Future Prospects, Deprivation, and Criminality – A Longitudinal Birth Cohort Study

Figures & data

Table 1. Future goals combined with future prospects by socioeconomic background. Adolescents aged 12–13. NB: Row percentages.

	+/+	+/-	-/+	-/-	N
SES
Upper/upper middle class	86.9	4.8	1.0	7.3	2229
Lower middle class + self-employed	81.7	7.0	1.6	9.7	5587
Skilled blue collar	77.0	9.6	2.0	11.4	2916
Unskilled blue collar	72.2	9.8	3.7	14.3	2079
Unclassified	75.8	11.7	3.1	9.4	223
Economic problems
No social welfare	81.4	7.0	1.6	10.0	10981
Social welfare ≤3 years	73.3	10.9	2.8	17.0	1235
Social welfare > 3 years	71.3	11.8	4.4	12.5	915

Table 2. Subjective and objective deprivation by socioeconomic background. Adolescents aged 12–13. NB: Row percentages.

	Subj. deprived	Obj. deprived	Subj + obj. deprived	Non-deprived	N
SES
Upper/upper middle class	4.0	3.7	0.8	91.5	2206
Lower middle class + self-employed	4.4	10.3	2.4	82.9	5556
Skilled blue collar	5.7	15.0	3.8	75.5	2903
Unskilled blue collar	4.4	21.7	4.0	69.9	2074
Unclassified	6.3	20.5	3.2	70.0	317
Economic problems
No social welfare	4.6	10.2	2.4	82.8	10925
Social welfare ≤3 years	7.0	20.5	3.9	69.6	1223
Social welfare > 3 years	6.7	26.8	5.1	61.4	908

Table 3. Subjective and objective deprivation (at age 12–13) and criminal convictions (at age 15–30). Men and women. Column percentages.

Men	Subj. deprived	Obj. deprived	Subj. + obj. deprived	Non-deprived
Life-stage prevalence
Proportion convicted at age 15–30	32.3	46.0	53.5	24.1
Proportion convicted in youth (age 15–19)	18.4	30.9	38.2	13.7
Proportion convicted only as adults (age 20–30)	14.0	15.1	15.4	10.4
Conviction by offence types (age 15–30)
Violent crime	7.4	13.3	15.4	5.1
Vandalism	4.9	8.0	12.0	3.3
Theft	17.0	26.3	34.9	10.9
Fraud	6.6	10.7	10.8	3.8
Motoring offences	15.9	25.3	28.6	12.0
Drug offences	5.2	6.7	12.0	2.9
Incidence (age 15–30)
No. of convictions among those convicted	9.76	10.59	13.83	6.10
N (prevalence)	365	994	241	5013
N (incidence)	123	512	139	1355
Women	Subj. deprived	Obj. deprived	Subj + obj. Deprived	Non-deprived
Life-stage prevalence
Proportion convicted at age 15–30	8.0	13.3	17.3	4.7
Proportion convicted in youth (age 15–19)	3.1	7.1	10.0	2.0
Proportion convicted only as adults (age 20–30)	4.9	6.2	7.3	2.7
Conviction by offence types (age 15–30)
Violent crime	2.1	2.8	8.2	0.6
Vandalism	1.0	1.0	1.8	0.2
Theft	3.1	8.8	7.3	2.7
Fraud	1.4	4.9	5.5	1.3
Motoring offences	1.7	2.9	5.5	1.1
Drug offences	0.7	2.0	2.7	0.9
Incidence (age 15–30)
No. of convictions among those convicted	1.61	6.09	6.89	5.22
N (prevalence)	287	615	110	5431
N (incidence)	28	97	19	301

Table 4. Results from logistic regression analyses of the risk of being convicted of crime at age 15–30. Boys/men. Odds ratios.

	M 1	M 2	M 3	M 4	M 5
Future prospects
Non-deprived	1			1	1
Subj. deprived	1.57***			1.49***	1.43**
Obj. deprived	2.53***			2.26***	2.11***
Subj. + obj. deprived	3.79***			3.43***	3.28***
SES
Upper/upper middle class		1		1	1
Lower middle class + self-employed		1.60***		1.36**	1.26**
Skilled blue collar		2.24***		1.77***	1.54***
Unskilled blue collar		2.85***		1.99***	1.68***
Unclassified		3.37***		2.51***	1.67**
Economic problems
No social welfare			1		1
Social welfare ≤3 years			2.24***		1.72***
Social welfare > 3 years			3.17***		2.29***
Constant	−1.19	−1.46	−1.04	−1.57	−1.57

Figure 1. Results from logistic regression analysis of the risk of being convicted of offences at age 15–30 among men. Odds ratios for interaction variables with the reference category “neither subjective nor objective deprivation”, ”SES1-SES3”.

Table A: Interaction SES and deprivation. Risk for conviction at age 15–30. Boys/men. Odds ratios from logistic regressions.

Subjective/objective deprivation * SES
No subj. depr and no obj. depr (all SES)	1
Subj. depr: upper- and upper middle class	0.74
Subj. depr: lower middle class/self-employed	1.60**
Subj. depr: blue collar/unclassified	1.86***
Obj. depr: upper- and upper middle class	1.92*
Obj. depr: lower middle class/self-employed	1.99***
Obj. depr: blue collar/unclassified	2.99***
Subj. & obj. depr: upper- and upper middle class	3.76*
Subj. & obj. depr: lower middle class/self-employed	4.03***
Subj. & obj. depr: blue collar/unclassified	3.64***
Constant	−1.19