Stochastic multi-criteria decision making framework based on SMAA-VIKOR for reservoir flood control operation

ABSTRACT

In reservoir flood control operation, candidate reservoir operation alternatives are evaluated, ranked and selected by a multi-criteria decision making (MCDM) method. However, deterministic methods cannot handle MCDM problems where uncertainties exist in both criteria performance values (PVs) and criteria weights (CWs). To solve the issue, a SMAA-VIKOR model integrating stochastic multicriteria acceptability analysis (SMAA) theory with the Viekriterijumsko Kompromisno Rangiranje (VIKOR) method is established based on Aydogan and Ozmen (2017). Moreover, we conduct a comprehensive evaluation of the model’s decision making results, including risk assessment and sensitivity analysis. The case study applied to a flood control system in Dadu River in China indicates that the SMAA-VIKOR model can quickly identify the optimal alternative that meets the subjective preferences of decision makers, and has remarkable advantages compared to the traditional SMAA-2 model and the deterministic VIKOR method, which can provide theoretical support for making a robust reservoir release decision.

KEYWORDS:

• reservoir flood control operation
• multi-criteria decision making
• stochastic multicriteria acceptability analysis
• global sensitivity analysis

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Correction

Editor A. Fiori Associate Editor E. Davies

Editor A. Fiori Associate Editor E. Davies

Additional information

Funding

This work was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 52079037, 52009029); the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities (Grant No. B200202032); and the China Postdoctoral Science Foundation (Grant No. 2020T130169).