Beliefs of political leaders: conditions for change in the Eurozone crisis

Figures & data

Table 1. Taxonomy of belief change.

Subject	Degree
	Moving	Alteration	Consistent
Dimension	Dimension reduces or reinforces at the expense of others	Dimension vanishes or dominates belief system at the expense of others	Same ratio of dimension(s) governs the belief system
Core	New beliefs or alternative beliefs enter existing dimension but do not completely alter its core meaning	Dominant core meaning of the content of a belief dimension changes	Same beliefs continue to govern a given belief dimension

Table 2. Overview of selected political leaders and time in office.

HSG	Country	Time in office^*	VOC	MS type	Ideology^**	Dissensus
Lars Løkke Rasmussen	Denmark	04-2009/10-2011	Supply	NE	1	No increase
Helle Thorning- Schmidt	Denmark	10-2011/06-2015	Supply	NE	4	Slight increase
Nicolas Sarkozy	France	05-2007/05-2012	Demand	E	1	Increase
Angela Merkel (2 phases)	Germany	11-2005/current	Supply	E	1; 2	Slight increase (1); slight decrease (2)
Viktor Orbán	Hungary	05-2010/current	Hybrid	NE	1	No increase
Enda Kenny	Ireland	03-2011/06-2017	Demand	E	2	No increase
Brian Cowen	Ireland	07-2008/03-2011	Demand	E	2	Increase
Mario Monti	Italy	11-2011/04-2013	Demand	E	0	Increase
Mariano Rajoy	Spain	12-2011/06-2018	Demand	E	1	Increase
José Luis Rodriguez Zapatero	Spain	04-2008/12-2011	Demand	E	5	Increase
Mark Rutte	The Netherlands	10-2010/current	Supply	E	2-3	Increase
David Cameron	United Kingdom	05-2010/07-2016	Hybrid	NE	1	No increase

* Data retrieved from Comparative Political Data Set (Armingeon et al. 2018a).

** 1 = hegemonic right-wing and centre parties; 2 = dominance right-wing and centre parties; 3 = balance of power left‒right; 4 = dominance social democratic and other left; 5 = hegemony social democratic and other left; 0 = non-ideological – technocratic.

Table 3. Threshold set membership scores (calibration).

Condition	Threshold fully in set	Crossover point	Threshold fully out set
DT	90%	75%	60%
UNI	3.1%	0.4%	‒2.2%
GD	1.5	0.95	0.4
EI	8.9%	4.04%	‒0.88%

Table 4. Belief changes of political leaders.

Subject	Degree
	Moving	Alteration	Consistent
Dimension (saliency)	Thorning-Schmidt; Sarkozy; Merkel2_3; Monti; Rajoy		Rasmussen; Merkel1_2; Orban; Cowen; Kenny; Zapatero; Rutte; Cameron
Core (meaning)	Kenny; Zapatero; Cameron; Monti	Rajoy; Rutte; Sarkozy	Rasmussen; Thorning-Schmidt; Merkel1_2; Merkel2_3; Orban; Cowen

Figure 1. XY plot for parsimonious solution outcome: economic belief change.

Figure 2. XY plot for parsimonious solution outcome: Keynesian/ordoliberal belief change.

Armingeon, Klaus, Virginia Wenger, Fiona Wiedemeier, Christian Isler, Laura Knöpfel, David Weisstanner and Sarah Engler (2018a). Comparative Political Data Set 1960-2015 [Dataset], available at http://www.cpds-data.org (accessed 4 June 2018).

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