Austerity, outsourcing and the state school workforce: trends from 20,000 English state schools

Figures & data

Figure 1. Types of leader as a percentage of all teachers (2002-03 to 2018-19).

Figure 2. Percentage of full-time, qualified classroom teachers receiving managerial payments (2010-11 to 2014-15).

Figure 3. Percentage of qualified teachers receiving allowances (2010-11 to 2018-19).

Figure 4. Numbers of types of worker per 100 pupils (2000-01 to 2018-19).

Table 1. Descriptive statistics for workforce dependent variables.

Dependent variable	School phase	School type (2016-17)	Mean 2010-11	Mean 2016-17	Difference 2010:2016
Teachers in Leadership (%)	Primary	LA maintained	21.0	20.6	–0.40
		Academy	19.6	20.1	+0.43
	Secondary	LA maintained	10.3	11.3	+1.05
		Academy	10.0	11.3	+1.28
Teachers Per 100 Pupils	Primary	LA maintained	5.1	5.1	–0.04
		Academy	5.0	4.9	–0.09
	Secondary	LA maintained	6.7	6.6	–0.15
		Academy	6.7	6.4	–0.24
TAs Per 100 Pupils	Primary	LA maintained	3.1	3.9	+0.84
		Academy	3.1	3.9	+0.82
	Secondary	LA maintained	1.3	1.7	+0.43
		Academy	1.1	1.5	+0.35

Figure 5. Estimated divergence of academies from LA maintained schools in the number of TAs and teachers per pupil (with 95% confidence intervals).

Figure 6. Estimated divergence of academies from LA maintained schools in the percentage of teachers in leadership positions (with 95% confidence intervals).

Table 2. Determinants of workforce characteristics in primary and secondary state schools in 2016.

	Dependent variable:
	Teachers in Leadership (Percentage)		Teachers Per 100 Pupils		TAs Per 100 Pupils
	Primary	Secondary	Primary	Secondary	Primary	Secondary
Academy	0.297	1.149**	0.001	–0.040	0.005	–0.032
	(0.323)	(0.411)	(0.044)	(0.086)	(0.052)	(0.062)
Academy Years	0.144	–0.147	–0.026*	–0.008	–0.050***	–0.022
	(0.087)	(0.079)	(0.012)	(0.017)	(0.014)	(0.012)
Baseline Teachers in Leadership Percentage	0.263***	0.251***
	(0.008)	(0.026)
Baseline Teacher-Pupil Ratio			0.526***	0.396***
			(0.008)	(0.022)
Baseline TA-Pupil Ratio					0.395***	0.347***
					(0.008)	(0.018)
Total Pupils	–0.018***	–0.002***
	(0.001)	(0.0003)
Percentage Pupils Receiving Free School Meals	–0.030***	0.048***	0.010***	0.023***	0.033***	0.020***
	(0.005)	(0.012)	(0.001)	(0.003)	(0.001)	(0.002)
Percentage Pupils Speaking English as Additional Language	0.019***	–0.023***	–0.0003	–0.005**	0.0001	–0.004***
	(0.005)	(0.007)	(0.001)	(0.001)	(0.001)	(0.001)
Percentage Pupils Over 16		–0.023		0.007		–0.020***
		(0.019)		(0.004)		(0.003)
Ofsted Rating (Ref. = Outstanding)
Ofsted Good	–0.224	0.171	–0.025	0.065	–0.073**	0.110**
	(0.178)	(0.228)	(0.024)	(0.048)	(0.028)	(0.034)
Ofsted Satisfactory	–0.554**	0.862***	–0.058*	0.057	–0.101**	0.087*
	(0.197)	(0.259)	(0.027)	(0.054)	(0.031)	(0.039)
Ofsted Inadequate	–0.471	0.322	–0.153**	–0.032	–0.105	0.101
	(0.429)	(0.507)	(0.059)	(0.106)	(0.068)	(0.075)
Rural/Urban (Ref. = Mainly Rural)
Urban with Major Conurbation	0.072	0.421	–0.340***	–0.080	–0.183**	–0.203***
	(0.304)	(0.363)	(0.043)	(0.073)	(0.059)	(0.059)
Urban with Minor Conurbation	–0.160	–0.191	–0.416***	–0.122	–0.033	–0.017
	(0.519)	(0.674)	(0.074)	(0.137)	(0.092)	(0.108)
Urban with City and Town	–0.614*	0.194	–0.333***	–0.171**	–0.044	–0.008
	(0.243)	(0.317)	(0.033)	(0.065)	(0.039)	(0.049)
Urban with Significant Rural	–0.446	0.569	–0.242***	–0.172*	–0.145***	–0.087
	(0.250)	(0.362)	(0.034)	(0.075)	(0.040)	(0.055)
Largely Rural	0.036	0.196	–0.196***	–0.229**	–0.090*	–0.051
	(0.257)	(0.364)	(0.035)	(0.076)	(0.041)	(0.055)
N: Local Authorities	152	150	152	150	152	150
N: Schools	15877	2647	15873	2647	15868	2641
Variance: Local Authorities	1.727488	0.85996	0.046715	0.025631	0.225145	0.042406
Variance: Residual	56.888695	18.347744	1.064928	0.817673	1.433585	0.400857

Table A1. Primary state school determinants of percentage of teachers in leadership by baseline year.

