Taking it personal or national? Understanding the indirect effects of economic news on government support

Figures & data

Figure 1. Conceptual model.

Table 1. Media data per outlet per wave.

Source	Published before wave 2	Published before wave 3	Total (n)
Newspaper articles	2,377	2,062	4,439
Online articles	373	384	757
Television news items	214	220	434
Total (n)	2,964	2,666	5,630

Table 2. Explaining economic evaluations.

	National economic evaluations	Personal economic evaluations
	b (SE)	b (SE)
Constant	1.844*** (.113)	1.616*** (.107)
Lagged dependent variable	.581*** (.013)	.641***(.011)
Government support (t-1)	.105*** (.008)	.061*** (.006)
Female	−.105*** (.025)	−.016 (.021)
Age	.003** (.001)	−.005*** (.001)
Education	.010 (.008)	.003 (.007)
Positive experiences	.021 (.073)	.306*** (.074)
Negative experiences	−.108 (.092)	−.323*** (.071)
Financial problems	−.165*** (.028)	−.268*** (.026)
Left-right positioning	−.011 (.006)	−.006 (.005)
Tone economic news (t-1)	.003** (.001)	−.000 (.001)
Media exposure (Wave 1)	−.011 (.008)	−.007 (.007)
Wave	−.066** (.027)	.064* (.025)
R^2	.526	.552
N	6480	6480

Table 3. Explaining government support.

	Government support	Government support
	b (SE)	b (SE)
Constant	.900*** (.119)	.343** (.131)
Lagged dependent variable	.751*** (.008)	.687*** (.010)
Female	.041 (.025)	.084** (.025)
Age	.001 (.001)	.001 (.001)
Education	.029*** (.008)	.015 (.008)
Left-right positioning	.034*** (.007)	.035*** (.006)
Positive experiences	.074 (.081)	.087 (.076)
Negative experiences	−.192* (.090)	−.156 (.088)
Financial problems	−.229*** (.030)	−.143*** (.031)
Tone economic news (t-1)	.003** (.001)	.003** (.001)
Media exposure (Wave 1)	−.031*** (.009)	−.028** (.009)
National economic evaluations (t-1)		.137*** (.013)
Personal economic evaluations (t-1)		.061*** (.013)
Wave	.090* (.033)	.044 (.033)
R^2	.673	.683
n	6480	6540

Table 4. Descriptive statistics per condition.

Condition (N)	Tone	National evaluations (M, SD)	Personal evaluations (M, SD)	Government support (M, SD)
1. (N = 735)	Negative	6.76 (1.41)	5.71 (1.33)	5.91 (2.12)
2. (N = 717)	Positive	7.08 (1.28)	5.77 (1.22)	5.95 (2.09)

Figure 2. SEM Model.

Table 5. Maximum likelihood estimates.

Hypothesis	Independent variable	Dependent variable	B	S.E.	P
1	Negative news	Government support	.188	.094	.046
2	Negative news	National evaluations	−.318	.071	***
2	Negative news	Personal evaluations	−.063	.067	.343
4	National evaluations	Government support	.639	.038	***
4	Personal evaluations	Government support	.349	.040	***

Note: Values are unstandardized coefficients and standard errors.

* p <.05;

** p<.01;

*** p<.001.

Table 6. Indirect effects of economic news (tone) on government support.

Parameter	b	Lower	Upper	P
Indirect effect negative news via personal evaluations	−.022	−.072	.021	.310
Indirect effect negative news via national evaluations	−.203	−.300	−.117	.000

Note: Values are unstandardized coefficients and standard errors.

* p <.05;

** p<.01;

*** p<.001.