Have your cake and eat it, too? Switzerland and the feasibility of differentiated integration after Brexit

Figures & data

Figure 1. Media coverage of Brexit in Switzerland.

Note: Monthly number of articles mentioning ‘Brexit’ or ‘Brexit’ and ‘Switzerland’/‘Swiss’ (in German and French) in the six following Swiss newspapers: Blick, Neue Zürcher Zeitung, Tages-Anzeiger, Weltwoche, Le Temps, 24 Heures. The vertical lines indicate the timing of our survey waves.

Figure 2. Timeline of survey waves.

Figure 3. Expected consequences of non-cooperation.

Figure 4. Brexit evaluations.

Figure 5. Preferences on Swiss-EU relations.

Figure 6. Brexit evaluations and expectations.

Figure 7. Brexit evaluations and vote intentions.

Table 1. Changes in vote on limitation initiative and changes in expected EU accommodation (October/November 2019–September 2020).

	Change in vote intention for Limitation initiative (waves 1–2)
Change in expected EU accommodation	Cooperative shift from yes to no	Unchanged	Non-cooperative shift from no to yes	Total
Less accommodative	36.1 %	20.2 %	9.1 %	20.8 %
	(35)	(268)	(5)	(308)
Unchanged	53.6 %	64.5 %	54.5 %	63.4 %
	(52)	(857)	(30)	(939)
More accommodative	10.3 %	15.3 %	36.4 %	15.8 %
	(10)	(204)	(20)	(234)
Total	100 %	100 %	100 %	100 %
	(97)	(1329)	(55)	(1481)

Table 2. Changes in vote on the framework agreement and changes in expected consequences of an erosion of bilateral treaties (Oct./Nov. 2019–February 2021).

	Change in vote on framework agreement (waves 1–3)
Change in evaluations of erosion of bilateral treaties	Cooperative shift from no to yes	Unchanged	Non-cooperative shift from yes to no	Total
More negative	28.6 %	19.7 %	16.4 %	19.9 %
	(22)	(213)	(21)	(256)
Unchanged	53.2 %	56.9 %	53.9 %	56.3 %
	(41)	(614)	(69)	(724)
More positive	18.2 %	23.4 %	29.7 %	23.7 %
	(14)	(253)	(38)	(305)
Total	100 %	100 %	100 %	100 %
	(77)	(1080)	(128)	(1285)

Table 3. The impact of changes in Brexit evaluations on changes in expected consequences of differentiation.

	Dependent variable:
	Expected market access				Positive view of erosion of bilateral treaties
	Model 1	Model 2	Model 3	Model 4	Model 5	Model 6	Model 7	Model 8
British strategy as role model	0.013	0.115**			0.013	−0.123***
	(0.017)	(0.047)			(0.013)	(0.034)
British strategy : Support for cooperation		−0.071**				0.080***
		(0.032)				(0.024)
British strategy : Support for cooperation^2		0.009**				−0.009***
		(0.004)				(0.003)
Positive Brexit impact on UK			0.039*	0.209**			0.021	−0.038
			(0.021)	(0.082)			(0.022)	(0.057)
Brexit impact : Support for cooperation				−0.084*				0.004
				(0.044)				(0.042)
Brexit impact : Support for cooperation^2				0.008				0.002
				(0.005)				(0.006)
Obs.	2661	2656	2671	2663	3491	3477	3503	3489
R2 Adj.	0.607	0.608	0.606	0.607	0.471	0.476	0.477	0.481
R2 Within	0.021	0.028	0.018	0.028	0.014	0.022	0.015	0.021

Note: TWFE models with standard errors clustered at the individual level. Controls include: interest in Swiss-EU relations; awareness of Brexit; support for immigration; populist attitudes; dissatisfaction with democracy; economic dissatisfaction; government dissatisfaction; SVP vote; ideology and its squared term. Full results are shown in the online appendix (Table A2).

*p < 0.1, **p < 0.05, ***p < 0.01.

Figure 8. Interaction plots.

Figure 9. Interaction plots.

Table 4. The impact of changes in Brexit evaluations on changes in vote intentions.

	Dependent variable:
	Support for Limitation initiative				Opposition to framework agreement
	Model 9	Model 10	Model 11	Model 12	Model 13	Model 14	Model 15	Model 16
British strategy as role model	−0.007	0.022			0.028*	−0.075
	(0.017)	(0.050)			(0.015)	(0.050)
British strategy : Support for cooperation		−0.027				0.068***
		(0.034)				(0.026)
British strategy : Support for cooperation^2		0.004				−0.008***
		(0.004)				(0.003)
Positive Brexit impact on UK			0.006	0.119			0.014	−0.130*
			(0.024)	(0.074)			(0.019)	(0.075)
Brexit impact : Support for cooperation				−0.044				0.098***
				(0.040)				(0.038)
Brexit impact : Support for cooperation^2				0.004				−0.012***
				(0.005)				(0.004)
Num.Obs.	2678	2672	2683	2675	3525	3512	3535	3521
R2 Adj.	0.759	0.769	0.772	0.783	0.722	0.723	0.721	0.722
R2 Within	0.043	0.040	0.045	0.049	0.027	0.037	0.023	0.034

Note: TWFE models with standard errors clustered at the individual level. Controls include: interest in Swiss-EU relations; awareness of Brexit; support for immigration; populist attitudes; dissatisfaction with democracy; economic dissatisfaction; government dissatisfaction; SVP vote; ideology and its squared term. Full results are shown in the online appendix (Table A3).

* p < 0.1, ** p < 0.05, *** p < 0.01.