	Dependent variable:
	Teachers in Leadership 2016 (Percentage)
	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015
Academy	0.256	0.381	0.376	0.323	0.509	-0.017
	(0.340)	(0.363)	(0.394)	(0.472)	(0.652)	(0.255)
Academy Years	0.182*	0.149	0.139	0.043	-0.320
	(0.092)	(0.108)	(0.139)	(0.217)	(0.423)
Controls	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
N: Local Authorities	152	152	152	152	152	152
N: Schools	13929	13592	13300	12876	12283	11830
Variance: Local Authorities	1.7	1.6	1.3	1	0.8	0.3
Variance: Residual	55.1	54	50.3	48.5	42.5	31

Note: *p < 0.05; ** p < 0.01; *** p < 0.001.

Table A2. Primary state school determinants of number of teachers per 100 pupils by baseline year.

	Dependent variable:
	Teachers Per 100 Pupils 2016
	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015
Academy	0.002	–0.005	–0.030	–0.024	–0.073	0.012
	(0.047)	(0.053)	(0.058)	(0.070)	(0.099)	(0.039)
Academy Years	–0.029*	–0.038*	–0.023	–0.011	0.041
	(0.013)	(0.016)	(0.020)	(0.032)	(0.064)
Controls	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
N: Local Authorities	152	152	152	152	152	152
N: Schools	13926	13893	13437	12917	12408	11981
Variance: Local Authorities	0.048	0.103	0.045	0.04	0.038	0.014
Variance: Residual	1.057	1.165	1.09	1.06	0.979	0.726

Note: *p < 0.05; ** p < 0.01; *** p < 0.001

Table A3. Primary state school determinants of number of teaching assistants per 100 pupils by baseline year.

	Dependent variable:
	TAs Per 100 Pupils 2016
	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015
Academy	0.024	0.016	0.022	–0.044	–0.136	–0.030
	(0.055)	(0.057)	(0.062)	(0.072)	(0.097)	(0.037)
Academy Years	–0.056***	–0.057***	–0.066**	–0.026	0.045
	(0.015)	(0.017)	(0.022)	(0.033)	(0.062)
Controls	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
N: Local Authorities	152	152	152	152	152	152
N: Schools	13909	13588	13397	12903	12396	11950
Variance: Local Authorities	0.227	0.182	0.182	0.166	0.136	0.084
Variance: Residual	1.43	1.315	1.225	1.109	0.924	0.631

Note: *p < 0.05; ** p < 0.01; *** p < 0.001.

Table A4. Secondary state school determinants of percentage of teachers in leadership by baseline year.

	Dependent variable:
	Teachers in Leadership 2016 (Percentage)
	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015
Academy	1.370**	1.383**	0.488	–0.086	–0.354	0.499
	(0.434)	(0.458)	(0.539)	(0.676)	(0.844)	(0.346)
Academy Years	–0.188*	–0.152	0.181	0.569	0.605
	(0.084)	(0.108)	(0.171)	(0.301)	(0.521)
Controls	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
N: Local Authorities	150	147	147	144	143	141
N: Schools	2349	1756	1415	1247	1148	1056
Variance: Local Authorities	0.8	0.5	0.5	0.7	0.2	0.3
Variance: Residual	18.9	16.6	16.2	15.2	11.5	8.4

Note: *p < 0.05; ** p < 0.01; *** p < 0.001.

Table A5. Secondary state school determinants of number of teachers per 100 pupils by baseline year.

	Dependent variable:
	Teachers Per 100 Pupils 2016
	2010	2011		2012	2013	2014	2015
Academy	–0.053	–0.171	–0.088		0.018	0.135	0.044
	(0.092)	(0.110)	(0.124)		(0.161)	(0.221)	(0.098)
Academy Years	–0.006	0.035	0.004		–0.059	–0.107
	(0.018)	(0.026)	(0.039)		(0.072)	(0.136)
Controls	Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes
N: Local Authorities	150	148	147		144	143	141
N: Schools	2349	1790	1415		1247	1148	1059
Variance: Local Authorities	0.027	0.055	0.043		0.039	0.022	0.011
Variance: Residual	0.863	0.954	0.856		0.864	0.781	0.677

Note: *p < 0.05; ** p < 0.01; *** p < 0.001.

Table A6. Secondary state school determinants of number of teaching assistants per 100 pupils by baseline year.

