Kazakhstan’s leverage and economic diversification amid Chinese connectivity dreams

Figures & data

Table 1. Sino–Kazakhstan joint projects planned and completed between 1997 and 2022.

No.	Project title	Sector*	Cost (million USD)	Start year	Status**	No.	Project title	Sector*	Cost (million USD)	Start year	Status**
1	CNPC–AktobeMunaiGaz	O&G	4000	1997	C	2	Tsinkaz food processing company	Agr	n.a	1998	C
3	China Telecom–Kazakhtelecom joint network	Telecm	n.a.	1998	C	4	Kazakhstan–China oil pipeline	O&G	359	2002	C
5	Soya, wheat and livestock^a	Agr	n.a.	2003	C	6	Atasu–Alashankou/Kazakh–China oil pipeline	O&G	800	2004	C
7	Kaznurtel Limited Liability Company	Telecm	n.a.	2004	C	8	International Petroleum Exploration/Production^b	O&G	n.a.	2004	C
9	Investment in PetroKazakhstan, Inc.	O&G	4180	2005	C	10	Moinak hydropower station	Rew	360	2006	C
11	Kenkiyak–Kumkol oil pipeline	O&G	850	2006	C	12	JSC KaraZhanBasMunaiGaz	O&G	930	2007	C
13	Confucius Institute in Almaty	Cltr	n.a	2007	C	14	Irkol underground leaching mine to produce uranium production	Mtlg	n.a	2008	U
15	Western Europe–Western China Highway^c	Infsrctr	n.a	2008	C	16	East Europe–East China highway	Infsrctr	6600	2009	C
17	Kazakhstan–China gas pipeline	O&G	7500	2009	C	18	Loan to Development Bank of Kazakhstan	Fn	5000	2009	C
19	Confucius Institute in Almaty	Cltr	n.a	2009	C	20	Kazakhstan–China oil pumping stations	O&G	135.4	2010	C
21	Beineu–Bozoi–Kyzylorda–Shymkent gas pipeline	O&G	4000	2010	C	22	Upgrade Atyrau oil refinery foraromatic hydrocarbons	Pchm	884	2010	C
23	Upgrade of Atyrau oil refinery for deep oil refining	Pchm	1100	2011	C	24	Modernisation of Shymkent oil refinery	Pchm	1856	2011	C
25	Confucius Institute in Aktobe	Cltr	n.a	2011	C	26	Shalkar–Beineu railway	Infsrctr	1203	2012	C
27	Arkalyk–Shubarkol railway^d	Infsrctr	261	2012	C	28	Confucius Institute in Karaganda	Cltr	n.a	2012	C
29	Kazakhstani terminal in Lianyungang seaport^e	Infsrctr	99.3	2013	C	30	Beineu–Bozoi–Kyzylorda–Shymkent gas pipeline	O&G	700	2013	C
31	Kashagan oilfield in the Caspian Sea	O&G	5000	2013	C	32	Aktau bitumen plant^f	Bldg	145	2013	C
33	Aktogay copper mine^g	Mtl	3200	2013	U	34	Modernisation of Aktau port	Infsrctr	121	2014	C
35	Khorgos Dry Port	Infsrctr	239	2014	C	36	Modernisation of the Shymkent refinery^h	Pchm	1800	2014	C
37	Loan to the Development Bank of Kazakhstan	Fn	500	2014	C	38	Glass manufacturing plant	Bldg	200	2015	C
39	Processing of oil crops	Agr	23	2015	C	40	Kazakhstan Infrastructure Fund	Fn	600	2015	C
41	Modernisation of polypropylene production	PChm	12	2015	C	42	Manufacture of cars	Mchg	22	2015	C
43	Kuryk port in Mangistau	Infsrctr	280	2015	C	44	Astana railway system	Infsrctr	1887	2015	C
45	Almaty 1–Shu railway	Infsrctr	110	2015	C	46	Production of powder polypropylene	Pchm	12	2015	C
47	Construction of steel pipes manufacturing plant	Mtlg	100	2016	U	48	Integrated alloys plant	Mtlg	50	2016	C
49	China–Kazakh Production Capacity cooperation Fund	Fn	2000	2016	C	50	Metallurgical plant	Mtlg	50	2016	C
51	Recycling of PET waste for staple fibre production	Pchm	20	2016	C	52	Processing of ferrous metals	Mtlg	50	2016	C
