The effects of low attainment on young people's outcomes at age 22–23 in Scotland

Abstract

A common concern among policy makers in Europe is the low level of qualifications of some school leavers and the possible consequences of this for their life chances and for countries' economic prosperity. This article considers the impact of young people's low levels of educational attainment on their later life chances, especially on labour market participation. It identifies the long‐term negative effects of low attainment and explores the extent to which family background also continues to influence young people's outcomes. It examines the outcomes of low attainment among young men and women and considers whether low attainment has a different impact on the prospects of young men and women. The article also investigates whether staying on at school improves longer‐term chances and opportunities for low attainers. These questions have strong policy relevance, and are explored using data from a nationally representative survey of Scottish school leavers.

Acknowledgements

This article draws on research funded by the Scottish Executive Education Department. Details of this research and copies of the report are available from the authors. We are very grateful to our colleagues at the Centre for Educational Sociology, University of Edinburgh, Linda Croxford and Jenny Ozga, for their helpful comments and suggestions on earlier drafts of the article.

Notes

1. Some 24% of Scots in employment have no qualifications.

2. Fourth year (S4) is the last year of the compulsory schooling in Scotland when young people are aged 15–16. Thereafter they can chose to continue at school for up to another two years—fifth year (S5) and sixth year (S6).

3. Percentages have been rounded to the nearest whole figure so some columns or rows may not sum to 100%.

4. The reason for presenting also those coefficients close to significance is that sometimes the small number of cases may have affected the level of significance (due to larger standard errors).

5. It was not possible to consider participation in the Youth Training Scheme on outcomes at 22–23 due to small numbers and difficulties with the accuracy of respondents' recall about this. We included the International Labour Organisation (ILO) unemployment rates for the different Local Enterprise Company (LEC) areas for all those of working age in the models but they had no significant effect on outcomes at 22–23 and so were excluded from the analyses. We used this measure of unemployment because it was not possible to use the youth unemployment rate due to insufficient numbers in some LEC areas.

6. A substantial period of unemployment is defined as being unemployed for more than six months.