Ethnicizing Masses in Post-Bonn Afghanistan: The Case of the 2004 and 2009 Presidential Elections

Abstract

This article takes a comparative look at the 2004 and 2009 presidential elections to examine the critical role of ethnicity in post-Bonn politics. Afghanistan is home to a large number of sizeable ethnic groups. The national constitution and anthem have recognized 14 different major ethnic groups—making it truly the ‘land of ethnicities’. Since the establishment of the modern state in 1880–1901, ethnicity has had a drastic impact upon the political development, and conversely, political development greatly affected ethnic communities. Ethnicity gained in salience, particularly during the Soviet occupation, and gained the magic power to glue ethnic groups together during the civil wars, when state institutions failed, all platforms for constructive discourse were destroyed, and, above all, the resistance (jihad) evolved from an ideological cause into a mere ethnic struggle. The voting patterns in the 2004 and 2009 presidential elections clearly show that there still exists a great tendency of ethnic animosity on the part of one ethnic group against another on the fundamental question of power distribution, state legitimacy, and joint ownership over the new Afghanistan.

Keywords:

• Afghanistan
• Ethnicity
• Identity
• Ethnic Grievance
• Conflict
• Elections

Acknowledgements

This research is based on the author's extensive ethnographic work in Kabul (March 2013–December 2013). Desk research was supplemented by over 30 interviews with key political figures including MPs, senators, political leaders, campaign managers, civil society members, and leading academics. The author, to ensure interviewees' safety, has kept their identities anonymous.

The data for the 2004 election was gathered from the UN agencies and for the 2009 election from Afghanistan's Independent Election Commission and the Afghanistan Election Data Organization, based in Washington.

Notes

[1] Available at http://www.indexmundi.com/afghanistan/demographics_profile.html [Accessed 8 December 2013].

[2] The devastating ethno-regional conflicts in Kabul from 1992 to 1996, on the Shamali plains in its north 1996–2001, Herat in the west from 1992 to 1998, Mazar-e-Sharif massacres in 1997, 1998, and in Hazarajat in 1998, 2001 are amongst the wars that were the signal for possible ‘ethnic cleansing’, ‘ethnocides’, and ‘crimes against humanity’.

[3] In the sense that power was to be transferred from an interim president to an elected one (a scenario which failed in post-communist era), and, second, any of the candidates could have won and thus made the first peaceful transfer of power happen, although their chances were slim with the incumbent president set for victory.

[4] See http://repository.upenn.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1012&context=senior_seminar. And also http://afghanistanelectiondata.org/election/2004 [Accessed 25 May 2014].

[5] Presidential TV debate, broadcast live on Radio and TV of Afghanistan (RTA) (6–7 pm), 16 August 2009.

[6] Presidential campaign speech, Ghazi Stadium Kabul, 17 August 2009.

[7] Author's interview, Kabul City, 25 December 2013.

[8] Author's interview, Kabul City, 21 December 2013.

[9] http://www.afghanistan-analysts.org/the-split-uzbek-vote-bank-disenchantment-with-general-dostum-spreads-from-his-party-to-the-electorate [Accessed 28 May 2014].

[10] Author's interview, Kabul City, 22 December 2013.

[11] Author's interview with a Laghmani (Pashtun) Senator, Kabul City, 12 January 2013.

[12] Author's interview with a Pashtun ethno-regional leader from the South, Kabul City, 27 December 2013. Transfer of power in Afghan narratives implies the transfer of power from the Durranis, who historically have their base in Loya Kandahar (Kandahar, Urozgan, Hilmand, Zabul provinces), and have ruled since Afghanistan was founded by Ahmad Shah Durrani in 1774. Although the capital was moved to Kabul in 1776, and power transferred when Abdul Rahman Khan (1880–1901), who was born and bred in the north, ruled the country, and also with the subsequent rule of the Musahiban dynasty (1929–1978), which has its origin in Peshawar. But in Pashtun political discourse, their pedigrees are traced back to Durranis, thus Loya Kandahar.

[13] The recent story of Muhammad Ali 21 (Hazara) and Zakia 18 (Tajik) in Bamyan illustrates the degree to which inter-ethnic relationships and intermarriages are unacceptable. This might be a single story, but is a signifier of the issue in general. Available at http://www.nytimes.com/2014/03/31/world/asia/afghan-couple-finally-together-but-a-storybook-ending-is-far-from-assured.html?_r=0 [Accessed 25 May 2014].

[14] Author's interview with a Pashtun historian and professor at Kabul University, Kabul City, 5 December 2013. It is, however, important to note that Afghanistan is a country with a history of rebellions, and out of 28 rulers who ascended to the throne, only six have died natural deaths. Most of the rebellions have been mounted from the east against its southern cousins, except for 1929 (when all Pashtuns led by Musahiban toppled Kalakani's rule, who was of Tajik origin and from the Shamali plain) and 1978–1992 (when the communist regime was resisted against from all sides). The post-communist transfer of power fundamentally altered the power structure. The Tajiks had held power in Kabul, refused to hand it over to the next president, and remained in power until the Taliban captured the capital in 1996., This experience fell heavily on Pashtun ethnic consciousness, and they have over the past decade seen to be attempting to regain their historic hegemony. This is what makes the inter-Pashtun rebellions different to Pashtun–Tajik confrontations.

[15] Author's interview with Bashardost's campaign manager in Hazarajat, Kabul City, 22 December 2013.

[16] Author's interview with a Hazara MP, Kabul City, 25 December 2013.

[17] Author's interview with an Uzbek MP, Mazar-e-Sharif City, 24 December 2013.

[18] Author's interview with a Hazara Female Kabul MP, Kabul City, 21 January 2014.

[19] Author's interview with a Hazara Kabul MP, Kabul City, 15 January 2014.

[20] Naqibullah Faeeq, Uzbek MP from Faryab, Kabul City, 1 December 2013.

[21] Fawzia Koofi, Tajik MP from Badakhshan, Kabul City, 1 December 2013.