53	Cement plant	Bldg	177	2016	C	54	Deep processing of grain	Agr	110	2016	C
55	Cultivation/deep processing of flax and other crops	Agr	117.6	2016	C	56	China International Forum/Cross-Border education	Cltr	n.a	2016	C
57	Production of rapeseed oil	Agr	19	2016	C	58	Production of powdered milk from camel’s milk	Agr	23	2016	C
59	Fuel assemblies plant	Pchm	172	2016	C	60	Drip irrigation equipment plant	Agr	0.03	2016	C
61	Drip irrigation	Agr	1.8	2016	C	62	Astana city transport system^i	Infsrctr	1900	2016	T
63	Processing of camel and horse milk	Agr	22	2016	C	64	Hydropower plants	Rew	50	2017	U
65	Centre–South road: Karaganda–Balkhash section	Infsrctr	852	2017	U	66	Centre–West road	Infsrctr	1111	2017	U
67	Polypropylene production	Pchm	2600	2017	n.a.	68	Reconstruction of the Taldykorgan–Kalbatau–Ust–Kamenogorsk highway	Infsrctr	796	2017	C
69	Reconstruction of the Merke–Burybaytal roadway	Infsrctr	253	2017	C	70	Solar power station in Gulshat	Rew	69	2017	U
71	Reconstruction of two power units in Aksu	Enrgy	600	2017	U	72	Turgun II hydropower station	Rew	23.3	2017	C
73	A mining, chemical and metallurgical complex	Mtlg	1500	2017	U	74	Silicon manufacturing plant	Mtlg	107	2017	n.a.
75	Production of explosives	Chm	20	2017	n.a.	76	Olefin production facility for KazAzot	Chm	2350	2017	n.a.
77	Production of potash fertiliser	Chm	1700	2017	n.a.	78	Fresh-frozen fish and fish products	Agr	0.5	2017	C
79	Tomatoes growing and tomato paste production	Agr	32.6	2017	C	80	Processing of soybeans	Agr	28	2017	C
81	Sheep farming, meat processing, leather/fur factory	Agr	26.7	2017	n.a.	82	Deep processing of agricultural products	Agr	500	2017	n.a.
83	PET waste processing and staple fibre production	Pchm	20	2017	C	84	Mining, processing and steel production plant	Mtlg	900	2017	C
85	Reconstruction of electrolysis plant	Chm	500	2017	U	86	Poultry farm construction	Agr	20	2017	C
87	Processing of antler and meat products	Agr	1.7	2017	C	88	Poultry farm construction	Agr	132.4	2017	C
89	Production of semi-finished meat products	Agr	3.5	2017	C	90	PetroKazakhstan Oil Products LLP Oil Refinery	Pchm	2100	2017	C
91	Production of polypropylene	Pchm	2630	2017	U	92	Wind power plant in Shelek corridor	Rew	103	2018	U
93	Meat processing plant	Agr	26	2018	U	94	Khorgos–Eastern Gate technology park	Infsrctr	205	2018	U
95	Wind power plant	Rew	47	2018	p	96	FEZ Chemical Park in Taraz ^j	IndstrP	99.7	2018	U
97	Processing and sale of rapeseed and sunflower seeds	Agr	3.5	2018	n.a.	98	Slaughterhouse	Agr	25.3	2018	C
99	Education for 200 Kazakhstan students in China	Cltr	n.a.	2018	C	100	11th Educational Exchange “China–ASEAN” in Guizhou	Cltr	n.a	2018	C
101	Anodic copper production	Mtlg	1300	2018	n.a.	102	Phosphorus trichloride and glyphosate production in Taraz	Chm	200.3	2018	n.a.
103	Methanol and ammonia production in Khimpark Taraz	Chm	1.5	2018	n.a.	104	Solar power plant	Rew	107	2018	C
105	Heat supply system for the energy projection	Enrgy	154	2018	U	106	‘Zhangiz Solar’ solar power plant	Rew	27	2018	C
107	Acquisition of Astana International Exchange	Fn	13	2018	C	108	Reconstruction of Astana–Almaty roadway	Infsrctr	727	2018	U
