Aid, accountability and institution building in Ethiopia: the self-limiting nature of technocratic aid

Figures & data

Figure 1. Growth of real GDP for Ethiopia, 1950–2011 (in 2005 PPP$; output-based; log scale).

Source: Penn World Tables 8.0, http://www.rug.nl/research/ggdc/data/pwt/.

Figure 2. Real GDP per person, and real capital stock per worker for Ethiopia, 1960–2011 (in 2005 PPP$; national accounts).

Notes: RGPP = real GDP per worker (bottom line). RKPW = real capital stock per worker (top line).

Source: Penn World Tables 8.0, http://www.rug.nl/research/ggdc/data/pwt/.

Figure 3. Ethiopia: authority trends, 1946–2013.

Notes: Vertical axis is Polity IV scores. Turning Points: 1974 Revolution, 1991 overthrow of Derg; 2000 split within EPRDF, and 2005 highly polarising parliamentary elections.

Source: Adapted from Systemic Peace database, http://www.systemicpeace.org/polity/eti2.htm.

Table 1. Time-line of major aid-related developments, 1990–2012.

Year	Major events	Donor responses
1990–91	• Derg belatedly decollectivises, decontrols prices, and frees inter-regional trade • EPRDF assumes state power in mid-1991 • Liberalisation of prices and Birr • A liberal Investment Code	• Western governments unconditionally support EPRDF takeover • Emergency and BOP assistance but squeamish about the initially leftist economic policy of EPRDF
1992–94	• EPRDF rules under Transitional Charter • Macro stabilisation and demobilisation • Independent CSOs and freer press allowed • Eritrea secedes; Ethiopia is landlocked • New ethnic-based federal Constitution	• Multi-donor conference led by IFIs • Economic recovery and reconstruction programme (structural adjustment credits) • Food security and road rehabilitation • Public expenditure reviews
1995–97	• Non-competitive parliamentary elections • Lower and more uniform tariffs • Exchange rate liberalisation, inter-bank auctions, and interest rate decontrol • Privatisation of SMEs • Civil service reform and retrenchment • Fiscal federalism with broader tax base	• Sector investment, public investment and medium-term economic plans • Extended structural adjustment facility • Investment in roads and public utilities, food security and deeper privatisation • Jointly developed policy framework papers
1998–2000	• Ethio-Eritrean conflicts: 100,000 killed • Border delimitation but no demarcation • Internal split within the TPLF leadership • Second non-multiparty elections • Famine strikes southern and eastern areas	• Worried about instability, bilaterals suspend aid, but not IDA • Donors urge greater political accommodation of opposition parties • Food aid, led by UN and USAID, rises
2001–04	• Economy recovers in 2003, despite food shortages • First comprehensive PRSP in 2003 • Ethiopia begins to benefit from rising commodity prices and remittances	• Conditioned HIPC debt forgiveness • Direct Budget Support is strengthened • Donor harmonisation and coordination • Bilaterals increase commitments, focused on emergency aid
2005–06	• First free and fair multiparty parliamentary election ends in loss of urban areas • Premature declaration of victory by ruling party leads to public outcry, loss of 200 lives and jailing of opposition leaders • Certificates for land-use rights introduced	• Donors suspend direct budget support • Donors call for release of jailed leaders and investigation of the killings of peaceful demonstrators • Project lending and food aid continued • Much general budget support recast as Protection of Basic Services (PBS)
2007–12	• Opposition leaders released but independent CSOs political parties and media virtually annihilated; a surveillance state matures • Economy records near double-digit growth; inflation rises; mega-farms and mega-hydro projects proliferate • Draconian Charities and Media laws in 2009 • FDI and loans from BRIC accelerate • Prime Minister Meles Zenawi dies in 2012	• Protection of Basic Services expanded • IDA increases economic and sector work • IMF decries unsustainable public spending and inflationary pressure • The level of ODA increased markedly • Export, FDI and remittance revenues rise significantly to overshadow ODA • Political conditionalities abandoned

Sources: Compiled from Abegaz, “Aid and Reform in Ethiopia”; and GOE (2009); Khan, Faguet, Gaukler and Mekasha (2014); IMF (2014); World Bank (2014).

Table 2. Ethiopia: trends in respect for citizens’ rights, 2004–14.

Index and Country Rank	Index/Rank, 2004–05	Index/Rank, 2011–14	Change, 2005–14	Ranking scale(best–worst)
Human Development Index (HDI): • HDI • Rank
	0.316	0.396	0.080	1.0 – 0.0
	177	173	-4	1–186
Transparency International: CPI • Rank	0.23	0.33	0.10	1.0–0.0
	114	113	-1	1–174
Freedom House: (total) • Political Rights • Civil Liberties	(partly free)	(not free)	(worse)	(free/partly/not)
	5	6	-1	1–7
	5	6	-1	1–7
Foreign Policy: Failed State Index • Rank	91.1	97.9	-8.8	20.0–114.9
	30	17	-13	177–1

Notes: The Ibrahim Index of African Governance ranked Ethiopia 32 out of the 52 countries in 2014. CPI = corruption perception index.

