The Roles of Heuristics, Avalanche Forecast, and Risk Propensity in the Decision Making of Backcountry Skiers

Abstract

Backcountry winter recreation accidents and deaths due to avalanches have grown considerably in recent decades. To better understand how individuals make decisions in avalanche terrain, this study examined the decision-making factors identified by McCammon (2004) that are said to be complicit in avalanche accidents. This study also explored risk-taking propensity and avalanche forecast variables in decision making. Results indicate that five decision-making factors, risk-taking propensity, and avalanche forecast variables influence the decision to ski a slope. Implications for how individuals make decisions in risky leisure pursuits are discussed and implications for outdoor recreation, and avalanche education are considered.

Keywords:

• avalanche education
• decision making
• heuristics
• outdoor recreation
• skiing

Acknowledgments

We wish to recognize the American Institute for Avalanche Research and Education, course providers, and AIARE instructors for their support of this project. We also would like to thank the American Alpine Club for providing partial funding and to Dr. Ian McCammon for his insight.

This research was supported in part by a grant from the American Alpine Club.

Notes

Telemark skis are a type of ski commonly used to access backcountry terrain.

The term “backcountry” refers to “mountainous terrain where avalanche hazard is not actively controlled by professional avalanche technicians before recreationists enter the area” (Haegeli et al., 2009).