109	Wind power plant in the Shelek corridor	Rew	149	2018	C	110	Kerbulak hydroelectric station on the Ili River	Rew	152	2018	C
111	Production of oil and gas equipment	O&G	100	2018	C	112	Coal processing complex	Pchm	2500	2018	n.a.
113	Small hydropower stations on the Shelek River	Rew	117	2018	C	114	Liquefied natural gas production in Taraz	O&G	40	2018	n.a.
115	Elevators and lift equipment production	Mchg	7	2018	C	116	Development of a multi-car assembly cluster	Mchg	1100	2018	C
117	Sodium carbonate plant	Chm	275	2018	U	118	Desalination plant	Chm	60	2019	P
119	Production of potassium sulphate in Khimpark Taraz	Chm	268	2018	n.a.	120	Production of emulsion explosives, and expanded amonium nitrate industrial explosives production plant	Chm	25	2019	U
121	Wind power plant in Zhanatas	Rew	150	2019	U	122	Manufacture of ceramics products	Bldg	39	2019	U
123	Wind power plant in Tobyl Solar Park	Rew	50	2019	P	124	Solar power plant	Rew	42	2019	P
125	Oil extraction plant	O&G	70	2019	P	126	Solar cells production	Rew	70	2019	P
127	Mobile drilling rigs production	Mchg	13	2019	P	128	Mineral fertilisers production	Chm	446.5	2019	n.a.
129	Cement production plant	Bldg	117	2019	n.a.	130	Production of tractor	Mchg	10	2019	C
131	Complex alloys plant	Mtlg	260	2020	P	132	Wind power plant	Rew	100	2020	P
133	Wind power plant	Rew	50	2020	P	134	Natural stone products	Bldg	25	2020	P
135	Distribution of gas turbine power plants	Enrgy	354	2020	P	136	Ammonia-carbamide production	Chm	600	2020	P
137	Coal chemical complex	Chm	2600	2020	P	138	Mass Rapid Transit in Almaty	Infsrctr	1071	2020	P
139	Methanol and ammonia production in Atyrau	Chm	1600	2020	U	140	Gas pipeline production	O&G	50	2020	P
141	Cable products production	Mchg	18	2020	P	142	Processing of hazardous oily waste	Pchm	97	2020	P
143	Agricultural crops processing plant	Agr	250	2020	P	144	Production of electrolytic manganese	Mtlg	45	2020	P
145	Mining–Chemical–Metallurgical Complex in Pavlodar and Zhambyl region	Mtlg	2300	2020	P	146	Development of tungsten ore deposit in Boguty	Mtl	260	2020	P
147	Aluminum smelter plant	Mtlg	1465	2021	P	148	Reconstruct two power units at Aksu Power Plant	Enrgy	540	2021	P
149	Development of Koksay copper deposit	Mtl	1500	2021	P	150	Heating and power plant in Taldykurgan	Enrgy	540	2021	P
151	Biochemical cluster for deep wheat processing	Agr	2500	2021	P	152	Potassium mineral fertilisers production	Chm	3000	2021	P
153	Mineral fertilisers production	Chm	600	2022	P	154	Koksai copper deposit	Mtl	1083	P	P
155	Metallurgical plant	Mtlg	94.8	P	P	156	Hydropower station in Turgun	Rew	250	p	p
157	Development of cross-border e-commerce centre	Fn	42	n.a.	n.a.	158	Manufacture of oil and gas equipment	O&G	8	n.a	n.a.
159	Phosphorus trichloride and glyphosate production	PChm	199	n.a	n.a.	160	Small hydro power plants	Rew	117	n.a	n.a.
161	Tomato processing plant	Agr	26	n.a	n.a.	162	Production of yarn from cotton	Agr	37	n.a	n.a.
163	Emulsion explosives production	Chm	20	n.a	n.a.	164	Spindle production	Mchg	220	P	P
165	Construction, mining and metallurgical complex in Akmola	Mtlg	n.a.	P	P	166	Geological exploration and oilfield development	O&G	4800	P	P

