Assessing the impact of climate change scenarios on water resources in southern Brazil

Figures & data

Fig. 1 The Concórdia River drainage basin and its monitoring sites.

Table 1  Parameters showing model fit

Parameter	Runoff		Sediment
	Daily	Monthly	Daily	Monthly
COE	0.767	0.821	0.308	0.832
CMR	−0.0057	−0.0057	0.0430	0.2750

Fig. 2 Daily streamflow: simulated vs observed.

Fig. 3 Daily sediment yield: simulated vs observed.

Table 2  Daily weather data and annual precipitation

Scenario	PCP	TMAX	TMIN	TMED	RAD	HMD	WND	YMP
Baseline	4.16	23.44	15.04	19.25	6.77	83.00	2.82	1516.27
A2	4.14	26.60	18.36	22.48	12.70	83.10	2.95	1507.35
B2	4.04	25.68	17.56	21.62	12.67	82.28	2.85	1469.46
Note: PCP: precipitation (mm); TMAX: maximum temperature (°C); TMIN: minimum temperature (°C); TMED: mean temperature (°C); RAD: solar radiation (MJ m^2 −2 d^2−1); HMD: relative humidity of air (%); WND: wind speed (m/s); YMP: year mean precipitation (mm).

Table 3  Comparison between scenarios: simulated daily streamflow

Scenario	Streamflow (m^3/s)
	Sum	Average	Minimum	Maximum
Baseline	10.60449	0.97	0.102	37.02
A2	6.44090	0.59	0.098	71.44
B2	6.28238	0.57	0.096	46.53

Fig. 4 Comparison of annual streamflows: (a) average; (b) maximum; and (c) minimum.

Table 4  Maximum and minimum streamflows (m³/s) for different return periods

Return period	Minimum streamflow			Maximum streamflow
	Baseline	A2	B2	Baseline	A2	B2
10 years	0.14	0.12	0.12	25.75	37.66	30.01
20 years	0.10	0.11	0.11	30.58	45.40	35.69
30 years	0.08	0.10	0.10	33.36	49.85	38.96
40 years	0.07	0.09	0.10	35.32	52.99	41.26
50 years	0.06	0.09	0.09	36.84	55.42	43.05
100 years	0.02	0.08	0.08	41.52	62.93	48.56

Table 5  Reference streamflows (m³/s)

Reference streamflows	Scenario
	Baseline	A2	B2
Q80%	0.266	0.171	0.172
Q85%	0.220	0.164	0.166
Q90%	0.173	0.153	0.157
Q95%	0.148	0.140	0.144
Q98%	0.130	0.123	0.124

Table 6  Monthly average streamflows (m³/s)

Month	Scenario
	Baseline	A2	B2
January	31.71	23.66	25.61
February	32.99	16.38	16.50
March	28.41	14.39	14.79
April	19.30	15.63	11.76
May	23.71	21.23	16.41
June	29.13	15.97	13.26
July	31.91	8.99	9.85
August	31.94	9.77	13.13
September	32.93	17.17	16.78
October	33.58	27.28	24.78
November	28.98	22.74	21.50
December	28.49	21.93	25.10

Fig. 5 Frequency distribution of daily rainfall.

Table 7  Daily sediment yields: comparison between scenarios

Scenario	Sediment (t)
	Total	Average	Minimum	Maximum
Baseline	4020.050	367.94	5.86	116.300
A2	4024.241	368.31	5.69	203 700
B2	3193.870	292.32	5.47	146 000

Fig. 6 Comparison of annual sediment production of future scenarios and the baseline.

Fig. 7 Frequency curves for daily sediment production.