Sources: UNDP, “Human Development Index,” http://hdr.undp.org/en/content/human-development-index-hdi; Transparency International, “Corruption Perceptions Index,” http://www.transparency.org/research/cpi/; Freedom House, https://freedomhouse.org/; Foreign Policy, “Failed States Index,” http://foreignpolicy.com/; and Ibrahim Foundation, “Ibrahim Index of African Governance,” http://www.moibrahimfoundation.org/interact/.

Figure 4. Total ODA received by Ethiopia (US$, 2010 prices).

Source: World Bank, African Development Indicators, 2013, http://data.worldbank.org/data-catalog/africa-development-indicators; and World Bank, World Development Indicators, 2013, http://data.worldbank.org/data-catalog/world-development-indicators.

Table 3. Net ODA flows by major donor for Ethiopia, 1990–2011.

Year	Germn	Italy	Netherl	Norway	Sweden	U.K.	Ireland	Canada	U.S.A.	Japan	IDA		AfDF	EU	GFnd	Tot. N	Tot.R	Deflat
1990		105	18	1	35	9		33	95	21	75	77		60		561	777	0.722
1991	4	32	14		7	0		30	49	5				81		267	358	0.745
1992	85	36	30		141	20		17	44	15	15	66		131		623	814	0.765
1993	7	8	34	10	11	16		22	32	64	346	203		102		883	1130	0.782
1994	67	12	61	23	58	13		13	32	23	75			111		509	637	0.799
1995	51	158	60	33	24	43		3	24	48	142			55		664	814	0.815
1996	55	47	62	28	15	14		21	34	40	156	28		37		603	726	0.831
1997	32	18	14	18	39	13		16	51	33	200	39		123		633	748	0.846
1998	59	33	46	17	13	6		22	39	45	569	161		387		1438	1682	0.855
1999	19	17	23	33	15	14		30	135	43				41		405	467	0.867
2000	31	28	14	15	9	38	21	8	181	8	465	5		115		985	1112	0.886
2001	39	11	31	14	9	17	21	11	110	23	202			157		782	863	0.907
2002	66	45	31	28	39	51	22	23	162	46	402			196		1226	1331	0.921
2003	67	33	46	44	14	64	32	16	617	36	221			98	104	1526	1622	0.941
2004	120	19	43	26	101	107	40	133	431	24	775			211		2188	2261	0.968
2005	78	364	51	28	33	222	42	29	678	79	13	135		181	42	2075	2075	1.000
2006	31	7	86	41	32	269	51	36	312	49	512	205		425	195	2403	2327	1.033
2007	42	11	37	59	23	76	54	125	489	34	1016	473		302	372	3486	3283	1.062
2008	104	38	143	37	26	205	70	228	1005	33	650			487	65	3404	3138	1.085
2009	61	26	94	42	42	543	52	85	922	97	1330	170		140	215	4391	3999	1.098
2010	107	23	41	13	30	177	49	101	983	119	560	342		141	313	3479	3149	1.105
2011	103	25	90	20	14	262	49	159	608	152	630			157	19	2840	2554	1.112
Total	1227	1094	1067	529	730	2180	503	1162	7034	1035	8355	1903		3747	1325	35374	35866
Share	0.035	0.031	0.03	0.015	0.021	0.062	0.014	0.033	0.199	0.029	0.236	0.054		0.106	0.037	1.000

Sources: OECD/DAC Creditor Reporting System (CRS) Database, 2013. GDP Deflator data are from the US Department of Commerce. Data for EU refers to community-wide aid administered by the European Commission. This table excludes emergency assistance--US$5 billion in 2002–2011 alone.

R = real, inflation adjusted; N = nominal. AfDF = African Development Bank Fund; GloF = Global Fund.

Some numbers may not add up due to rounding up.

Figure 5. World governance ratings for Ethiopia (best to worst: +2.5 to −2.5).

Source: World Bank, African Development Indicators, 2013, http://data.worldbank.org/data-catalog/africa-development-indicators; and World Bank, World Development Indicators, 2013, http://data.worldbank.org/data-catalog/world-development-indicators.

Figure 6. CPIA ratings for Ethiopia.

Notes: IRAI = IDA resource allocation index. CPIA = country policy and institutional assessment.

Source: World Bank, African Development Indicators, 2013, http://data.worldbank.org/data-catalog/africa-development-indicators; and World Bank, World Development Indicators, 2013, http://data.worldbank.org/data-catalog/world-development-indicators.