* Fuels- and connectivity-related joint projects: culture (Cltr), transport infrastructure (Infsrctr), oil and gas (O&G), telecommunications (Telecm).

** Non-fuels- and non-connectivity-related joint projects: agriculture and food processing (Agr), building materials (Bldg), chemistry (Chm), energy (Enrgy), finance (Fn), industrial park (IndstrP), manufacturing (Mnftr), mechanical engineering (Mchg), metal mining (Mtl), metallurgy (Mtlg), petrochemistry (Pchm), and renewable energy (Rew). **Status: completed (C), under construction (U), planned (P), terminated (T), and information not available (n.a.).

Source: Project information compiled from the following reference unless otherwise specified with superscripts: Kazakh Invest (n.d.); CADGAT (2019); Medeubayeva (2019); Kazakshtsan’s MIID (2019); Mining Technology (2018); Peyrouse (2008); ^aGrain.org (2008); ^bChen and Zhang (2017); ^cWang (2019); ^dADAL PROFI Website (n.d.); ^eCang (2017); ^fAstanaBuild (2015); ^gMining Technology (2018); ^hThe Astana Times (2018); ⁱKoskina (2019).

Table 2. Kazakhstan’s trade with China and the world, 2000–2019 (billions USD).

	Trade turnover with China			Trade turnover with the world (China’s share)
Year	Total	Export	Import	Total	Export	Import
2000	0.82	0.67	0.15	13.67 (6.03%)	8.68 (7.75%)	4.99 (3.03%)
2001	0.82	0.65	0.17	14.77 (5.54%)	8.49 (7.62%)	6.28 (2.74%)
2002	1.33	1.02	0.31	16.22 (8.21%)	9.64 (10.56%)	6.58 (4.76%)
2003	2.18	1.65	0.52	21.32 (10.21%)	12.92 (12.80%)	8.40 (6.23%)
2004	2.73	1.97	0.76	32.58 (8.30%)	20.08 (9.80%)	12.77 (5.94%)
2005	3.67	2.42	1.25	45.18 (8.13%)	27.85 (8.70%)	17.33 (7.22%)
2006	5.52	3.59	1.92	61.91 (8.91%)	38.24 (9.39%)	23.66 (8.14%)
2007	9.14	5.64	3.51	80.43 (11.37%)	47.75 (11.80%)	32.69 (10.73%)
2008	12.24	7.68	4.57	108.99 (11.23%)	71.17 (10.79%)	37.82 (12.07%)
2009	9.46	5.89	3.57	71.60 (13.21%)	43.20 (13.63%)	28.41 (12.56%)
2010	14.09	10.12	3.96	81.27 (17.33%)	57.24 (17.68%)	24.02 (16.50%)
2011	21.31	16.29	5.02	126.12 (16.9%)	88.11 (18.49)	38.01 (13.21%)
2012	23.98	16.48	7.50	136.82 (17.53%)	92.28 (17.86%)	44.54 (16.83%)
2013	22.74	14.37	8.36	133.50 (17.03%)	84.70 (16.97%)	48.80 (17.14%)
2014	17.16	9.80	7.36	120.75 (14.21%)	79.46 (12.33%)	41.30 (17.82%)
2015	10.57	5.48	5.09	76.52 (13.81%)	45.95 (11.93%)	30.57 (16.64%)
2016	7.88	4.21	3.67	61.95 (12.72%)	36.78 (11.46%)	25.17 (14.56%)
2017	10.49	5.80	4.69	78.10 (13.43%)	48.50 (11.95%)	29.60 (15.86%)
2018	11.69	6.31	5.38	94.77 (12.34%)	61.11 (10.32%)	33.66 (16.00%)
2019	14.39	7.82	6.57	96.08 (14.98%	57.72 (13.55%)	38.36 (17.12%)

Source: World Integrated Trade Solution data, World Bank, https://wits.worldbankorg/CountryProfile/en/Country/KAZ/

Figure 1. Kazakhstan’s exports to China: total value by category, 2000–2019.

