Contradiction and restructuring in the Belt and Road Initiative: reflections on China’s pause in the ‘Go world’

Figures & data

Table 1. Potential economic and geopolitical contradictions of Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) loans.

	Short term	Medium and longer term
Impacts on debtor	Boost to economic growth and jobs.	Potential repayment problems and recurring costs.
	Regime maintenance (political business cycle).	Potentially reduced economic growth and reduced regime legitimacy.
	Environmental impacts (and resistance).	Potential political backlash against economic and environmental impacts, opacity and corruption in deals.
Impacts on China	Boost to economic growth.	Exposure to repayment risk and reduced economic growth.
	Domestic and global environmental impacts.	Reorientation of domestic growth model as a result of geopolitical backlash over this and other issues – ‘dual circulation’.
	Maintenance of domestic political settlement.	Maintenance of domestic political settlement.