	Dependent variable:
	TAs Per 100 Pupils 2016
	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015
Academy	–0.027	–0.032	–0.071	–0.001	–0.028	–0.091
	(0.066)	(0.069)	(0.082)	(0.098)	(0.131)	(0.052)
Academy Years	–0.030*	–0.019	–0.005	–0.039	–0.017
	(0.013)	(0.016)	(0.026)	(0.044)	(0.081)
Controls	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
N: Local Authorities	150	147	147	144	143	141
N: Schools	2342	1743	1409	1245	1147	1057
Variance: Local Authorities	0.044	0.018	0.02	0.016	0.004	0.001
Variance: Residual	0.418	0.369	0.369	0.32	0.275	0.195

Note: *p < 0.05; ** p < 0.01; *** p < 0.001.

Table A7. Wald chi-squared test of joint significance statistics and significance levels for academy and academy type variables in Tables A1–A6.

			Baseline year
Dependent variable	Phase	Type	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014
Teachers in leadership (%)	Primary	Academy	28.8***	24.3***	17.2***	4.1	0.6
	Secondary	Academy	11.5**	17.4***	18.1***	17.8***	5.1
Teachers per 100 pupils	Primary	Academy	20.1***	27.8***	12.3**	2.4	0.6
	Secondary	Academy	3.9	2.4	1.8	3.0	0.7
TAs per 100 pupils	Primary	Academy	46.4***	42.3***	35.3***	10.0**	4.8
	Secondary	Academy	33.9***	12.3**	5.2	4.5	1.5

Note: *p < 0.05; ** p < 0.01; *** p < 0.001.

Table A8. Differences in differences estimates of determinants of workforce characteristics in primary and secondary state schools (2010–2016).

	Dependent variable:
	Teachers in Leadership Percentage		Teacher-Pupil Ratio		TA-Pupil Ratio
	(1)	(2)	(3)	(4)	(5)	(6)
Academy	0.694***	0.315**	–0.048**	–0.084***	–0.047*	–0.051**
	(0.123)	(0.097)	(0.016)	(0.026)	(0.018)	(0.017)
Year Dummies (Ref. = 2010)
2011	–0.064	–0.058	–0.080***	–0.194***	0.355***	0.507***
	(0.049)	(0.058)	(0.009)	(0.025)	(0.009)	(0.014)
2012	–0.236***	–0.046	0.026***	0.021	0.510***	0.550***
	(0.056)	(0.077)	(0.008)	(0.019)	(0.010)	(0.017)
2013	–0.378***	0.173	0.036**	0.049*	0.626***	0.578***
	(0.067)	(0.097)	(0.011)	(0.024)	(0.011)	(0.018)
2014	–0.102	0.645***	0.072***	0.024	0.783***	0.566***
	(0.076)	(0.102)	(0.011)	(0.024)	(0.012)	(0.019)
2015	0.055	0.797***	0.078***	–0.052*	0.867***	0.505***
	(0.083)	(0.108)	(0.014)	(0.026)	(0.014)	(0.020)
2016	–0.026	0.766***	0.070***	–0.183***	0.888***	0.421***
	(0.094)	(0.116)	(0.014)	(0.028)	(0.015)	(0.021)
Total Pupils	–0.015***	–0.004***	–0.004***	–0.002***	–0.002***	–0.001***
	(0.001)	(0.001)	(0.0002)	(0.0002)	(0.0002)	(0.0001)
Percentage Pupils Aged Over 16		–0.059*		0.022*		–0.006
		(0.027)		(0.009)		(0.004)
Percentage Pupils Eligible for Free School Meals	–0.028***	0.002	–0.006*	0.003	–0.006***	0.006**
	(0.007)	(0.012)	(0.002)	(0.004)	(0.002)	(0.002)
Percentage Pupils Speaking English as Additional Language	0.014	0.030**	0.005***	–0.003	0.002	–0.0005
	(0.009)	(0.011)	(0.001)	(0.003)	(0.001)	(0.002)
Ofsted Rating (Ref. = Outstanding)
Ofsted Good	–0.086	–0.221	0.033	–0.034	0.050**	0.001
	(0.117)	(0.119)	(0.017)	(0.032)	(0.018)	(0.018)
Ofsted Satisfactory	0.091	–0.332*	0.092***	0.021	0.073***	0.039
	(0.130)	(0.141)	(0.020)	(0.038)	(0.020)	(0.022)
Ofsted Inadequate	0.047	–0.329	0.086*	0.021	0.130***	0.056
	(0.203)	(0.206)	(0.036)	(0.054)	(0.033)	(0.033)
Fixed Effects for Schools	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
Degrees of Freedom	97,290	98,358	97,879	16,650	16,757	16,633

Note: *p < 0.05; ** p < 0.01; *** p < 0.001.