Source: World Integrated Trade Solution data, World Bank, available at: https://wits.worldbank.org/CountryProfile/en/Country/KAZ/Year/2019/TradeFlow/EXPIMP/Partner/CHN/Product/all-groups (accessed 16 June 2021).

Figure 2. Kazakhstan’s exports to China: shares by category, 2000–2019.

Source: World Integrated Trade Solution data, World Bank, available at: https://wits.worldbank.org/CountryProfile/en/Country/KAZ/Year/2019/TradeFlow/EXPIMP/Partner/CHN/Product/all-groups (accessed 16 June 2021).

Figure 3. Kazakhstan’s fuel exports to China: total value and shares, 2000–2019.

Source: World Integrated Trade Solution data, World Bank, available at: https://wits.worldbank.org/CountryProfile/en/Country/KAZ/Year/2019/TradeFlow/EXPIMP/Partner/CHN/Product/all-groups (accessed 16 June 2021).

Figure 4. Kazakhstan’s imports from China: total value by category, 2000–2019.

Source: World Integrated Trade Solution data, World Bank, available at: https://wits.worldbank.org/CountryProfile/en/Country/KAZ/Year/2019/TradeFlow/EXPIMP/Partner/CHN/Product/all-groups (accessed 16 June 2021).

Figure 5. Kazakhstan’s imports from China: shares by category, 2000–2018.

Source: World Integrated Trade Solution data, World Bank, available at: https://wits.worldbank.org/CountryProfile/en/Country/KAZ/Year/2019/TradeFlow/EXPIMP/Partner/CHN/Product/all-groups (accessed 16 June 2021).

Table 3. Kazakhstan’s debt to and foreign direct investment (FDI) from China, 2014–2020.

Year	Debt to China (billion USD)	Total external debt	Debt to China/total external debt (% )	FDI from China (USD billion)	Total FDI	FDI from China/total FDI (%)	Gross domestic product (GDP)	Debt to and FDI from China/GDP (%)
2014	16.0	157	10.20	1.80	23.9	7.53	221.416	8.04
2015	13.2	153	8.63	0.83	15.2	5.46	184.388	7.61
2016	12.6	163	7.73	0.98	20.9	4.69	137.278	9.89
2017	12.8	167	7.66	1.08	20.8	5.19	166.806	8.32
2018	11.6	158	7.34	1.67	24.3	6.87	179.340	7.40
2019	10.4	157	6.62	1.70	24.3	7.00	181.666	6.67
2020	10.0	163	6.13	0.95	17.1	5.56	164.792	6.64

Source: Author’s compilation from figures retrieved from the Balance of Payments and External Debt, National Bank of Kazakhstan (2015–2021).

Table 4. Five of the 100 steps to reform put forward by former President Narbarzabev in 2015.

35. Introduction of agricultural land into the market turnover for the purpose of its efficient use. Introduction of amendments into the land code and other legislative acts. 36. Simplification of the procedure for changing the intended use of a land plot. Regular monitoring of the use of agricultural lands. Transfer of unused lands into the government fund for further privatization. 55. Attracting at least 10 transnational corporations into the processing sector to create export goods and ensure Kazakhstan’s entry into the world markets. Informing the international business of the new opportunities at international economic forum. 60. Attraction of strategic investors to develop milk and dairy products. The main goal is to ensure exports of nearly half of the output products to the markets of the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) member countries within three years. 61. Attraction of strategic investors for the development of meat production and processing. The main goal is to develop the resource base and the export of processed products.

Source: Kazakhstan Institute for Strategic Studies (n.d.).

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