Combining a data-driven approach with seasonal forecast data to predict reservoir water volume in the Mediterranean area

ABSTRACT

Prolonged droughts and water scarcity have become more frequent in recent years, exacerbating the problem of artificial reservoir management in the Mediterranean area. This study proposes a methodology that combines a Nonlinear AutoRegressive network with eXogenous input (NARX) data-driven model with seasonal forecast (SF) data, with the aim to predict the water volume stored in reservoirs at a mid-term scale, as requested by the local authority. The methodology is applied to four Sicilian reservoirs that experienced water scarcity in the recent past. SFs produced at the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting are used to force the NARX models. Also, the reservoirs are in a typical data-scarce environment, where very few or no measurements at all are available. The results show that the NARXs have the capability to reproduce the volumes stored in the considered reservoirs for the investigated period up to four months in advance. The performance of the modelling system strictly depends on: (i) the quality of climate forecasts and (ii) the strength of the autocorrelation for the water volumes.

KEYWORDS:

• NARX
• Mediterranean area
• data-scarce environment
• data driven
• seasonal forecasts
• bias correction
• water management in reservoirs

Editor A. Castellarin; Associate Editor N. Ilich

Editor A. Castellarin; Associate Editor N. Ilich

Acknowledgements

The set of observed data was provided by the Autorità di Bacino della Regione Sicilia (Basin Authority of the Sicilian Region). More information about the dataset is available via the following link: https://pti.regione.sicilia.it/portal/page/portal/PIR_PORTALE/PIR_LaStrutturaRegionale/PIR_PresidenzadellaRegione/PIR_AutoritaBacino

The seasonal forecast dataset is freely available through the data access system of Copernicus Climate Data Store at the following link: https://cds.climate.copernicus.eu/#!/home.

The authors thank the Autorità di Bacino della Regione Sicilia for providing its dataset.

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the authors.

Supplementary material

Supplemental data for this article can be accessed online at https://doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2023.2189521

Additional information

Funding

The authors declare that no funds, grants, or other support were received during the preparation of this manuscript. The authors have no relevant financial or non-financial interests to disclose.