Climate change impacts on surface water resources in the Rheraya catchment (High Atlas, Morocco)

Figures & data

Table 1. Catchment characteristics.

Catchment	Area (km^2)	Perimeter (km)	Average altitude (m)	Altitude min (m)	Altitude max (m)	Average slope (%)
Rheraya	225	78	2160	1027	4167	19.1

Figure 1. Location of the Rheraya catchment.

Figure 2. Mean inter-annual (a) daily precipitation, (b) temperature and (c) runoff for the Rheraya catchment.

Table 2. Med-CORDEX simulations available at 50 km resolution (MED 44 grid). GUF: Goethe University Frankfurt; IPSL:Institut Pierre Simon Laplace; CNRM: Centre National de Recherches Météorologiques; ICTP: International Centre for Theoretical Physics; CMCC: Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici.

Institute	RCM	GCM
GUF	CCLM	MPI-ESM
IPSL	LMDZ	IPSL
CNRM	ALADIN	CNRM
ICTP	RegCM4	HAD
CMCC	CCLM	CMCC

Figure 3. Correlation between PET computed using the Oudin, Hargreaves-Samani and Penman-Monteith formulas.

Figure 4. Observed and RCM temperatures during the reference period 1989–2005.

Figure 5. Observed and RCM precipitation during the reference period 1989–2005.

Table 3. The precipitation change signal (%) between 1989–2005 and 2049–2065 for each climate model and scenario.

	CMCC	CNRM	ICTP	GUF	IPSL
RCP4.5	−15.9	−7.8	−37.7	−11.2	−39.6
RCP8.5	−22.4	−8.0	−49.7	−31.0	−44.8

Figure 6. Projected precipitation for the future period 2049–2065.

Table 4. The temperature change signal (°C) between 1989–2005 and 2049–2065 for each climate model and scenario.

	CMCC	CNRM	ICTP	GUF	IPSL
RCP4.5	+1.9	+1.2	+1.0	+1.4	+1.5
RCP8.5	+3.0	+2.0	+3.3	+2.3	+2.5

Figure 7. Projected temperature for the future period 2049–2065.

Table 5. Calibration and validation results of the MWBM.

Calibration period	Calibration							Validation KGE′
	Rf (%)	DRf (%)	SMSC (mm)	Train (°C)	Tsnow (°C)	MaxMelt (%)	KGE′
Humid years	0.80	0.43	140.06	4.20	−0.90	0.53	0.74	0.56
Dry years	0.90	0.30	360.06	5.00	−15.00	0.79	0.64	0.50
Period1	0.54	0.45	124.91	4.41	−0.91	0.56	0.80	0.52
Period2	0.48	0.27	125.59	4.81	−14.98	0.33	0.75	0.49
Running1	0.68	0.37	100.51	4.68	−5.08	0.71	0.76	0.57
Running2	0.35	0.29	128.41	2.40	−3.51	0.51	0.75	0.61

Table 6. Calibration and validation results of GR2M.

Calibration period	Calibration						Validation KGE′
	X1 (mm)	X2 (–)	Train (°C)	Tsnow (°C)	MaxMelt (%)	KGE′
Humid years	822.31	0.99	3.95	−0.06	0.58	0.79	0.62
Dry years	285.60	1.05	4.70	−3.85	0.59	0.87	0.68
Period1	653.77	1.04	5.00	−4.52	0.50	0.81	0.49
Period2	1392.68	1.04	1.59	0.00	0.58	0.86	0.49
Running1	689.39	1.04	4.42	−0.01	0.57	0.83	0.55
Running2	1439.67	0.97	2.84	0.00	0.50	0.84	0.44

Figure 8. Observed and simulated mean runoff cycles for the reference period 1989–2009, according to different sets of calibrated parameters for the GR2M and MWBM.

Figure 9. Comparison of the projected changes in runoff with delta-change and quantile-perturbation methods.

Figure 10. Projected changes in runoff from five RCM simulations for the future period 2049–2065.

Figure 11. Projected changes in snow reservoir levels from five RCM simulations for the future period 2049–2065.