The formalisation of minority governments

Figures & data

Table 1. Summary of theoretical arguments.

	Substantive Min. Gov.	Formal Min. Gov.	Maj. Coal.
Eff. number of parl. parties (H1)	+	()	−
Polarisation (H2)	−	+	−
Median party (H3)	+	−	−
Size largest party (H4)	+	+/−	−
Ethno-regional party (H5)	Not appl.	+	−
Positive parliamentarism (H6)	−	+	+
Bicameralism (H7)	−	+	+

Figure 1. Cabinet types per decade.

Table 2. Cabinet types (multinomial).

Categories	Minority cabinet w/o majority support (baseline)	Minority cabinet w/ majority support		Majority coalition cabinet
Explanatory variables
Eff. number of parl.		−0.413		−0.767**
parties		(0.393)		(0.346)
Polarisation		−0.002		0.003
		(0.028)		(0.021)
Bicameralism		0.031		0.262
		(0.382)		(0.324)
Pos.		1.272***		0.676**
parliamentarism		(0.340)		(0.289)
Median party in cab.		0.166		1.625***
		(0.395)		(0.308)
Seat share largest		−0.551***		−0.483***
party		(0.182)		(0.153)
Seat share largest		0.006***		0.004***
party (sq)		(0.002)		(0.002)
Control variables
Minority experience		0.006		−0.031***
		(0.007)		(0.007)
Post-election		0.557		0.735**
cabinet		(0.387)		(0.356)
1980s		13.946***		0.565
		(0.719)		(0.620)
1990s		15.235***		0.906**
		(0.474)		(0.423)
2000s		15.294***		0.886**
		(0.563)		(0.371)
2010s		15.803***		1.094**
		(0.501)		(0.453)
Constant		−4.237		13.600***
		(5.085)		(4.731)
Observations		469		469

***p ≤ 0.01,**p ≤ 0.05,*p ≤ 0.10; Clustered standard errors in parentheses; 1970s is the reference category.

Figure 2. Average marginal effects (with 95% CIs).

Figure 3. The influence of the seat share of the largest party.

Table 3. The effect of ethno-regional parties.

DV: Formal Minority Cabinet	Main model
Explanatory variables
Ethno-regional party	0.969*
	(0.494)
Eff. number of parl. parties	0.340
	(0.381)
Polarisation	0.010
	(0.034)
Bicameralism	−0.345
	(0.439)
Pos. parliamentarism	0.394
	(0.513)
Median party in cab.	−1.574***
	(0.389)
Seat share largest party	−0.067
	(0.174)
Seat share largest party (sq)	0.002
	(0.002)
Control variables
Minority experience	0.036***
	(0.010)
Post-election cabinet	−0.169
	(0.402)
1990s	0.565
	(0.754)
2000s	0.457
	(0.832)
2010s	0.839
	(0.717)
Constant	−4.574
	(5.274)
Observations	314

***p ≤ 0.01,**p ≤ 0.05,*p ≤ 0.10; Clustered standard errors in parentheses; 1980s is the reference category.