginal effect of party cue with vote certainty one SD below the mean. Campaign exposure varies across the horizontal axis. The dashed lines represent the 90% confidence interval.