Simulation and control of the linked systems of water quantity–water quality–socio-economics in the Huaihe River basin

Figures & data

Figure 1. Location map of the study region.

Figure 2. Percent of river length for various water-quality grades of the Huaihe River basin.

Figure 3. Sketch of the water-resource calculation node.

Figure 4. Forecasted results of the parameters of socio-economic development level: (a) GDP per capita; (b) electricity generation per capita; (c) grain yield per hectare; and (d) livestock rearing per capita.

Figure 5. Linking relationship of the three sub-models.

Figure 6. Simulation results for water quantity: (a) flow at the Wangjiaba Hydro-junction cross-section, and (b) flow at the Bengbu Sluice cross-section.

Figure 7. Simulation results for water quality: (a) COD_Mn concentration at the Wangjiaba Hydro-junction cross-section, and (b) COD_Mn concentration at the Bengbu Sluice cross-section.

Table 1. Calculation conditions of the OCM model.

Calculation conditions	Present year	Planning years
	2005	2010, 2020 and 2030
Hydrological conditions	Observed data of inflow	Assumed values of inflow under 50% hydrologic frequency
Water environmental conditions	Statistical data on pollutant discharge and river load	Forecasted results on pollutant discharge and river load*
Socio-economic conditions	Statistical data on the socio-economic indices	Forecasted results on the socio-economic indices*

* Note: these data were obtained from the corresponding planning reports.

Table 2. Comparison of actual/forecasted and sustainable socio-economic scale of the Huaihe River basin.

Item	Units	2005	2010	2020	2030
Actual forecasted values
Total population	10^6 capita	169.56	173.06	178.68	182.09
Urban population	10^6 capita	39.73	62.29	90.31	110.79
GDP	10^9 RMB	1422.8	2287.1	4714.0	8554.0
Agricultural value added	10^9 RMB	1422.8	2287.1	4714.0	8554.0
Industrial value added	10^9 RMB	651.5	1019.5	1978.6	3492.9
Grain yield	10^6 Ton	19.07	28.45	59.22	107.98
Sustainable values
Total population	10^6 capita	145.09	111.40	118.22	126.58
Urban population	10^6 capita	40.92	38.68	57.05	74.08
GDP	10^9 RMB	1166.7	1500.1	3147.7	5929.3
agricultural value added	10^9 RMB	509.1	660.9	1303.3	2390.0
industrial value added	10^9 RMB	143.3	181.8	382.8	728.9
Grain yield	10^6 Ton	70.32	53.36	56.19	58.71
Overloaded value
Total population	10^6 capita	24.47	61.66	60.46	55.51
urban population	10^6 capita	0.00	23.60	33.26	36.71
GDP	10^9 RMB	256.1	787.0	1566.3	2624.7
agricultural value added	10^9 RMB	142.5	358.6	675.3	1102.9
industrial value added	10^9 RMB	47.3	102.7	209.4	351.0
Grain yield	10^6 Ton	6.10	24.54	23.43	21.17
Number of overloaded sub-regions		41	53	53	48

Table 3. Schemes for enhancing the sustainable scale.

Parameter Scheme	Period	τ	C0	Cn	rw	ra	ri
		(%)	(mg/L)	(mg/L)	(%)		(%)
Planning mode	2006–2010	20	100	78	2	0.53	64
	2011–2020	32	100	78	6	0.57	71
	2021–2030	46	100	78	11	0.60	78
Scheme 1	2006–2010	35	–	–	–	–	–
	2011–2020	60	–	–	–	–	–
	2021–2030	90	–	–	–	–	–
Scheme 2	2006–2010	–	100	–	–	–	–
	2011–2020	–	80	–	–	–	–
	2021–2030	–	50	–	–	–	–
Scheme 3	2006–2010	–	–	76	–	–	–
	2011–2020	–	–	70	–	–	–
	2021–2030	–	–	62	–	–	–
Scheme 4	2006–2010	–	–	–	6	–	–
	2011–2020	–	–	–	18	–	–
	2021–2030	–	–	–	41	–	–
Scheme 5	2006–2010	–	–	–	–	0.58	–
	2011–2020	–	–	–	–	0.64	–
	2021-2030	–	–	–	–	0.80	–
Scheme 6	2006–2010	35	100	–	–	0.58	68
	2011–2020	60	80	–	–	0.64	77
	2021–2030	80	60	–	–	0.75	80
Scheme 7	2006–2010	35	90	76	6	0.58	68
	2011–2020	60	77	70	18	0.64	77
	2021–2030	90	50	62	41	0.80	85
Scheme 8	2006–2010	45	70	70	20	0.57	72
	2011–2020	65	60	65	35	0.66	78
	2021–2030	81	50	62	38	0.75	81

Note: Values of the planning mode refer to the forecasted values according to the planning-development goals of the socio-economy; for the schemes, – refers to the forecasted value of the corresponding year in the planning mode. All of the values in Table 3 are the average values for the entire river basin.

Table 4. Sustainable and overloaded socio-economic scales for each scheme.

Scheme	Level years	Sustainable population (10^6 capita)	Overloaded population (10^6 capita)	Sustainable GDP (10^9 RMB)	Overloaded GDP (10^9 RMB)	Number of overloaded sub-regions
Scheme 1	2010	116.21	56.85	1555.0	732.1	51
	2020	131.16	47.52	3404.5	1309.5	48
	2030	152.00	30.09	6782.1	1771.9	40
Scheme 2	2010	111.40	61.66	1500.1	787.0	53
	2020	118.97	59.71	3163.1	1550.9	52
	2030	130.51	51.58	6061.7	2492.3	46
Scheme 3	2010	112.65	60.41	1512.0	775.1	53
	2020	119.32	59.36	3166.4	1547.6	52
	2030	128.08	54.01	5973.1	2580.9	46
Scheme 4	2010	111.58	61.48	1505.2	781.9	53
	2020	119.14	59.54	3198.1	1515.9	53
	2030	130.65	51.44	6265.8	2288.2	47
Scheme 5	2010	113.82	59.24	1537.5	749.6	53
	2020	122.01	56.67	3259.8	1454.2	52
	2030	136.08	46.01	6428.8	2125.2	46
Scheme 6	2010	119.67	53.39	1613.8	673.3	51
	2020	142.40	36.28	3759.9	954.1	43
	2030	167.71	14.38	7535.2	1018.8	35
Scheme 7	2010	122.10	50.96	1642.6	644.5	51
	2020	145.95	32.73	3875.0	839.0	43
	2030	212.61	0.00	9729.6	0.0	22
Scheme 8	2010	138.02	35.04	1860.7	426.4	47
	2020	159.23	19.45	4256.8	457.2	40
	2030	186.36	0.00	8491.9	62.1	25

Figure 8. Comparison between the population and GDP in the schemes and planning mode.

Table 5 Characteristic values of the parameters in Scheme 8.

	τ	C0	Cn	rw	ra	ri
	(%)	(mg/L)	(mg/L)	(%)		(%)
Maximum	100	50	117	56	0.82	98
Minimum	55	50	20	13	0.65	71
Mean	83	50	60	36	0.75	82