Cracks in the Firmament of Burma's Military Government: from unity through coercion to buying support

Abstract

Despite holding recent elections, Burma's military government does not intend to relinquish power; its new constitution guarantees the army the right to do whatever it wants. Democracy will therefore not come to Burma through legal, peaceful, incremental steps. Instead, democracy will come to Burma outside the legal process, because the basis for the regime's power has changed, becoming markedly weaker. When it first seized power in 1961, the military was united and therefore able to rule through coercion alone. In the past several decades, by contrast, the generals have increasingly sought to purchase support by giving income and resource streams to key players. But if people support the regime only because it pays them, they will stop doing so when it stops paying. In recent years the regime has alienated many traditional supporters by taking away the income and resource streams on which they had come to rely. As these groups become alienated from the top generals, they may turn to each other to forge new deals, and ultimately some may try to enlist the people as political allies. Burma therefore fits the most common pattern for democratisation: it will come through elite defections rather than popular insurrection.

Notes

1 ‘Myanmar votes in election controlled by military’, New York Times, 7 November 2010, A14, at http://www.nytimes.com/2010/11/07/world/asia/07myanmar.html?ref=myanmar.

2 ‘Burmese dissident is freed after long detention’, New York Times, 14 November 2010, A1, at http://www.nytimes.com/2010/11/14/world/asia/14myanmar.html.

3 AH Tung, ‘New Myanmar constitution gives military leading role’, Reuters, 19 February 2008, at http://www.reuters.com/article/2008/02/19/us-myanmar-constitution-idUSBKK10184120080219; RH Taylor, The State in Myanmar, Honolulu, HI: University of Hawaii Press, 2009, pp 487–506; and Constitution of the Republic of the Union of Myanmar (2008), at http://ccd.indiana.edu/file_download/10/cob2008_eng.pdf.

4 M Callahan, Making Enemies: War and State Building in Burma, Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press, 2003, pp 2–8, 145–206.

5 Taylor, The State in Myanmar, pp 294–307.

6 Ibid, pp 393–420,433–445, 476–485.

7 Ibid, pp 400–01, 439–441.

8 Ibid, pp 372–373, 476–485.

9 See, for example, SY Naing, ‘Burmese ceasefire breaks down’, The Irrawaddy, 28 August 2009, at http://www.irrawaddy.org/highlight.php?art_id=16658.

10 J Borger, ‘Burmese pm and cabinet resign from army to stand as civilians in election’, Guardian, 27 April 2010, at http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2010/apr/27/burma-election-junta-civilians.

11 P Thornton, ‘An army out of control’, Bangkok Post, 27 March 2011, at http://www.shanland.org/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=3551:an-army-out-of-control&catid=115:opinions&Itemid=308.

12 Constitution of the Republic of the Union of Myanmar.

13 BDC Williams, ‘Ethnicity, elections and reform in Burma', Georgetown Journal of International Affairs, Winter/Spring 2011.

14 Constitution of the Republic of the Union of Myanmar, Article 232(b)(ii).

15 Ibid, Article 20.

16 Ibid, Article 20(b).

17 Ibid, Article 6(f).

18 Ibid, Article 20(e).

19 Ibid, Article 417.

20 Ibid, Article 421.

21 Taylor, The State in Burma, p 389. See also MW Charney, A History of Burma, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2009, p 161.

22 Constitution of the Republic of the Union of Myanmar, Articles 433–436.

23 Ibid, Article 436(b).

24 See ibid, Articles 109(b), 141(b).

25 Callahan, Making Enemies, pp 13–14.

26 Ibid, p 133.

27 Ibid, pp 109–113.

28 Ibid, pp 146, 154–156.

29 Ibid, pp 193194.

30 Ibid, pp 184–188; and Charney, A History of Modern Burma, pp 90–92.

31 Taylor, The State in Myanmar, p 292.

32 See Charney, A History of Modern Burma, p 109; Taylor, The State in Myanmar, p 294; and Callahan, Making Enemies, p 189.

33 Callahan, Making Enemies, p 189.

34 Ibid, p 190.

35 D Slater, Ordering Power: Contentious Politics and Authoritarian Leviathans in Southeast Asia, New York: Cambridge University Press, 2010, pp 270–271; and Callahan, Making Enemies, pp 203–204.

36 Callahan, Making Enemies, p 204.

37 Taylor, The State in Myanmar, p 295.

38 Ibid, p 317.

39 Ibid, p 303.

40 Ibid, pp 317–324.

41 Ibid, p 328.

42 Slater, Ordering Power, p 272.

43 Ibid, pp 271–272; and Taylor, The State in Myanmar, pp 336–337.

44 Ibid, p 295.

45 Ibid, pp 422, 428.

46 Charney, A History of Modern Burma, p 188.

47 Ibid, pp 188–190; and Callahan, Making Enemies, p 220.

48 Callahan, Making Enemies, pp 212, 217–218.

49 Ibid, p 210.

50 Ibid, p 217.

51 Ibid, pp 219–220; and Charney, A History of Modern Burma, pp 179–180.

52 Charney, A History of Modern Burma, p 177.

53 Ibid, pp 180–182.

54 See, for example, H Beech & PU Lewin, ‘Soldiers of fortune’, Time, 26 July 2010, at http://www.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,2003999,00.html.

55 Callahan, Making Enemies, p 220.

56 See, for example, L Weng, ‘kio calls for free and fair election’, The Irrawaddy, 1 September 2010, at http://www.irrawaddy.org/article.php?art_id=19356.

57 SY Naing, ‘10 000 more Kokang refugees flee into China’, The Irrawaddy, 28 August 2009, at http://www.irrawaddy.org/article.php?art_id=16661.

58 SZ Hseng, ‘Human rights abuses reported in Shan State clashes’, The Irrawaddy, 12 April 2011, at http://www.irrawaddy.org/article.php?art_id=21119.

59 SY Naing, ‘Karen State conflict intensifies’, The Irrawaddy, 18 May 2011, at http://www.irrawaddy.org/article.php?art_id=21316.

60 SY Naing, ‘Ethnic alliance vows to strive for federal union’, The Irrawaddy, 21 February, 2011, at http://www.irrawaddy.org/article.php?art_id=20792.

61 Callahan, Making Enemies, p 218.

62 P Thornton, ‘An army out of control’.

63 Callahan, Making Enemies, p 217.

64 B Doherty, ‘Burma's ailing dictator resigns military post’, Guardian, 27 August 2010, at http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2010/aug/27/burma-dictator-resigns-military-post.

65 ‘Burma transfer of power complete’, bbc, 30 March 2011, at http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-pacific-12903507.

66 W Moe, ‘Myint Aung dismissed, placed under house arrest’, The Irrawaddy, 10 February 2011, at http://www.irrawaddy.org/highlight.php?art_id=20725.

67 ‘Economist U Myint on serving as a presidential adviser’, Mizzima, 4 May 2011, at http://www.mizzima.com/edop/interview/5216-economist-u-myint-on-serving-as-a-presidential-adviser.html.

68 W Moe, ‘Thein Sein likely to be sworn in before Chinese visit’, The Irrawaddy, 17 March 2011, at http://www.irrawaddy.org/article.php?art_id=21239.