Projection of meteorological drought in Türkiye’s Mediterranean region based on multi-model ensemble from CMIP6

ABSTRACT

In this study, drought projections in Türkiye’s Mediterranean region under future climate scenarios (Shared Socioeconomic Pathways SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5) were investigated using the standardized precipitation index (SPI) and standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI). A multi-model ensemble (MME) was created with the General Circulation Models (GCMs) that best predicted observed precipitation and temperature values using Artificial Neural Network (ANN)-based statistical downscaling. The MME outputs assessed changes in drought indices for 2021–2060 and 2061–2100, compared to the baseline period of 1979–2020. Results indicate that future drought indices calculated by SPEI are more severe than those using SPI, highlighting the significance of potential evapotranspiration (PET) in drought monitoring. There is a notable increase in PET, especially in coastal regions, projected to rise to 120 mm/year by the century’s end under SSP5-8.5. Due to significant temperature increases, the expected rise in drought severity and frequency is more pronounced in mountainous areas.

KEYWORDS:

• Mediterranean basin
• drought
• projections
• CMIP6
• multi-model ensemble

Editor K. Soulis; Associate Editor D. Peng

Editor K. Soulis; Associate Editor D. Peng

Acknowledgements

We gratefully acknowledge the Turkish State Meteorological Service in Türkiye for providing the meteorological data used in this study.

Author contributions

Veysel Gumus: conceptualization, methodology, formal analysis, writing – original draft supervisor. Mehmet Seker: software, formal analysis, writing – original draft, data curation.

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).

Data availability statement

The datasets used and/or analysed during the current study are available from the corresponding author upon reasonable request.

Additional information

Funding

This work was supported by the Harran University Scientific Research Council (HUBAP) [22118].