Divided but united: explaining nested public support for European integration

Abstract

Academic and general interest in public support for European Integration is on the rise. Theoretically, the utilitarian, identity, reference, cue-taking and signalling models have been developed to explain this perplexing phenomenon. While these models have been tested, there is no comprehensive up-to-date account of how well they perform separately, relative to each other and across levels. Empirically, this study utilises a data set with 110,873 respondents from the European Social Survey. Methodologically, a multilevel model is used to address causal heterogeneity between levels. The study shows that ‘attitudes towards multiculturalism’ at the individual level and ‘corruption’ at the country level are the strongest predictors. When interacting levels within models, it is demonstrated that individual trust in the national political establishment is being moderated by the level of corruption in a country in influencing support for European integration. On this basis, two models are proposed, named the ‘saviour model’ and the ‘anti-establishment model’.

Keywords:

• Anti-establishment
• Euroscepticism
• European integration
• European Union
• public opinion
• identity

Acknowledgements

This article has greatly benefited from comments from several people to whom we would like to express our deepest gratitude. First, different versions of the paper have been presented at the Globalization and Europeanization Research Group, the Roskilde School of Governance, the Department of Business and Politics and the Danish Association for European Studies, where the participants provided helpful feedback. Second, we have received detailed valuable suggestions from Susana Borras, Manuele Citi, Katjana Gattermann, Holly Snaith and David Willumsen. Third, the reviewers and editor Anand Menon made the review process highly rewarding in terms of advancing the article. The standard disclaimer applies.

Data availability

The data used in this paper is described in section ‘Data and methods’. The replication data and syntax that support the findings of this study has been stored on https://dataverse.harvard.edu/ at doi: 10.7910/DVN/MLPBT7. As the data set has been created by merging and sometimes recoding existing data sets the original sources should be credited in case of use.

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the authors.

Notes on contributors

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Additional information

Notes on contributors

Anders Ejrnæs

Anders Ejrnæs is an Associate Professor in Social Science in the Department of Social Sciences and Business, Roskilde University. His most recent work has focused on comparative analysis of political engagement, well-being and happiness and work‒life balance across European states. He is currently working on explaining public support for the EU. He has published in journals including Comparative European Politics, European Politics and Society, European Societies and European Union Politics. [[email protected]]

Mads Dagnis Jensen

Mads Dagnis Jensen is an Associate Professor at the Department of International Economics, Government and Business at Copenhagen Business School. His most recent work has focused on coordination in core executives; public support for European Integration; and algorithmic and behavioural public policy. He has published in journals including Journal of Common Market Studies, Journal of European Public Policy, Public Administration and West European Politics. [[email protected]]