Predictive values of anti-müllerian hormone, antral follicle count and ovarian response prediction index (ORPI) for assisted reproductive technology outcomes

Abstract

This prospective study was performed from June 2012 to June 2014 at Royan Institute to compare the predictive values of serum anti-müllerian hormone (AMH), antral follicle count (AFC) and ovarian response prediction index (ORPI) ([AFC × AMH]/age) for in vitro fertilisation/intracytoplasmic sperm injection (IVF/ICSI) cycle outcomes. Five hundred and fifty women included in the study with male factor and unexplained infertility were the first candidates for IVF/ICSI cycles. Serum AMH level was measured by a commercial ELISA kit and AFC was calculated by a transvaginal ultrasonography on day 2–3 of the menstrual cycle before starting ovarian stimulation. All women underwent IVF/ICSI cycles using a long standard protocol with gonadotropin-releasing hormone agonist. The receiver operating characteristic curves (ROC) analysis showed that both AMH and AFC were good predictors of ovarian response with an area under the curves (AUC) > 0.75; even it seems that AFC was being a better predictor. Combining these variables is necessary as ORPI will not improve the prediction value. All the variables had poor predictive ability (AUC <0.60) for clinical pregnancy and live birth rates. Logistic regression analysis showed the AMH less than 0.4 ng/ml and quality of transferred embryos were significant predictors for clinical pregnancy rate.

Keywords:

• Anti-müllerian hormone
• antral follicle count
• ovarian response prediction index
• live birth rate

Acknowledgements

The authors would like to thank their colleagues at the Royan Institute. The authors appreciate the deputy of research in Royan Institute who supported this paper financially.

Disclosure statement

There is no conflicts of interest.