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Original Articles

Building a Bayesian decision support system for evaluating COVID-19 countermeasure strategies

ORCID Icon, ORCID Icon, ORCID Icon, ORCID Icon, ORCID Icon & ORCID Icon
Pages 476-488 | Received 31 Oct 2020, Accepted 14 Dec 2021, Published online: 18 Jan 2022

Figures & data

Figure 1. State-space diagram of transitions between the three regimes for the two different types of strategies. (a) Strategies including lockdowns. (b) Strategies without lockdowns.

Figure 1. State-space diagram of transitions between the three regimes for the two different types of strategies. (a) Strategies including lockdowns. (b) Strategies without lockdowns.

Figure 2. Example of an attribute tree for COVID-19.

Figure 2. Example of an attribute tree for COVID-19.

Figure 3. SIRD disease dynamics.

Figure 3. SIRD disease dynamics.

Figure 4. Plots showing how the daily deaths evolve over time for one simulation within the stochastic model. (a) Strategies including lockdowns. (b) Strategies without lockdowns.

Figure 4. Plots showing how the daily deaths evolve over time for one simulation within the stochastic model. (a) Strategies including lockdowns. (b) Strategies without lockdowns.

Figure 5. Regional aggregate weighted life-years lost under different attribute weightings for each strategy with age stratification. Top left: COVID-19 deaths only. Top right: COVID-19 and delayed cancer diagnoses deaths equally weighted. Bottom left: COVID-19, delayed cancer diagnoses and poverty deaths equally weighted. Bottom right: COVID-19, delayed cancer diagnoses and poverty deaths custom weighting.

Figure 5. Regional aggregate weighted life-years lost under different attribute weightings for each strategy with age stratification. Top left: COVID-19 deaths only. Top right: COVID-19 and delayed cancer diagnoses deaths equally weighted. Bottom left: COVID-19, delayed cancer diagnoses and poverty deaths equally weighted. Bottom right: COVID-19, delayed cancer diagnoses and poverty deaths custom weighting.

Figure 6. Pareto plots showing the trade-off between life-years lost (LYL) due to poverty (deprivation) on one hand and COVID-19 and delayed cancer diagnoses on the other. The dashed lines represent examples of different attribute weightings with the one in red representing the critical weighting between lockdown and non lockdown strategies.

Figure 6. Pareto plots showing the trade-off between life-years lost (LYL) due to poverty (deprivation) on one hand and COVID-19 and delayed cancer diagnoses on the other. The dashed lines represent examples of different attribute weightings with the one in red representing the critical weighting between lockdown and non lockdown strategies.
Supplemental material

Supplemental Material

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